#1 By: RotoViz, March 16th, 2017 16:33
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2017/03/anatomy-of-a-blockbuster-dynasty-trades-part-2/
Last week I traded Sammy Watkins and the suspended ghost of Doug Martin to 14TeamMocker for Jordan Howard, Tyrell Williams, and two future first round picks. That’s not precisely true. I’ll get into the nuts and bolts in a moment, but you should reader Mocker’s rationale for the trade. It’s one of the best explanations I’ve read for…
#2 By: McG, March 17th, 2017 12:51
I really like this feature and would enthusiastically read more. Thanks.
#3 By: PeterBuilt, March 17th, 2017 14:29
Great stuff as always. I prefer the Howard side as well.
"Draft picks are consistently overvalued" and "create the potential for a future super-lineup by stockpiling first-round picks" seem to be at strategic odds with each other, however. Or perhaps you mean to trade those picks to build the future super lineup?
Last year I traded Moncrief for 2 picks that became Michael Thomas and Howard. At the time, my league mates thought I was insane. Some dumb luck was involved there, of course, but I've found that the owners who take too many antibiotics and refuse to catch a little rookie fever every now and then also tend to get stuck with Walking Dead teams before they know it.
#4 By: Shawn Siegele , March 22nd, 2017 17:31
Thanks @McG. We'll try to make sure we continue to feature posts like this. It can often be quite helpful to look at trades and players from multiple perspectives. (And analysis in the context of real leagues can often be much better than in a vacuum.)
I agree on your note @Silverback. That could easily be seen to be contradictory. My thought with the picks is that they tend to retain both value and flexibility. Having both components gives them a lot of value in building rosters long term. They can effectively function as money in the intermediate term, and then they're frequently tradeable above actual value at the time of the draft, or they can be kept if a difference-making player is available during the draft.
I was thinking about this in relation to some developmental dynasty leagues I participate in where holding the devy players is a lot less favorable. An early player can see a sharp decline in value (say Smith-Schuster) and even in the case where a player doesn't decline, in order to trade that devy player you have to find another owner who values him similarly. (Whereas right now, a 1.01 can represent Fournette, Cook, McCaffrey, Davis, or Williams.)
I also strongly agree with your point about rookie fever. Catch it!