#1 By: kdenigris, August 29th, 2018 15:57
Struggling on how to approach this pick in a .5 PPR (2RB 2WR 1 flex). In full it seems like a WR-WR start is the obvious play with RBs dominating the top half of the first round but at .5 PPR I’m tempted to grab a RB at 1.08 and go WR at 2.05.
In all of the mocks I’ve done I’m effectively guaranteed Nuk/OBJ/Julio or Hunt/CMC at 1.08. On the turn it seems like my most likely outcome has been Michael Thomas, Adams, AJG vs Freeman/Howard/McKinnon.
I feel like I’m falling victim to the CMC hype but a start of him and Michael Thomas is staring to sound real appealing but the thought of passing on Nuk or OBJ feels insane. That 2nd bunch of RBs all scare the shit out of me for one reason or another so I feel like my options are WR-WR or reach a bit at 1.08 for a RB and WR at 2.05. Either way I’d plan on targeting WR-WR in rounds 3-4 (Diggs Cooper Thielan Landry etc).
Would be interested in some other perspectives.
@FF_Contrarian @Cort @dcaban
#2 By: Matt, August 29th, 2018 16:11
I know you didn't ask my advice, but I'll give it anyway. In a pretty competitive league (I finished dead last last year; started DJ then Amari and never dug my way out) that is the exact same format (2/2/1, 0.5 PPR), the guy at 1.08 started OBJ/CMC. CMC was the 11th RB taken. I wouldn't reach for him at 1.08 when you know you're going to get a top 3 WR. There's a not-unreasonable chance that CMC (or another stud) will fall to you. What I would do is go WR in the 1st and then if CMC falls to you, grab him, but if not, you can get 1 of either Keenan or MT (Keenan went 2.04, but if that guy had taken CMC he'd be there), AJG or D Adams.
It feels to me that there is a pretty big tier drop off after RB11, after WR6, and after TE1. That means that there are 18 premium players, and at 1.08/2.04, you are guaranteed 2 of them. And it's doubtful that you'll be left deciding between Fournette and Cook (I'm guessing those are part of the 2nd bunch of RBS?). So I would start with WR and then hope that some of your targets fall to you in round 2. Hopefully those more qualified than I can give you more sound advice.
#3 By: Shawn Siegele , August 29th, 2018 16:26
I'm not out on CMC at 1.08. As I mentioned in the Takeaways column, I've seen him go at 1.09, and I don't think .5 PPR is going to end up hurting him as much as most think.
That said, I'd still go Hopkins here. I've seen Julio fall into the middle of Round 2, and you might have an outside shot at him there in this format.
I know a lot of the guys like Hunt in that range as well, and that's not a bad pick either.
#4 By: kdenigris, August 29th, 2018 16:31
So sounds like you’d say the move is grab a tier 1 WR, hope CMC or Hunt happen to fall to 2.05, if not grab another stud WR of the Julio/MT/Adams variety?
#5 By: Shawn Siegele , August 29th, 2018 16:38
I probably would, but I certainly wouldn't criticize Hunt, CMC, or Gordon there either.
I love the RBs in R5-9 more than ever, so I don't think you're going to get locked out by waiting (although they're likely to be slightly more expensive in .5).
#6 By: Dennis, August 29th, 2018 21:00
I heard @hrr5010 note to keep Melvin G in mind in a similar spot if he fell and i would certainly. But id prefer to go Hop, Odell, Kamara if u can get one of them. maybe barklays hammie makes him fall. but id take d hop over all these guys. he could be the wr1 if watson is healthy. @dcaban in a mock with Shawn CC'd made a bit of a case that he could realisitically be the wr1.
then id probably look for CMC or keenan. i dont think ull get a crack at hunt but id take him over both of those in r2.
i had this conversation w a buddy today. Hunt outscored Keenan by about 30 pts in 0.5ppr last year and if healthy he may again, but i discount a bit cuz of 1) avg. games missed for rbs vs wr is somewhere btw 1.5-2x, and risk of catastrophic injury is worse. so the chance to get comparable in pts w a WR not only approximates the expected value of a similarly priced tier rb, it also 2) gives u a bigger positional advantage usually. (i mean like if hunt smashes he may be the rb5-6. but if keenan smashes hes more likely to be the wr2 for positional advantabe. its kind of like incorporating expected value and, VORP with opportunitiy cost in mind to use all the nerdy terms i can think of. since there RBs later are so promising but the wrs later r ok) thats my 2 cents, to go along with @mateoloco unsolicited program
#7 By: Jason, August 29th, 2018 21:54
@FF_Contrarian not sure I’ve seen this mentioned a bunch this year, but do you think WR scoring for WR1s could ever get back to the 2013-2014 levels? The past two years (last year espevially) top WR PPG was way down.
I’m still comfortable going ZRB as there are far more week winners you can find through waivers at RB, but if top WRs should start scoring like they did a few years ago again... with ADP where it is it could be amazing. Maybe that won’t happen with league trends, better #1 cbs, etc?
#8 By: kdenigris, August 30th, 2018 10:08
As always seems to be the case- the first few rounds I kept getting sniped on my target the pick before I was up. Wound up missing CMC by 1 pick in round two so I started:
OBJ, MT, Amari (got sniped on Diggs)...
Thought about Ju Ju in the 4th but already having my flex filled I decided on grabbing my first RB in Royce Freeman (possibly a bit of a reach). From there I went Burkhead/Jamal Williams at 5/6 before bouncing back to WR and grabbing Fuller in the 7th. Thought about Robby Anderson in the 8th but Chris Thompson seemed like too sweet a deal at this stage to pass up. (haven't seen much ZRB love on him this year, why?). Grabbed Jack Doyle at 9 at which point the starting caliber WR/RB had all but evaporated so I turned my attention to some Rotoviz recommended dart throws-- DJ Moore at 10 and Godwin at 11. Finished out the position players with Rivers and Rishard Matthews
RB: Royce (TBD)
RB: Williams (TBD)
WR: Michael Thomas
TE: Jack Doyle
Over all pretty happy with the squad.
#9 By: Dennis, August 30th, 2018 10:36
thompson has an injury history, and his ADP is high compared maybe to guys like breida, Gio, ekeler who prob have more upside w an injury i think?
i like ur team overall. good WRs high upside rbs
@FF_Contrarian im curious ur thoughts here on KDEn's early picks. how say might u rank: mike thomas, keenan allen, gronk, CMac at the turn here if they all happened to fall. and do u like coop if Diggs is gone banking that jarvis comes back to u? how early do u go for Ertz, have u taken him in the 3rd or do u tend to go cooper, landry there then see if he falls to 4...
#10 By: kdenigris, August 30th, 2018 12:00
Agree, but I think that injury history is baked in to an 8th round pick for a guy who finished as the RB 10 in PPR points/game. The rest of those guys probably need an injury to be startable in fantasy whereas (IF HEALTHY) Thompson should be a viable backend BR2/Flex in PPR. He avoided the PUP list and according to Rotoworld he's expected to be ready week 1.
The 2nd round started: MelGo, Cook, Keenan, CMC and then I took Thomas at 2.05. Gronk went at 2.08. Would like to hear his thoughts on Cooper in the 3rd (Diggs went the pick before- Arob, DT, Baldwin, Tate, Landry were next WR up) and
my plan was to hope Jarvis fell to me in the 4th but I got sniped the pick before yet again.
#11 By: Shawn Siegele , August 30th, 2018 12:16
@FantasyNerd I think it's certainly possible. It was just a couple of years ago that it seemed fair to discount the numbers from the great 2014 receiver class because it was "so easy" for WRs to score. I would expect the numbers to tick back up, but the really big scores are going to be unusual, just like the really big scores recently from a handful of RBs are going to be hard to sustain.
But there are also some structural reasons the numbers could stay a little bit lower, including teams learning the wisdom of running out of spread formations around the goal line.
@kdenigris That looks like a heck of a team. I would have probably preferred Anderson to Thompson, but the team looks deep and talented.
@JollyG804 In terms of rankings, it depends on what you're trying to accomplish with your roster, but I like Allen and CMC about evenly, then probably Gronk unless you're already overweight on him, then Thomas. I talked about how I was split between Cooper and Landry in the Apex draft. I really like Cooper there but lean slightly to Landry. If your format has Landry in R4, then it may be worth the risk.
#12 By: kdenigris, August 30th, 2018 12:24
Yup definitely may live to regret not grabbing Anderson, appreciate it though. My thought on Cooper over Landry there was I felt I had 2 pretty safe guys in terms of volume/floor win OBJ and MT so I could go for the swing-for-the-fences play in Cooper, who I think has the chance to win weeks vs. the steady floor of Landry.
#13 By: thickfreakness, August 31st, 2018 12:29
I'm also 1.08 in a 0.5 PPR league drafting the night before the season, but it's only 10 teams. I have three redraft teams total and I like to diversify. I already have OBJ in one league and I think after AB and Nuk, he's the only WR really worth a first rounder in 10 team.
If AB or Nuk don't fall, I'm struggling between Fournette, Hunt or CMC in round 1. If I go that route, I'd take whoever falls of Julio, MT, OBJ, Keenan in round 2.
#14 By: kdenigris, August 31st, 2018 13:01
I'd be shocked if Nuk wasn't there at 1.08. I feel like in .5 PPR (in no particular order) Gurley Bell DJ Zeke Barkley Kamara Brown are going 1-7 95% of the time. In a 10 teamer with less hurdles at the turn, I think you can be fairly confident in snagging Nuk at 1.08 and Hunt/CMC at 2.03.
#15 By: thickfreakness, August 31st, 2018 14:00
I mostly agree, but we're in Texas with some Houston folks (including myself) so there's a chance Nuk goes in top 7. Guy at the first pick always defers on RBs and told me he might even take Nuk at 1, AB would still go in top 7 and I'd be stuck in my worried situation. Home league woes. I just want to beat my friends.