#1 By: William Russell, March 26th, 2019 14:10
It's been ages since I last posted and have been curious about whether any of the free agent moves have affected my keeper choices. I'm in a three keeper league where keepers go in same round they were drafted and move up a round annually if kept again. You can't keep anyone drafted from RDs 1-3 either.
I have some interesting options for next year 2019 draft round in brackets:
Boyd (10-12 undrafted pickups go in these 3 rounds next yr)
Robby Anderson (6)
Curtis Samuel (10-12)
I was all set to keep JuJu, Chubb and Boyd, but then the Funchess to Colts move got me rethinking my priorities a bit. Does Samuel now have greater value with Devin out of the picture? Or will Moore just dominate targets in future like Hopkins in Houston?
Interested in the thoughts of @FF_Contrarian @hrr5010 @hba24 @Cort @devinmci @dcaban @JollyG804 et al on whether I should change my plans.
Thanks team RotoViz, you're the best.
#2 By: Matt Anderson, March 26th, 2019 16:41
I liked Samuels production uptick last year and thought it would grow regardless. Cam didn't go to Funchess too much, but what volume did go his way may go to Samuel. If Olsen retires, I could see Ian Thomas taking some of the targets. Samuel is in my opinion above R. Anderson straight up. With the round consideration, the value easily goes to Samuel.
The tough consideration is between JuJu, Boyd, Samuel, and Chubb. In PPR they are all pretty similiar, but Big Ben trends would tip towards JuJu. I just don't know how he will respond without AB taking top coverage. I don't like Boyd's situation.
I'm personally not worried about Moore taking the next step in 2019. He'll probably do better, but Samuel is just a better WR and athlete. Just some arm chair dynasty perspective
If I had to rank for PPR.
#3 By: William Russell, March 26th, 2019 18:07
@stan004 thanks very much for the detailed answer above. Very interesting. I'm somewhat surprised to see you rank Samuel above JuJu- my thought was that he's a possible R2 (R3 at worst?) pick next season and so getting him in the 11th feels like a steal. Regardless of the Brown exit impact on coverages, he feels like a potential WR1 to me from next season onwards.
To add some more context, it's full PPR and we start 2 x RB, 3 x WRs and then two flex in this league. I'm a 5 WR guy most weeks, though back to back playoff heartaches are making me lean towards grabbing more RBs for 2019.
Finally, the rest of my keepable 2018 roster is as follows- just in case anyone thinks I should be considering keeping someone a little more leftfield/contrarian:
Courtland Sutton (10-12)
Zay Jones (10-12)
D'Onta Foreman (10-12)
#4 By: devinmci, March 26th, 2019 21:12
Boyd is interesting because his draft round is so low that you could keep him indefinitely if AJ Green gets traded or moves on or has more injuries. But I think you can throw him back and still draft him in a good range to keep him again if he truly blows up into a perpetual top 20 WR.
With just three keepers though, I'm probably taking Sony as the 3rd. I'm not getting greedy trying to nab the guy I can keep until 2030. I'm looking for sure thing contributors. Sony will probably be a value for the next two years, and then hopefully in that time you land an even better late-round gem to replace him.
re: Funchess, he's interesting, but I also think we've seen enough of him to guess that he will not turn into a dominant fantasy asset, even on a good offense like the Colts. The price is solid, but I think you're more likely to be able to land him again in the draft at a decent price than you will Sony, who has multiple TD potential every week. ADP is almost certainly going to peg Funchess as the WR2 behind Hilton, and he's likely to even go after Ebron in some types of leagues.
re: Samuel, I'm really hoping he makes a leap, but it's easy to seem him being the 3rd/4th option on an offense that likely only supports 2. Also, even though early reports on Cam's shoulder have been positive, we can't totally eliminate the risk there.
#5 By: bmoff, March 27th, 2019 16:57
Just for reference, gonna list the current FF Calculator ADPs for comparison:
JuJu (mid 2nd) <<< obvious choice #1
Chubb (mid 2nd) <<< obvious choice #2
Robby (late 7th)
Sony (late 3rd)
C Samuel (12th)
To me, it looks like the best choices are JuJu, Chubb, and Boyd, although I might lean Sony also, since it seems like WR is extremely deep. Robby and Curtis will not be big target hogs, although I like Robby's ceiling more than Curtis Samuel's. That Panther team will be interesting, but he's basically 3rd or 4th option. The Funchess move to Indy is interesting and could see that being an option as well, but if his ADP is in the mid to later rounds, you should be good to wait on him or grab him a round or two early if you're a believer. Tre'Quan is also a 4th option guy, not a whole lot of upside there I don't think.
#6 By: William Russell, April 1st, 2019 07:56
Thanks to @bmoff28 & @devinmci for your input. Samuel's value, in particular, seems to be a source of some contention.
Devin, I'm intrigued by the Michel suggestion. With an ADP of late 3rd, will he offer real value versus what I could otherwise get in RD6? Looking at the kinds of players going in a typical PPR mock draft on FF Calculator I'm seeing Boyd, Mike Williams, Baldwin, ARob, Lockett & Sanders of the WRs and Miller and Josh Jacobs are the only RBs.
Based on this Michel could be a good grab. But I do really like Boyd and the 10-12 round for him really feels like amazing value given his projected ADP.
@hba24 @Badger @hrr5010 any thoughts from you guys?
#7 By: devinmci, April 1st, 2019 19:33
@Will Yes, I think so, because the drop from the 3rd round (Sony ADP) to your 6th round pick (which is really closer to 8th round or so by ADP because there are 36 kept players), is massive.
Because of Sony's keeper value, you could trade him straight up for a WR that has no keeper value at the same ADP, like Keenan Allen or AJ Green.
Also, once AJ Green gets back on the field, I don't think Boyd maintains that ADP. Some rookie WRs will pass him, and DJ Moore, Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett, Corey Davis, Dante Pettis . . . all those guys could pass him. Boyd is probably overrated based on early ADP that is tracking from last year's season totals, but he's gonna drop.
For example, Evan Silva released his top 150 and has Boyd in the 70s near Lamar Miller and Courtland Sutton. To me it's an easy call to keep a top 36 player at almost any price versus a top 75 player at a discount.
#8 By: devinmci, April 1st, 2019 19:42
I'll just add: I don't quite follow the 10-12 round price--can you explain how that will play out for you? What determines whether it's a 10th or a 12th?
But just as an example I'd rather have AJ Green (approx Sony value) + Dion Lewis (approx 10th value) than Tyler Boyd + Royce Freeman.
Once you get into the range of RBs available where that 6th round pick lands, the value is imo very flat the rest of the way down.
#9 By: Phillip Caldwell, April 1st, 2019 23:52
For me, it's JuJu and Chubb for sure. After that, I would be flipping a coin between Sony & Boyd personally. If you take Sony, you got a couple solid RBs which means you could focus on early WRs and get Green instead of Boyd.
#10 By: William Russell, April 2nd, 2019 09:51
@devinmci thanks again for the input, really helpful. My understanding of the keeper rules is that undrafted free agent pickups during the season (these are numerous) are drafted in rounds 10-12 the following season, to account for the fact that there are frequently more than 1 per team. For e.g. I have had JuJu & Funchess for 2 years now. As undrafted pickups during 2017, I kept Funchess in 10th & JuJu in 12th in the 2018 draft (Marvin Jones was a past keeper in 11th).
I'm not sure why Funchess was kept in 10 vs JuJu in 12th (possibly because I picked up Funchess before JuJu originally, though we don't seem to have a rule covering that). The net result is that each moves up a round for 2019 i.e. Funchess (9) & JuJu (11). This has obviously worked out well for me, as JuJu in 11th vs his 2nd ADP is amazing value, while Funchess' keeper status is actually lower than the pick currently needed to acquire him in redraft (though that will doubtless change now he's on the Colts).
This has been instructive. I'm defo keeping JuJu & Chubb and your case for Sony as my 3rd keeper is really interesting. RBs are hard to trade for in my league, so having him up my sleeve as someone I could flip to land some top tier WRs is an interesting idea.