#1 By: RotoViz, May 12th, 2017 14:26
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2017/05/2017-air-yards-projection-countdown-rishard-matthews-wr-36/
Now that the draft is over I’m excited to report that I’ve finished my air yards model for NFL receivers.1 Well-validated models are the best and most unbiased forecast of NFL receiver production there is. However there are things that they cannot capture that are important to consider. Changes to team composition, injuries, coaching changes, and…
#2 By: Tj Langley, May 12th, 2017 15:52
Your header predicts 14.7 PPR ppg, however, your results indicate a ceiling of 12.8 ppg.
What am I missing?
#3 By: Geoff Hendricks, May 13th, 2017 11:48
If I'm not mistaken, the header is only Air Yards, whereas the conclusion is a combination of all the analysis.
#4 By: Geoff Hendricks, May 13th, 2017 11:57
Josh, love this style of analysis, the range of outcomes is key and helps consider upside / downside much more easily.
I guess one question to ask in this case is if Davis isn't good enough for whatever reason, could Matthews make another late season push. Not that it's worth including in the analysis but might be another reasons he's a good WR choice near his ADP.
What's your plan for these types of articles going forward?
I'd love to get a look the Tampa offense (Evans & DJax), Baltimore's two guys, Chargers O, Jac O, Denvers two WRs. Also, any of the WRs around rounds 8-12 seem like good candidates for this type of article.
Thanks for your work so far!
#5 By: Peter Howard, May 15th, 2017 00:33
interesting stuff, thanks, appreciate the depth you went into it all.
I keep placing Thielen nd Matthews pretty close together and from what I can gather Matthews is favored still despite the freefall, not so sure about it.
#6 By: Josh Hermsmeyer, May 19th, 2017 17:52
Sorry for the late response guys. The forum is supposed to ping me when I get comments, but no dice.
TJ - Yeah, FF_Gringo is right. I use three different models to try and figure these players out. The 12.8 is a back of the napkin and the model is a machine learning deal.
@FF_Gringo Absolutely Matthews could make another push. I just think Davis is a good enough of a prospect to make it more likely than not that he's the WR1 this year.
My plan is to do all 36 players, then do a wrap up article with full projections for every player. At that point I will probably adjust the rankings based on my analysis and re-rank the guys into broad tiers.
@pahowdy I like Theilen much more. Look for him in a write up soon.