#1 By: RotoViz, May 25th, 2018 14:24
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2018/05/20-rounds-of-death/
Last week a bunch of my favorite people participated in a best ball league for charity, and thanks go out to our ringleader Pat Thorman. Winnings from the 2017 MFL10 of Death went to the National Coalition Against Domestic Violence, and I’d like to mention Sal Stefanile for helping to set that up and for…
#2 By: dkpsports, May 27th, 2018 03:24
Super helpful post. it helps to get insight into how the experts would actually draft in a competitive league, as well as balancing the positive/negatives which can be hard to quantify in the individual Rotoviz posts.
A couple thoughts and questions: You seem to like so many of the receivers in the ninth round (as do I), yet you picked up Goodwin in the 8th. Goodwin doesn't seem to have much upside but I suppose may be due to best ball format?
and also. I can't help that you picked up Diggs rather early compared to ADP, but does this partially reflect the fact that you planned on using 3rd and 4th round picks on TEs?
#3 By: Shawn Siegele , May 27th, 2018 11:53
Thanks for the kind words about the article. I'm fairly high on Goodwin's upside. His volume jumped when Garcon was out last year, but part of that was also the move to Garoppolo. Having a year in the offense, a dynamic QB, and upgraded peripheral weapons should create an explosive unit that scores in bunches. Whether Goodwin is the beneficiary of many of the passing scores is another question, but I like the vertical players in best ball, especially vertical players who are not just vertical players, which is where I expect Goodwin to fall this year.
While I like a lot of receivers from that next group from a value perspective, Robby Anderson is the one guy I really like for upside. Unfortunately, the possibility of some type of suspension and the QB uncertainty kept me on other guys, but he was the top player on my board for several rounds. If we get some clarity on a few of the red flag issues, I'd be willing to take him much, much higher.
The Diggs situation is tricky. On one hand, you don't want to get caught in a situation where you're constantly reaching - and overall, my roster ended up with good value related to ADP - but in some of the early rounds it's sometimes the only play. In thinking it through, 1) With Allen gone, he was easily my top-ranked guy other than CMC (which I addressed briefly in the article), 2) ADP suggests he might come back around. 3) In an expert draft he's got almost no chance to come back around. 4) Cooper has a better chance of coming back. 5) If nobody else comes back, Travis Kelce is my structural target.
So, I guess that's a long way of saying exactly what you proposed.
It would have been interesting to see how the team would have changed if I had taken Cohen instead of Hogan in Round 7. I could have grabbed a WR in Round 9, or stayed with J. Williams and stuck with a 4-RB lineup, then added Coleman and C. Rogers late at WR (or something similar) instead of Ekeler and Carson.
#4 By: dkpsports, May 28th, 2018 03:16
Thank you @FF_Contrarian.
I've been reading the site since 2014, and I've learned so much. Just wanted to say thank you now, before this whole place gets more active. =)
#5 By: Shawn Siegele , May 29th, 2018 01:44
Really appreciate it. We've had a blast on the site over the last 5 years, and this summer should be the best yet.
#6 By: Ryan Blakeslee, June 21st, 2018 18:17
This is less of an article and more of a treasure map. Seeing the justifications and thought process behind yours and opponents picks is so valuable. I have many questions, if this were a podcast I’d fill up an hour. I will reply with a few soon...
#7 By: hrr5010, June 21st, 2018 21:28
#8 By: Ryan Blakeslee, June 21st, 2018 21:36
Thanks will check it out.
#9 By: Ryan Blakeslee, June 23rd, 2018 14:09
@FF_Contrarian sorry for the long post...feel free to pick n choose what to answer.
Before the draft started Pat Thorman shared the draft slots. I jokingly told him with you at 5 Vegas could set an insanely high number that your pick would be AB. If you were higher than 5th, what RBs would you take ahead of AB?
With high turnover at RB position both Barkley and McKinnon have been on my radar to join this years top 12. Your thoughts?
I know you love Diggs and want to be there for the elite ascension. Is Baldwin’s situation better enough (worse def- gamescript & less comp) to take him over SD?
Typically in rounds 6-7 I can get one or maybe two of Fuller, Hogan or Cohen. Cohen is the guy I normally skip because WF/CH as my WR4 is too great to pass on. I know your thoughts on Cohens upside- would you take him consistently over these WRs?
Absolutely love your QB selection and where you took them. Regarding that “flat spot” of RB/WR talent- I love Gio and like Golladay. Should they be taken before or after those upside QBs?
Finally some of my favorite picks are RBs at end of draft: Hines, Ekeler, Brieda, Yeldon. Are these guys all in the same bucket or does one of them have greater breakout or fakeout potential?
#10 By: Shawn Siegele , June 25th, 2018 09:02
Hey @FF_Fiend, thanks for the fun comments. It would be difficult taking any RB above Brown in this format, but I like the Big 3 in general, although Bell and Johnson have some new risks this year and Gurley is likely to fall well back from his insane 2017.
Barkley appears to be an immediate candidate for superstardom, and McKinnon should finally be what we were always hoping for in Minnesota. I doubt he has a ceiling in the mid-20s PPG, but should the top guys finish with a more restrained number in the 18-19 range, he could be a candidate to finish No. 1 overall.
I continue to like Baldwin, but the differences in the way the teams should run their offenses keeps Diggs pretty easily above Baldwin for me. With a sustained run of good health - which is always difficult for any NFL player to achieve - we could see Diggs break into the top tier in targets. Baldwin is more reliant on crazy efficiency numbers.
I love Cohen, but I definitely wouldn't take him over Fuller, who is wildly undervalued.
I would probably be looking for Gio to fall or simply to take a player from the next RB group you mention. Golladay is definitely intriguing, but I think Cort made some good points about him in his Friday article.
Hines is definitely the guy to target there. It would surprise me if he doesn't lead the Indy backs in touches. Ekeler and Brieda are also guys I try to get almost everywhere. Yeldon is also a solid pick when he's absolutely free, but the team seems to realize they should have used Grant more.