#1 By: RotoViz, April 18th, 2017 12:52
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2017/04/2017-rb-prospect-lab-scores-post-combine/
The RB Prospect Lab uses age, weight, speed, agility, rushing production, TD production, and receiving numbers to give a scaled projection of a player’s NFL fantasy prospects. In the pre-combine edition, I provided a full list of scores from the last two years of projections. The Lab confirmed the community consensus on players like Ezekiel…
#2 By: Shawn Siegele , April 19th, 2017 03:10
Anything that jumps out when looking at the Prospect Lab, the staff rankings, Kevin's success model, and the Scouting Index results together?
Do any of the top guys look like must-avoids? Anybody projected in the 2nd round of rookie drafts look like a priority target?
#3 By: Jason, April 19th, 2017 09:04
I still like Elijah McGuire. Doesn't really stand out or get knocked by any of the models it seems and his film looks good. Good size and some really nice receiving highlights. Won't reach on him but will monitor him closely.
Foreman's comps scared me a little. Not going to go crazy on him in re-draft but his price should still be cheap. Love me some CMC and McNichols.
Edit: Will add that Foreman's comps scared me with respect to rookie year production (I only play redraft). The price and situation would have to be really good for me to pay more than a later round (8-9+) pick for him I think. Still should have a great career though.
#4 By: Michael Cullum, April 19th, 2017 09:55
Looking at the info that Graham Barfield pulls together about running backs, Foreman may have benefited from the same things that propped up Andre Williams, which scares me when I see Andre Williams as a comp there.
The big knock on Williams coming out was that he played in spread out offense with lots of WR's on the field (and thus few defenders in the box), so he always had room to run. Graham noted that 2016 Foreman faced faced 8+ defenders in the box on 17% of his snaps, and 30% is the average across draft eligible running backs. Seems like that would leave wide open running lanes, and his physical/production comp to Andre Williams feels too accurate to feel good about Foreman.
#5 By: Shawn Siegele , April 19th, 2017 19:35
Those are good notes on McGuire, @FantasyNerd. He tends to get lost a little in the discussion of this group.
Great points about Foreman, @cullummp. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. (Before they signed Gillislee, Foreman would have been a very intriguing fit for NE to replace Blount.)
Andre Williams is going to frequently show up as a comp for a certain style of elite player, Trent Richardson will show up as a comp for a slightly different elite prospect, and Bishop Sankey is going to always show up for the Christian McCaffrey types. I'm not sure those are true red flags as much as it's simply a good reminder that even elite prospects sometimes don't pan out.
But it's definitely the case that having accurate comps helps to calibrate expectations and understand the risks.
#6 By: Geoff Hendricks, April 20th, 2017 07:40
After all the Rotoviz research, in PPR Dynasty pre-draft I'm interested in:
Mixon (very dependent on being a 2nd or 3rd round pick in the real draft)
Assuming all those guys are there, which in McNichols case might be a stretch.
Pass catching is so essential to an RBs floor these days, i can't get that excited for Fournette with his likely landing spots (every NFL team, amiright )
We'll see if anyone else pops after the draft, a few places seem to like Hunt a bit. But that's my initial target list.
#7 By: Regression From the Mean, April 20th, 2017 09:55
I don't have the 1.01 pick in any league but if I did I would be trading it. Fournette may not even be a 3-down back, and I think that at draft time I'd rather have most top 20 ADP players than him for my dynasty team. Of course that could change based on his NFL landing spot.
Cook also seems "too rich for my blood" with his athleticism concerns, and he will likely be gone before I'm willing to pick him.
I really like McCaffrey, but... Is the NFL really going to give a white RB all of the chances to succeed that they otherwise would? I'm not saying he's any less of a prospect than race-agnostic models and observers would say, but I certainly believe there is some possibility that if he struggles or they have trouble figuring out the right fit, he could get the hook sooner because the coaching staff has either conscious or subconscious bias that will just see the situation as confirmation. Certainly the reverse is possibly true too, where decision-makers want to see a white RB succeed that they give him more chances. Just an interesting discussion, and fair or not, I really don't know at this point whether it should affect our risk profile of him. I'll hold my opinion until after we see how early and where he is really drafted.
#8 By: Shawn Siegele , April 20th, 2017 13:59
@FF_Gringo Those are good targets. I haven't seen McNichols go in Round 1 anywhere, but he does land in the 2.04 range occasionally. I think he'll be available late in Round 2 or in Round 3 unless he's drafted a little earlier than expected. Jones is a great pick in R4 or as a FA after the draft.
@fezic Those top 3 RBs are tricky. If Fournette goes to Carolina, I don't like that landing spot for him. (Of course, it would also be bad for Newton, since they'd probably stop giving him so many goal line carries.) Cook and McCaffrey would really benefit from landing with teams like Philadelphia or Kansas City, offenses that are predicated on a large number of RB dumpoffs.
#9 By: Justin Winn, April 22nd, 2017 01:24
One thing I've been looking into over the past few years is whether or not if a RB being boom-or-bust in college is predictive of failure at the NFL level. I don't have enough data to say anything conclusive or that it's predictive, but I at least feel comfortable saying that those kinds of big play RBs don't fare better in the NFL than other RBs. Williams was very much of that type. Foreman is not.