#1 By: Ginoooooobliii, August 8th, 2018 20:56
Hey Hasan @hrr5010, Thanks for doing a post on 2QB league. I play in one and I was wondering how to approach it. Last year, I went with Andy Dalton and Andrew luck, hoping luck would come back, but was able to grab Watson and JimmyG on waivers to work with it.
I am planning a similar approach this time by grabbing Patrick Mahomes and one of the value picks such as Matt Ryan.
I see that you went with a modified Zero RB with Gurley at 3, and followed it up with 4 WRs in a row. Who are your deviations from zero rb for this year? I love your start through 5 rds!
Can you also share your assumptions for Saints projection? Do you see any chance for Kamara to go 1000/1000?
#2 By: hrr5010, August 9th, 2018 09:23
Hey hey! Thanks for the kind words @turndownforwatt . I think there's plenty of ways to attack it. Honestly, I'm using the Draft Dashboard to help me out a bit as I make my picks and was fortunate that most of the gambles I took paid off. Out of curiosity, what are your scoring settings? This is a half PPR league, so I banked on the fact that several WRs would make it back to me. I may have reached quite a bit for Amari, but I've got him in Tier 2 whereas @FF_Contrarian has him in Tier 3. (our Landry ranks are flipped, but I might be moving Landry on up)
I think part of what necessitates an approach like this is how shallow WR really is. In an H2H league, you always want to win the flex, depending on league settings. Given that we start 3WR, I'm trying to cram in as many high floor/ceiling guys as possible. Amari is one I'm a truther for, so ignore that selection.
As for RB, plenty of great RBs still hang around till later. Players such as: Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel (on his way to becoming a supreme value), Jamaal Williams, Marshawn Lynch, Tevin Coleman, Tarik Cohen, Marlon Mack, Mark Ingram (Barf), Isaiah Crowell, James White, Dion Lewis, Chris Thompson (I could go on, but you get the idea) are still available. So it's really a matter of who the draft lets fall to you.
I'm also partial to Ty Montgomery, Royce Freeman, Bilal Powell, Latavius Murray as later round selections.
Also here are the assumptions is used for the Saints, but a few notes:
1) I assumed 570 pass attempts/ 430 rush attempts. This is slightly above the pace they ran last year, but not by much.
2) I've been fairly harsh on Ingram, but there's a real chance he sees less time than we all think. And T West could well eat into that workload as well.
3) My Saints WR4 projection includes Tre'Quan. @FF_Contrarian gave me some great feedback regarding Cam Mer and Tre'Quan and it's possible my 24% target share for MT is far too high. On the other hand, Cam Mer could just not be good. He could maybe not get healthy, or is overtaken by Tre'Quan. That's TBD. So play around with the range of outcomes here to understand what the min/max range for each player could look like.
4) Alvin Kamara has a darkhorse shot at 1000/1000. In order for that to happen, the Saints will need to trail a good amount so they continue to utilize him as their primary RB. If the DEF experiences poor injury luck, that finalstat line might not be as far away as it appears today.
#3 By: hrr5010, August 9th, 2018 09:25
Also in terms of QBs, I love your approach. I think Mahomes is a great get, but there are plenty of guys in that tier that I like. Matty Ice I'm fairly high on, since I expect he bounces back. But don't forget about Mariota, Dak, Goff, and even Dalton.
Dak is going slightly overlooked, which is a mistake given his rushing upside. For waiver wire guys, keep your eyes on Baker.
#4 By: Matt, August 9th, 2018 12:01
@hrr5010 I'm in the middle of my first dynasty draft and could use some advice on my QB situation. Obviously, dynasty is a lot different than redraft.
28 roster spots, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Q/W/R/T, 3 W/R/T, 1 W/T. It's PPR with 1.5 PPR for TE. QBs are 6 point TDs and 3 point INTs.
We're about halfway through and this is my roster in order of draft selection:
Antonio Brown, Travis Kelce, Stefon Diggs, Jarvis Landry, Drew Brees, Ronald Jones, Will Fuller, Tevin Coleman, Andy Dalton, Duke Johnson, Nyheim Hines, Marqise Lee.
I waited as long as I could to draft QBs and I'm a little worried about them, especially long term. I've been relying mainly on the RotovViz dynasty rankings to make my selections, particularly @FF_Contrarian's rankings. He is higher on Tannehill than everyone else at RotoViz. In terms of who is available, everyone in the top 30 of your rankings is gone except Tannehill, and everyone after 30 is still available. Would you grab a 3rd current starter in Tannehill, or would you wait and grab guys who don't have a role later on (or both)? Which late round fliers do you like at QB?
Just want to say that while I love the content, the thing I like the most about RotoViz is that the writers take the time to interact with us and answer our questions and give us advice. It is greatly appreciated.
#5 By: hrr5010, August 9th, 2018 12:09
Do you have a link to the board, out of curiosity?
I appreciate that it's a superflex league, because your roster is absolutely disgusting. Given the deep starting lineups, you can actually lose the QB spot while making up for lost ground in the other spots. The one thing about dynasty superflex leagues is several rookies typically get pushed down, so I'm curious to see who's still available out there.
#6 By: hrr5010, August 9th, 2018 12:12
For reference, here’s a link to a SFlex draft I did earlier in the offseason. Pat Fitzmaurice was also in the league with me.
My name in the draft view is OTI (Scott Pilgrim is my franchise name). Pat is captain America.
If any rookie QBs are left, I'd consider Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Josh Rosen over Ryan Tannehill. @FF_Contrarian did a mock first round rookie draft here, and explains why each of these three QBs are worth your investment.
#7 By: Matt, August 9th, 2018 12:50
Disgusting as in good? I hope so! Here's the link to the draft board: http://www50.myfantasyleague.com/2018/options?L=61503&O=113&DISPLAY=LEAGUE
As you can see, Mayfield, Jackson, Rosen, Darnold, and Josh Allen were all gone by the 9th round, so all the 1st round QBs are gone. The only rookie QBs I'm aware of that haven't been drafted are Mason Rudolph and Lauletta.
Thanks for showing me your draft board. It's helpful to see how other drafts go. Looks like the QB pics in your league were a lot more spread out than in this one. Same with TE. TE6 didn't go off the board until round 11. I wanted to grab more TE but felt like I needed to shore up other positions. Probably should have grabbed a TE instead of Hines (OJ Howard or Hunter Henry), but I thought maybe people would ignore the position for yet another round.
#8 By: hrr5010, August 9th, 2018 13:11
Absolutely. It's a very good roster. I think Ryan Tannehill makes sense here. I don't think you need to worry too much about the age of your QBs, since several guys who've been drafted earlier (Case Keenum, Bortles, handful of others) have similarly short shelf lives, IMHO. You can always stock up on starting QBs in the rookie draft.
I'd prefer locking down a third starter, and then going with one other backup QB much later. there's still plenty of talent left on the draft board, and with 28 rounds, not all the backups can be rostered.
Also - there's some good RB/WR/TE talent out there, that'll help you win right now. Hopefully you can pick them clean before your opponents catch on.
#9 By: Ginoooooobliii, August 9th, 2018 13:58
@hrr5010 Thanks for the detailed response. Appreciate it!
If it were a full PPR, would have taken a WR over Gurley? I am in 7 spot in a double flex league (2RB 2WR 2FLX 1 TE and 1 QB) and I am confused as heck between Kamara, Barkley and Hopkins/Obj as my pick there. Do you have a preference?
It is true that there quite a few RBs at the bottom of the drafts, which is why I feel like taking a RB such as Kamara is Rd1 and pounding WR/TE until Rd 7/8 is the way to go. Just curios where you stand on that approach.
My big concern with HOP is that Watson over performed last year, he threw many interceptions and made bad choices that he got away with. Second, the team played from behind significantly due to bottom of the league defense, with additions of JJ watt, Tyrann, and Romeo Cremel at DC, this may not be the case anymore. Third, Watson enjoyed a monstrous 35% TRGMS and had 170+ targets. I think that target volume will be down, MS will be down a bit, efficiency was neutral I think, so, we can skip that. On top of that he hasn't put 2 good seasons together yet.
Barkley is a rookie, but has a 300+ volume expectation and is excellent in passing game..
Kamara is like CMC with higher rushing upside and has a coach who knows how to use him and a QB who is willing to use him. Ceiling is a 1000/1000 possibility.
My mock choices usually are (for first 4 rds): Barkley/AJG or Davante/Diggs or Fitz/Landry or Hop/AJG/Kelce/Landry (skipping a RB allows me to reach for the elite TE) or Hop/CMC or freeman/diggs/Landry ..
Back to my 2 QB league, it is actually very heavily catered towards QBs. 1pt PPR and 6 pt passing TD. There are also bonus points for yards (350yds+), and TDs longer than 35+ yards. See attached.
Roster is pretty straight forward, 1 QB, 2WR, 2RB, SPFLEX, 1 TE. Oh, and it is a 10 team league. Based on yardage and TD bonus, it seems more favorable to yardage QBs such as Brady/Rodgers/Brees as opposed to running QBs.
Oh! last question regarding Tiers, how do we see individual writer tiers? The rankings page shows a composite.
Sorry for the very long response.
#10 By: hrr5010, August 9th, 2018 15:17
So I'm currently drafting out of the 1.07 in a league with full PPR and the following roster requirements: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX, 1 DEF. So I did this mock draft from the Draft Dashboard to prepare. Yeah, I know it says 1.08, but you can replicate the strategy/roster construction if you run a couple of mock drafts. They're quick and easy, and give you a great idea how the draft might unfold. Plus you can plug those exact settings into the dashboard and figure out how you want to construct your roster/what RBs you're happy with taking etc. Just a way to familiarize yourself with what makes YOU happy.
I'm using the draft dashboard right now actually during this slow draft. Out of the 1.07, my roster is as follows:
2.05 - AJ Green
3.07 - Adam Thielen (got sniped on Diggs. Tilted too hard and took him ahead of Amari, which I'm OK with, but still. Also - don't follow my advice on Amari since I'm a truther)
4.05- Jarvis Landry
5.07 - Ronald Jones (Took him ahead of quite a few other appealing RBs, so i'm kinda regretting the decision/praying more make it back to me)
I took OBJ ahead of Kamara, but that's because WR gets VERY thin, very quick in a H2H league. Also, most WRs lack the same ceiling as OBJ. He's one of 3 Tier 1 WRs for me,. I also only have 3 Tier 1 RBs, so I'd prioritize these guys over the other Tier 2 players. Over on the draft dashboard in the settings where it says Tier Source, you can chose any of ours as opposed to a blend of the RotoViz composite average. That way you can view what @FF_Contrarian or other rankers have put.
Full disclosure - i've been using my own tier ranks in actual leagues where i've got money on the line, so that way i can adjust if i don't like how my tiers shake out. That way you know what i'm doing with skin in the game.
Try fleshing out a mock draft, and feel free to post here. I don't mind looking it over and discussing scenarios with ya!
For 2QB, that's not super weighted to QB. The running QBs will always have the distinct advantage of adding points with their legs. The rushing TDs don't matter as much, given the even weighting for passing TDs. Also, a 10 team league means you're going to comfortably land several top end guys, so reaching for a Brady/Rodgers/Brees may not be necessary.
However, you can check those yardage bonuses over in the Stat Explorer (probably my favorite tool in @dcaban's app suite) Take a look at Tom Brady's game long from last season:
he rarely crossed that 350 yard threshold, despite being ultra efficient. Also, look at how his passes were distributed last year:
Brady barely threw 20+ yards down the field. He's reliant on YAC to create those paTDs that will be 35+ yards. There are several other QBs with YAC monsters on their squad who could get those long TDs. Matthew Stafford is one who looks intriguing at first glance, as does Ben Roethlisberger. Mahomes remains my favorite here though.
#11 By: devinmci, August 9th, 2018 17:48
I would definitely grab Tannehill. The opportunity cost is not that high, and you can't afford to let a minor QB injury possible knock you out of contention for the whole year. Despite Tannehill's downside longterm, he also has considerably more upside that rostering the backups to Dalton or Brees.
The price of starting QBs jumps as soon as the startup draft is over, and they're incredibly difficult to trade for without giving a QB back.
#12 By: Matt, August 9th, 2018 18:49
My next pick was at 13.12 and Tannehill went at 13.10 (Tyrod a few picks before that). The guy who has Tannehill has 4 QB and said he would be willing to trade after the draft. The best guys left that will likely start week 1 are all playing on teams that drafted 1st round QBs: Bradford, Flacco, McCarron, and McCown.
I picked Gio and Corey Coleman with 14.03 (traded back a few slots once Tannehill was gone) and 14.07. I pick next at 15.06 and 15.10.
Bradford seems like the most talented and is by far the youngest but that knee really worries me and they already lost their starting center to injury. Flacco's seems like the most likely to finish the season. I'm leaning Bradford because it's possible (not likely, but possible) that he plays like he did week 1 last year and revitalizes his career after signing somewhere else in free agency. I don't really see any path to a consistent job a year from now for any of the other 3. Do I go the safe short term route with Flacco or hope that Bradford stays healthy for once?
#13 By: hrr5010, August 9th, 2018 18:53
Take Flacco. Not much of a diff between him and tanny and Baltimore should be competitive. I doubt Flacco loses his job this year
#14 By: hrr5010, August 9th, 2018 18:59
All this other guy has done is remove the points from the pool. Playing defense in super flex with bottom of the barrel QBs is a poor strategy and I guarantee he never starts the right guys
#15 By: Ginoooooobliii, August 9th, 2018 19:31
@hrr5010 Awesome. I have been trying to figure out the right way to use the stats tool, will play with it more. This is a good example of it.
In your draft, did Hopkins get drafted or did you chose OBJ over Hopkins? Also, in second, who do you like more AJG or Adams. What is your strategy with TE and QB in this current draft?
Btw, I tried looking at your tiers in the draft tool and it shows more than 3 each in Tier 1 for RB/WR. May be I have an older version of the tool?
Side note: @dcaban, is there any way to have a composite tier as main tier, but use one of the RV writers' tiers as custom tier M1, M2?
Thanks for offering to comment on the rosters, I will do a few mocks and let you know. Thanks again Hasan for your help! Really appreciate it!
#16 By: hrr5010, August 10th, 2018 10:30
I elected for OBJ over Nuk, and I chose AJG over Adams. It's largely because the Giants don't have much competition across from OBJ (Evan Engram is a bigger threat over Shep, and Barkley is as well, but OBJ's got splash play potential). I think there's a very good case for Nuk, but I don't mind going with OBJ here. They're supremely close together. I'm also hoping to land Will Fuller, and I'm taking a huge risk by not taking Nuk, so we'll see if it pans out.
For AJG, the argument is that he's got the target share advantage. I hope I'm right, but I think he still sees a 25% MS of targets. The differences are minimal.
For the tool, I recommend refreshing it. I have to double check my tiers, since I can't recall how many Tier 1 players I have off the top of my head.
My strategy for QB/TE in my current draft is simple - wait. i might legitimately not take a QB/DEF/K since we are drafting early. it'll change if i notice teams start doubling up on QB, despite it being a 1QB league, but for now my roster though 5 is OK. I added Tevin Coleman over Kerryon Johnson, since I'm sensing a WR run is coming and I'm OK with taking an RB in the 6th (if he falls) or taking Will Fuller (if he falls)
And absolutely. Feel free to show me the draft board view, and we can talk about who you like. also, and I encourage this a lot, feel free to make your own tiers! @FF_Contrarian is right - fantasy is WAY more fun if you've got guys you want to root for, and all we gotta do is figure out the way they might be used. You might be right on being down on some guys vs us and vice versa!
#17 By: DaveCabanFF, August 10th, 2018 12:45
@turndownforwatt There isn't a way to get the composite as the main tier. I hadn't actually conceptualized that yet when I was building everything. So the closest thing is to just use the "RotoViz Tiers" as opposed to a specific writer. I'll keep that in mind for the future though.
#18 By: Matt, August 11th, 2018 12:39
Well, Flacco got taken before my next pick, but I did grab Bradford in the 15th. The guy who had 4 QBs now has 6 through 18 rounds (Rodgers, Luck, Roethlisberger, Tannehill, Rudolph, Foles). I don't get it. Here's my roster through 18:
QB Brees, Dalton, Stafford
RB: R Jones, T Coleman, D Johnson, Hines, Gio
WR: AB, Diggs, Landry, Fuller, M Lee, C Coleman
TE: Kelce, Doyle, G Everett, Jonnu Smith
Had to trade a bit of future draft capital to move up for some of this guys but overall I'm pretty happy with my squad so far.
Targeting Curtis Samuel, Theo Riddick, Ito Smith, Adam Shaheen, in the next few rounds. Thanks again for all your advice.
#19 By: devinmci, August 11th, 2018 13:42
@mateoloco in a typical dynasty you probably roster 2-3 QBs, so in SFlex where they are even more scarce and valuable, rostering 4-6 makes sense. Seems like Rudolph and Foles are guys you could wait on though--maybe jumped the gun after Rudolph played alright in the preaseason game.
That's a pretty exciting TE group.
#20 By: Matt, August 11th, 2018 13:51
Who would you target for another QB? McCarron, Lauletta, and Brissett are still available (Bridgewater is gone).
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