#1 By: bmoff, October 10th, 2017 16:01
Due to bad luck mostly (6th in Pts Scored but 1st in Pts Against by a mile, along with some injuries), I'm 1-4 and last place in my dynasty league, 12 teams. Playoffs start Week 13 so 7 weeks left. Odds aren't good (my div has 3 teams that are 4-1 already).
Should I wait and see what the playoff picture looks like in a few weeks? Or should I start trying to load up for 2018 draft / season? Have tried trading for multiple QBs, but other owners are stingy unless I drop a godfather type offer...
Here's my roster:
#2 By: jesseross99, October 10th, 2017 16:52
One thing I would say is, be careful with these kinds of deals. For example, someone in your kinda position might have sold a Larry Fitzgerald type four years ago when he turned 30...and let's say they sold him for a draft pick that became Bishop Sankey...bet they regret that now. Not saying you would make such a silly deal, of course, but just keep in mind that "old" players can still have a few years left of productivity. In your case, something to keep in mind when you get offers for Demayrius in particular.
A counterveiling thought is that draft picks are pretty cheap to acquire right now. A strategy of buying picks now and selling them prior to the draft (for a Larry Fitz type!) will probably lead to a lot of value.
I also go "zero-QB" a lot and other owners try to take me hostage. Don't give in! FWIW, my best bet to be the next Mike Glennon is Brett Hundley. What I did this year was use Glennon (who I'd acquired the year previous) to parlay into a better starter. But you can win with the Daltons of the world.
Not sure if that is all helpful, but that's what swirls in my mind when I read your question!
#3 By: bmoff, October 10th, 2017 19:51
Thanks Jesse. Yeah I hear you on overrating the value of picks/rookies. Trying to keep that in mind is hard, when you have guys like Elliott, Hunt, etc., blowing lids off in their first year lol...
Just trying to think long-term. Not waste my time only to go .500 and miss fantasy playoffs with nothing to show for it...
For kicks, here's an example in my league: One owner has Cousins, Garoppolo, Smith, Siemian, and Watson (5 QBs) and won't give up any of them for anything less than a Tier2 WR starter. I don't get it. It's just a 1QB league, 4pt TDs. It's dumb... And there is no way in hell I'm trading Thomas straight up for any of those guys.
#4 By: Max , October 10th, 2017 20:55
I assumed that was Michael Thomas but if not, you have a lot of WR that will be 29/30 next year, which means they will be tough to deal in the offseason. I'd shop any/all of DT, Tate, Baldwin, Funchess. Witten might net you something as well with all the TE injuries of late. With the bump to your own pick, I'd look into a Diggs/Odell swap. Don't sell just to sell but there are plenty of injured stars to chase for a team like yours. Good luck.
#5 By: jesseross99, October 11th, 2017 00:14
Man @bmoff I hear you on the QB thing. Just stay strong, there's always a patchwork you can make work, always a Brian Hoyer available who will put up good stats in the right matchups, etc. The example owner you are describing is just hurting their team. [Full disclosure, in a dynasty league where I was 1.5pts away from the title with a Tannehil/Cutler QB duo two years ago, this offseason I panic-traded a late 2nd for Big Ben. Don't be like me.]
Rookies are great sure, but Hunt went in the late 1st early 2nd. Diggs went undrafted in a lot of leagues. Most guys take a bit of time to pan out.
That said, no sense in not kicking the tires on the kind of deals @Mr_Orange suggests. Any time you can get an edge by taking a temporary discount on a star player it is worth it, and I love turning quarters into dollar bills. Just make sure it is for true stars like OBJ not guys who might get washed out by the injury (not necessarily out of the league, but into a less favorable spot for fantasy). #visionsofRonnieBrown
#6 By: bmoff, October 11th, 2017 10:47
Yeah, Michael Thomas. And yes, I've been trying to shop Tate and to a lesser extent Baldwin, but not a lot of bites. Funchess/etc are just extras. Waiver wire guys basically.
Yeah, that's what I did with Allen Robinson when he went to IR. Gave up a piece and pick I had received earlier...
Any thoughts on other potential trade targets? Maybe younger guys who are overlooked?
#7 By: Max , October 11th, 2017 14:00
hmm if it is a 12 team, 19-21 roster spots that is a really shallow league. Basically keep trying to 2-1 for the better player and I'd be more willing to deal my non-1st round picks.
My buy low list is a lot of fairly obvious names. As always, you need to look into if villain is competing or rebuilding, where their depth and weaknesses are, etc.
QB - Luck, Trubisky, Bradford (I do not think week 1 was a mirage for this offense)
RB - Ingram, Mixon, D'onta (Miller never gets hurt so I might be moving off this for now)
WR - Amari, Corey Davis, Doctson, Cam Meredith, Juju (could be the 2nd option moving forward)
TE - OJ Howard, Shaheen (Bears O are the next Titans)
#8 By: bmoff, October 11th, 2017 15:51
Great suggestions! Yeah it's a 12 team, 22 spots, 9 starters, 4 IR spots. I'll look into some of those trades, but I might need to wait a few more weeks until the playoff picture is a little less fuzzy.
#9 By: jesseross99, October 11th, 2017 16:01
Whereas those are the exact kind of targets I would be avoiding, for the most part. Especially the TEs.
#10 By: bmoff, October 11th, 2017 16:03
Who's on your list jesse?
#11 By: jesseross99, October 11th, 2017 18:16
To be clear, I do like some of the previous suggestions...Luck and Amari in particular.
My philosophy is to target either: (a) studs who have fallen on hard times, like Luck or Amari; or (b) guys who look like shit now, but have decent pedigree. For (b) I am looking for the Devante Adams (circa prior to last year) and Funchess (circa prior to this year) types. In other words, guys with pedigree you can get an actual discount on. Because while yes, guys like Amari are notionally "buy-lows" right now, most Amari owners are "true believer" types who are holding strong at higher valuations. Generally this will be younger guys who just need a bit more time to break out (like Funch, who only turned 23 this year).
I also like to target second-year RBs who were uninspiring in year one but have a good shot at volume in year two (think Ray Rice, Lev Bell as prototypes). Obviously easier said than done.
I also rarely target TEs...why wait for an OJ Howard to break out when you can get Jason Witten (or similar) every year for basically free.
Some suggestions of guys with legit pedigree you could get an actual discount on:
- Curtis Samuel
- Samaje Perine
- Corey Coleman
- CJ Procise
- Kenneth Dixon
- Jamison Crowder
- Eric Decker
- Sammy Watkins
- Tyrell Williams (ok no pedigree here, but he's a UDFA at season's end)
- Laquon Treadwell
Obviously that's not as sexy as a list that includes guys like Joe Mixon and Corey Davis. And don't get me wrong, if the Mixon and Davis, etc., owners are looking to sell low, for sure jump on that. But its a list of guys you can get an actual discount on.