#1 By: Michael Cullum, June 11th, 2018 13:34
Can anyone figure out what causes week to week shifts in Bortles' effectiveness? He's been rock steady from a season long perspective, finishing between QB3 and QB13 over the past three years, and yet only a maniac would trot him out there as their QB1 most weeks. I've parsed the splits on Profootballreference, but nothing jumps out. It seems like if we could identify what will likely cause goods weeks versus the horrendous weeks, he could be a really useful fantasy asset going largely undrafted.
The typical things jump out of the Game Splits app, like Over/Under for the game, and ranking of the opponents pass defense, but the differences between aren't overly stark, IMO.
#2 By: JLaps, June 11th, 2018 21:16
Game to game variance is tough, and I think that the change in coaching staff in 2017 might make his data from past years somewhat less meaningful. He had a big split in 2017 based on the spread, generally faring much better when the Jags were favorites, but it was the complete opposite in the years prior (his reputation for "garbage time" points, though overblown, was somewhat earned. They did need to throw a lot more in years past)
Unfortunately, I don't think there's a magic bullet for him.