#1 By: Ryan Blakeslee, August 8th, 2018 09:02
@FF_Contrarian I saw you took K. Johnson over Fuller in round 6 of the Apex league. Roster construction appeared to force your choice. Interested to hear your take on this decision because ive passed on Fuller at this point in numerous best ball drafts because I needed a value RB. Perhaps a redraft ppr league would be a better fit for taking a 4th WR over RB2 due to waiver wire.
#2 By: Dennis, August 8th, 2018 10:56
#3 By: Shawn Siegele , August 8th, 2018 11:41
The draft is here. http://www67.myfantasyleague.com/2018/options?L=54962&O=17
I've got a writeup coming later today.
@FF_Fiend That was a difficult decision. I'll try to jump back in with some more detail, and we'll discuss this on the Overtime pod this week, too.
#4 By: Shawn Siegele , August 8th, 2018 12:51
#5 By: Shawn Siegele , August 8th, 2018 13:34
I really like the WR firepower in best ball because it's much easier to maximize the value of guys like Carson, Ekeler, and Breida in that format. But I tend to like what WRs bring in most formats, and I agree with your note about the waiver wire here.
In this case, roster construction played a small role, but it was more about specific players and gambling on certain players coming back.
As I talk about in the article, I had a big tier break after the Cooper selection, and there was another big tier break after Round 6 in this draft. When it came to my picks in the R5-6 range, I really wanted 2 out of the 3 of Coleman, Freeman, and Kerryon. I'm much higher on this trio than most and would have considered them at the time of the JuJu selection if not for the likelihood that they would come back around.
Since KJ was easily the most likely to come back, it was a tricky choice between Coleman and Freeman, and Freeman was then selected with the very next pick.
Part of the analysis was the likelihood that one of my remaining Big 3 at WR would be available in Round 7 (Fuller, Goodwin, and Anderson), but with Goodwin skyrocketing and no QBs being selected, that turned out to be wishful thinking.
As I've talked about on pods and mentioned briefly in the article, I don't consider WR to be deep at all this year - but I do have that group in the R6-7 range and then a favorites list for much later. These are guys who probably won't be great weekly starts - they won't help you win the race to fill the flex, for example - but they're close enough to the R7 tier for me to go RB again in R7 and QB in R8.
I know the trendy thing is to wait forever on QB, but eventually I'll have to pick a QB anyway, and it will cost me a WR or RB I really like at that spot.
If I'm able to grab another handful of my favorite Zero RB targets, I'll really regret not taking Fuller. On the other hand, if I land my WRs, this more balanced roster, albeit with no RBs through 4 rounds, should pan out nicely.
It's certainly one of the reasons to practice drafting all of your leagues in reverse as well, in order to get a feel for how those likely future picks will influence OTC tactics.
#6 By: Dennis, August 8th, 2018 14:30
if u felt ertz would be available would u have taken mccaffrey over gronk? i infer from reading some of ur thoughts u might be at least tempted to trade Gronk and Landry for McCaffrey and Ertz...guys u essentially could have had. i think id prefer the latter two but this is totally a hindsight analysis now i realize.
where do u have t. cohen in ur ranking of these rbs... maybe behind royce, tevin, kerryon but ahead of ekelers and breidas. all names i anticipate maybe making ur 0rb guys list
#7 By: Ginoooooobliii, August 8th, 2018 15:07
@FF_Contrarian, Thanks for doing this.Right off the bat it's cool how the new ADP values have been incorporated by the owners. TY in 2nd and Julio in 1st are uncommon at this point in regular general public drafts.
Not related to the draft, I will have more as I process the draft further. But I do have a question on Saquon/Kamara/Hopkins/ Obj pick. I am picking 7 in my 1pt ppr league with 2RB 2 WR 2 flex. In this format, I usually go with one of HOP/OBJ but Saquon and Kamara have such high ceilings that I cannot make up my mind. What is your preference here?
As I think about this decision, it is quite awesome and funny, to see AB, and OBJ (and Julio) go ahead of the stud 4 RBs in Apex leagues.
#8 By: Ginoooooobliii, August 8th, 2018 19:55
#9 By: Jason, August 9th, 2018 08:34
@FF_Contrarian if you are in a league where members are willing to trade redraft draft picks before the draft - is there any strategy you might employ after getting a feel for this year’s ADP in both .5PPR and full PPR?
From reading your thoughts above, I’m thinking trading more middle round picks to move up to a 3rd rounder may be ideal
Would a trade like: 4.06 and 7.07 for 3.05 and 9.05 make sense? As I see it by moving up to the 3rd - I can snag a guy like Landry/Cooper (or even both) to be my WR3 and 4 in a Zero RB start.
Then Round 6 I really like the RBs available that should be there (Coleman, Kerryon). Maybe someone like R Jones or Penny is there in the 5th.
I would lose the 7th, but I don’t see a big drop off 7-9 in RBs, the big drop may be in missing on a guy like Goodwin or Anderson (but they may also be gone anyways)
Kinda rambling but would like your thoughts on pre-draft pick trading this year.
#10 By: Shawn Siegele , August 9th, 2018 11:30
@JollyG804 I probably wouldn't trade Gronk/Landry for McCaffrey/Ertz. I love McCaffrey there and think he offers some possibilities in terms of team building that set you up to be very flexible as you progress through the draft, but he's fairly even with Landry (who is always underrated), and while Ertz is a good target as both a safe and high upside TE, he's far below Gronk (who has to deal with his injury history but is otherwise a solid pick as early as No. 7 or so).
@turndownforwatt It was cool to see the experts make some really strong (and different) picks in the first couple of rounds. I prefer Hopkins there, but I don't have a strong preference. OBJ and Kamara are extremely enticing ceiling picks, and Barkley appears worthy of the hype. (Look for the excellent Sell-Hopkins piece from Ben Battle that we'll have coming out tomorrow.))
@FantasyNerd Completely agree. If you can make that trade, I definitely do it. The biggest concern is that Anderson is much more likely to be available in R7 in almost any other draft, but that also means you're likely to find better value in R9 as well.
#11 By: Dennis, August 9th, 2018 12:55
I'm curious. Kerryon Johnson is a shade less athletic via combine measurables than Ameer Abdullah was. Less productive in the passing game in college. the only big advantage as a prospect i see essentially is that he was picked earlier and a full year younger. but may face even more danger to get squeezed for high leverage touches. ameer had to battle D. wash and Zenner for goal line work and riddick for passes. KJ now has Abdullah, for carries, riddick for catches and Blount for goal line work. yeesh. is the main reason to like KJ and not abdullah last year ADP?
I had a fun ppr double FLX draft yesterday trying to utilize a bit of ur strategy but picking from the 6th. opened w Hopkins. JUST missed gronk in r2 by a pick and took CMcC. Took Kelce in 3, then JUST missed Diggs by a pick and took Cooper. Maybe i reached a bit for Tevin and Kerryon in the next two rnds. but made up for it when Hogan and Corey Davis then Jamal Williams fell to me in the next 3 rounds.
rounded out a bench of breida, m. lee, ekeler, Stills then grabbed Mariota. probably my strongest team so far i hope.
#12 By: Shawn Siegele , August 9th, 2018 14:50
I like Kerryon's overall size/speed/agility/explosion profile better. I'm one of the biggest proponents of smaller backs (as the upcoming Zero RB list will illustrate) but I want them to be really fast (and inexpensive).
The other issue is that Abdullah struggled as a rookie and didn't really play as a second-year player. That doesn't mean you shouldn't draft them, just that the price needs to be right. His NFL performance to that point didn't appear to be taken into consideration at his ADP. (The counterargument would have been a reasonable ADP for the starting opportunity, which was one of the reasons I was focused on the fact that the opportunity was largely a mirage.)
Some of my concerns about situation didn't really come into play last year. There would have been some receptions remaining if Abdullah hadn't essentially been benched, and the big backs didn't really factor in at all.
In that way, it's very possible that the situation is worse in 2018. But the early draft selection (and trade up) also suggested they want a 3-down back, and that Riddick - while he will definitely factor - is going to be mildly phased out of the offense.
Kerryon has been billed as a poor man's Le'Veon Bell, and while even that is an exaggeration for numerous reasons, he does have a favorable profile for the current NFL (and for fantasy scoring), and the training camp reviews have been glowing. Reading too much into camp can certainly be a trap, but I prefer the guys to look good rather than bad (and certainly in this case, it hints a larger early role than what you might otherwise project, especially considering the potential touch squeeze).
(Sounds like a pretty fun draft you had.)
#13 By: Dennis, August 11th, 2018 12:01
Amazing insight thank you. He looked really terrific. You must do a blend of scouting film and also using rotoviz tools, statistical analysis correct? do you rely more on combine measurements or your own eyes? for example what makes u like Jamaal williams now? is it sort of updating his on field success and hint of competency in the passing game changes ur pre-draft expectations of him? or more simply that aaron jones is out and ur zero rb teams need points from a nominal starter...
it seems like a fair amount of ur favorites are not in the goldilocks zone you and others have written about. ronald jones, kerryon are just shy of 215 and DJ and Royce Freeman are just above.
will you be releasing your pre-draft rankings again this summer?
#14 By: Shawn Siegele , August 12th, 2018 12:36
I tend to watch quite a bit, but my evaluations are mostly based off of the predictive metrics. Production (especially production that is well ahead of expected for age and experience level) and athleticism translate to the NFL. That's not earth-shattering by any stretch, but in any season there are a handful of guys who end up undervalued, sometimes for scouting reasons or sometimes because their specific athleticism/size profiles are undervalued.
For example, rookies ranked 2-7 are all about even by the numbers, with the possible exception of Michel and Chubb being a little worse. Since the most expensive of the group were Guice, Michel, and Chubb (mostly for scouting reasons, although Guice and Chubb certainly had some excellent early production), it was fairly straightforward to load up on Jones, Freeman, and Kerryon, especially since they also entered much better situations than the Georgia backs. It's not certain that such a strategy will work out this year - although it looks good so far - but over the course of several years, it's almost guaranteed to leave you in good position.
It's definitely true that a lot of my favorites are not in the goldilocks zone, and that's because that weight range is really expensive in fantasy. In general, weight tends to overvalued at RB. In terms of RBs already in the NFL, size is a small negative in predicting N+1 (although the effect isn't large). In terms of runners entering the NFL, we have some studies that don't find it as a key indicator.
If I could draft all Todd Gurleys, I would. But that's not realistic, so I tend to target profiles that are undervalued.
Big, quick guys - This is one of the reasons a large chunk of my dynasty teams were able to get Bell and David Johnson early on. And why I owned them for their late-season pushes as rookies. Royce Freeman fits into this category. (Kerryon is sometimes tied to Le'Veon, but he's smaller and his athleticism is more balanced than the backs in this group).
Small, fast/quick guys - A lot of the top Zero RB stars from my teams stretching back to 2008 are made up of the best guys from this group. Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles. (Chris Thompson and Duke Johnson were lesser examples of this last year.)
And then there are plenty of guys in that 210-215 range with plus athleticism or solid athleticism + elite past production.
There just aren't a lot of guys in the 215-225 range with 4.4 forties. Certainly not a lot of under-the-radar guys with that profile. Since weight is meaningful but overvalued - especially as it relates to high-value receiving touches - I tend to attack other profiles.
On Jamaal Williams, I've added him in a bunch of places because he's just so inexpensive for the guy who's going to start for one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. While Jones is likely still the better talent, this has some Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman potential, where just owning the starter has a ton of value even if the backup is a potential star. (In all likelihood, Williams is a lesser version of Freeman and Jones a lesser version of Coleman.)
I do factor Williams' solid rookie season and well-rounded ability as well as the coaching staff's obvious love for him. This has some potential to be similar to Arian Foster's breakout. (I'm not predicting that, exactly, but I want exposure to the scenario.)
#15 By: Jason, August 22nd, 2018 08:07
@FF_Contrarian do you prefer Allen Robinson or Landry in early Rd 4 in a .5 ppr league?
Also if you are going true ZRB and selecting 5 straight WRs, would you then be more inclined to select a guy like Marquise Goodwin as early as the 5th? Since his upside is so high and downside can be partially mitigated by the redundancy of earlier WRs. I think him, Hogan, C Davis are all good picks in rounds 5-6.
#16 By: Shawn Siegele , August 22nd, 2018 11:20
I prefer Landry, but I would have them relatively close. There's so much uncertainty with Robinson, but he's an excellent bounceback candidate.
I've been loading up on Goodwin over the last two years and would consider him in Round 5, but he's a little less of a priority there. From a volume perspective, drafters are focused on how he appears to have jumped Garcon, but I would expect Trent Taylor, and to a lesser extent Pettis, to also earn targets. And the 49ers should throw heavily to the backs.
I do prefer him ahead of all of the WRs who went in Round 5 of this Apex draft though.
#17 By: Ryan Blakeslee, August 22nd, 2018 12:48
I know you’re not soliciting my advice but I like your structural take on taking that 5th WR with extreme upside because you’re already loaded at the position. Also like your mention of Hogan who along with Shawn’s targets Goodwin, Fuller and Robby Anderson seem to be best bets at smashing ADP. You may be able to get Goodwin and/or settle for Fuller or Anderson later to maximize roster construction. You’re going to need some RBs at some point and Freeman/Coleman in round 5 are players I’m trying to add vs those WR picks too. Some tough calls for sure but I like your focus on upside with this post.
#18 By: Jason, August 22nd, 2018 13:08
Advice is always welcomed, it’s what makes this site so great! Certainly agree with everything you said.
I did have my league specific scenario in mind during my response. I’m anticipating one of TC/ Kerryon/Mack/Freeman to be there in round 6, so I am playing with the idea of getting a WR in round 5.
It’s a keeper league too so values may not align perfectly and I have Kamara kept in round 11, so I’m not sweating having to necessarily pick up a RB1 in round 5.
#19 By: Jason, August 22nd, 2018 17:03
@FF_Contrarian your new handcuff article sparked this question, but in leaguea where there is a FAAB budget, would you give more weight to going ZRB than you otherwise would?
#20 By: Shawn Siegele , August 23rd, 2018 11:56
I definitely like it with FAAB because you have more control over landing your guys in free agency. (All leagues should have FA bidding.)
But Zero RB has become a lot less stressful in all formats over the last several years as the RB position is so deep now. It's not nearly as difficult to add RBs in Round 8-15, which lessens the emphasis on FA slightly.
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