I'm in a situation that everyone encounters if you play long enough -- rebuilding a dynasty team. I constantly find myself wondering if I should use a roster spot on a rookie who goes late or not at all in my dynasty drafts or for 2nd/3rd year guys who haven't yet fully hit. I'm currently focusing on RBs and after our rookie draft will face decisions of whether to use a roster spot on guys like Zach Zenner or Aaron Jones/Joe Williams types.
Of course we can like/not like a guy and make a case either way, but would love to see some way to quantify probabilities of success from 2nd/3rd/4th year guys who have haven't yet "NFL" broken out vs probabilities of rookies hitting, perhaps sloped by rookie pick ADP and even compare WR/RB/TE/QB. My thought is to use something like guide overall process for end-of-roster strategy, not as much get into comparison between specific players.