#1 By: RotoViz, January 4th, 2018 13:54
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2018/01/draftkings-wild-card-weekend-strategy-and-plays/
Pat James delves into strategy, cash game plays, and GPP pivots for Wild Card Weekend. DraftKings Wild Card Round Cash Game Plays Quarterback Alex Smith ($6,300) Boxes Checked: team implied total, home favorite, matchup, rushing upside, funnel defense Alex Smith gets the best matchup for the best price against a Titans defense that ranks 24th…
#2 By: Dennis, January 5th, 2018 13:59
I'm in one of those survivor fantasy pools.
1 player from each team, 0.5ppr.
as teams lose, u lose the player. I can enter twice and probably will.
Im leaning towards going the two QBs i think r most likely to give me 3 games: Brady and Case. (shout outs to Brees who could face the CAR and PHI. a great shot at 3 games ill prob go him and Brady in my 2nd entry )
RB: Bell, Gurley, Fournette
WR: Thomas, Funchess, Julio
TE: KElce, Ertz
what changes might you make if any? Would you tend towards more contrarian? Last year the entire league picked guys like Bell and Elliot and Brady and I did well pivoting off Jimmy Graham to Baldwin and to A. Rodgers. i feel like picking between Hunt, Kelce, Tyreek will be key.
i know theres gonna be a TON of similar lineups and last year for me it came down to the Texans D outscoring Lamar miller over 2 games cost me 1st by a few pts.
@devinmci @FF_Contrarian @hrr5010
#3 By: hrr5010, January 5th, 2018 14:12
I actually have a very similar pool that I have yet to build my roster for. I can share the results with you once I've constructed the roster.
#4 By: Dennis, January 5th, 2018 14:56
love to see thanks. how many in yours?
toughest choices seem to be alshon vs ertz, funchess vs olsen, Tyreek vs Kelce...and combos of those 6.
#5 By: hrr5010, January 5th, 2018 15:03
Don't know till the contest goes live. It's PPR and the format is as follows:
only 1 player per team. But the format for me is a bit more forgiving than yours.
#6 By: devinmci, January 5th, 2018 16:04
@JollyG804 I wouldn't worry excessively about being contrarian with only 16 entrants.
One pivot I would consider is Brady to Gronk. Gronk has scored a TD in 5 straight playoff games.
Kamara will be popular, and Brees would give you a shot at 4 games from the highest scoring position.
If you don't go Gronk, I would probably try to pick my two TEs from the two wild card teams you are picking to lose. Because neither Hooper or Hibgee/Everett are that attractive, you could swap Succop for Delanie and take Matt Bryant.
#7 By: Dennis, January 5th, 2018 22:50
@devinmci interesting so if you went Brady you'd roll with Walker and Olsen i guess? as your TEs ....or even clay
#8 By: devinmci, January 5th, 2018 23:45
Yeah, I think you want to use your K, Def, TE, TE on the four teams you expect to get bounced. Maybe in a huge format I'd consider Clay, but that game is probably the worst matchup . . . I'd rather just grab the DEF and hope for a lucky pick six. So if you are down to CAR, TEN, and ATL/LAR I think I'll take Olsen, Walker and coinflip between whichever of Gurley/Julio you prefer to fade. Olsen and Walker are especially nice because they could have great individual games even as their teams get knocked out in round one.
#9 By: hrr5010, January 6th, 2018 09:06
Yeah I'm with Devin here. I think he hits the nail on the head and I like your RBs. I think the only change I'd make would be moving off Kelce for Olsen, and pivoting over to Tyreek (no more Funchess).
But basically - like Devin said, you want to use DEF/K/TE/TE on the teams that won't do particularly well. In this case if you're not going Gronk, then just choose the two that the team views as their top receivers (namely, Olsen/Walker).
#10 By: hrr5010, January 6th, 2018 09:32
@JollyG804 as promised, here's the disaster team that I came up with:
QB - Tom Brady
QB - Case Keenum
RB - Le'Veon Bell
RB - Todd Gurley
WR - Michael Thomas
WR - Tyreek Hill
TE - Zach Ertz
TE - Greg Olsen
K - Ryan Succop
K - Matt Bryant
DEF - Jacksonville Jaguars
DEF - Buffalo Bills
#11 By: Dennis, January 6th, 2018 11:14
Thanks a lot guys. i went with:
may do a second team with Brees over either brady (swap gronk) or in for keenum, swap thielen
#12 By: hrr5010, January 6th, 2018 11:16
That's what I'd do as well. Could also swap in Ertz, roll out Succop, put in Julio etc. But your core is solid IMO.
#13 By: Shawn Siegele , January 6th, 2018 12:16
Those all look like good teams and good advice from @devinmci and @hrr5010. (I probably prefer Julio to Alshon, as I think the Falcons have a similar chance for more than 1 game.) Not sure when lineups lock, but I also like the second team with a Brees swap (but for Diggs!).
#14 By: Dennis, January 15th, 2018 23:25
WOW! Great great call! not only was it contrarian (only 1 other person in the pool of 20 used diggs, thanks! what a call. must be fun to see a guy you believe in so much more than most people be such a hero.
im still curious to hear how ur antifragile philosophy might apply to drafts, team building, and roster construction.
it feels like the pats used it just right with the 3 cheap duel threat backs this year.