#1 By: Jordan, November 3rd, 2017 14:35
First year in a dynasty league. I think I am throwing in the towel this year.
Under-performers, injuries, etc.
12 man PPR roster:
QB: Ryan, Bortles, Lynch
RB: Bell, Coleman, Riddick, Prosise, Gallman, Smallwood, Kenyan Drake, Andre Ellington, DJ Foster, Dwyane Washington
WR: Diggs, Parker, Tate, ARob, Paul Richardson, Robert Woods, John Brown, Geranimo Allison, Pharoh Cooper, Phillip Dorsett, Ricardo Louis, Taywan Taylor
TE: Bennett, Ebron, Rico Gathers
I was offered Curtis Samuel and a 2nd (rookie draft) for Devante Parker
What is everyone thoughts? I know I need a TE as well..
#2 By: Shawn Siegele , November 3rd, 2017 16:19
My biggest recommendation is to not think in terms of building around certain players or addressing specific needs. Try to make any and all trades that increase your flexibility and overall team value. Try to establish yourself as someone who makes a high volume of trades and is easy to deal with (as opposed to someone who only trades on their own terms and tries to squeeze every last cent out of a trade).
Be aware of the elements on rosters that are mostly likely to change in value (and which direction the change is likely to be) and which will hold their value.
For example, last week with a dynasty team that's in first place, I traded Zay Jones, 2018 R1, R2, R4 for Jarvis Landry, Lamar Miller, and Pierre Garcon. That traded looked favorable to me - as was noted by at least one league member - but it was a trade I was still reluctant to make as it had some (not-so-)hidden drawbacks.
However, this was a trade that helped me accomplish my goals and helped my trading partner accomplish his. Moreover, by not fighting for every last little bit - and thus scuttling the trade - the other owner ended up with a brilliant trade.
If he hated waited any longer to find a better deal ...
... the price on Zay would have gone up after his first good game.
... the value of Garcon would have gone to almost zero.
... the value of Miller would have dropped significantly.
The picks are going to maintain their value and possibly increase around draft time when rookie enthusiasm is at its highest. Meanwhile, players like Garcon and Miller have almost nowhere to go but down. (In some instances, a playoff owner may lose a key piece and overpay; so it's possible, if unlikely, that he could have gotten more in a different scenario where Garcon and Watson had stayed healthy and a different owner was more desperate later.)
I had a similar situation happen the previous week when acquiring Hogan (who hopefully will be back, but he did injure his shoulder).
The idea isn't to never trade to make your playoff roster better - sometimes that will make sense, especially in deep leagues where low-level starters may represent more points over replacement - but that you want to be aware of the risk in doing so and thinning out your roster's future trade value and as the seller/rebuilder you want to recognize the risk in holding players for a better deal that never materializes.
I turn over a big chunk of my rosters every year and try to stay in the mindset of perpetual reloading/rebuilding even with rosters that are young title teams. That often means trading some of the best players (the players with actual trade value) because it creates rosters with the most total value and the most tradeable assets going forward.
Anyway, I don't know that's necessarily what you were interested in, but it's something we've been talking about on the pod recently. Also, I would take Samuel and the R2 for Parker, but I'm higher on Samuel and lower on Parker than most. (You can probably work it into a slightly better deal with more players, using the info that your trade partner is interested in Parker and that Samuel and the R2 are both available.)
#3 By: Jordan, November 3rd, 2017 18:57
That was awesome, i definitely understand where you are coming from. I did let the league know I'm open for business and have received numerous offers.
Currently have the Samuel/2nd for Parker
Sterling Shepard/1st for ARob OR Diggs - which is better to get rid of, ARob?
Thanks for your response and help, as this is my first dynasty league, so gauging value for picks is tricky for me.
#4 By: hrr5010, November 4th, 2017 09:57
@FF_Contrarian I'm stealing this note for one of the upcoming columns.
#5 By: hrr5010, November 4th, 2017 10:15
I wouldn't do that deal for Parker. Seems far too light. Also - we don't know if Samuel is any good.
#6 By: Jordan, November 4th, 2017 12:55
what are your thoughts on Shepards long term value?
It seems like him and 1st is good for an ARob that is coming off an ACL and up in the air to where he goes, right?
#7 By: Shawn Siegele , November 4th, 2017 15:17
One way to think about Parker vs. Samuel/2nd is to consider what would have to happen to lose this trade as opposed to seeing them as static values.
In order to maintain his value, Parker needs to be healthy over the second half of the season and play well in an offense that the HC just labeled "worst in the NFL." An offense where he has a poor QB and solid competition from Landry and Stills for targets.
Also, Samuel needs to not break out over the second half of his rookie campaign. Those two scenarios may both be more likely than not, but they both need to happen for the Samuel/2nd side not to have more value at the end of the year.
In terms of hit rate, the 2nd round pick is not particularly valuable, but it's also important to consider the potential upside when a player does hit. Already, numerous second-round picks from the 2017 draft are worth more than Parker. Kamara, Engram, Watson. Depending on the draft, Hunt and Smith-Schuster fell into the 2.03 range, and both players have more than double Parker's value (at least by my board). Aaron Jones and Kenny Golladay only need a couple of good games to be worth more than Parker, and they were R3 picks.
The key is to acquire volume, because you'll also have plenty of misses, but that's where a 2-for-1 can be beneficial. It's also important not to look at each trade individually in assessing value. For example, if you trade 6 veterans for, say, 5 young players and 8 picks, its what you do with all of those picks that matters, not deciding that an individual trade was an L because you used the pick from that trade on Perine (for example).
(And again, this is mostly just in service of thinking about the problem as opposed to saying you should definitely do the trade. I'm probably too high on Samuel and too low on Parker.)
As for the ARob and Diggs proposals. I'm not as excited about those. Robinson and Diggs are both top-20 dynasty guys. They have extremely impressive age- and experience-adjusted production and are both impressive athletically. Both players are more likely to rise into the top 10 (where Robinson has been before) than fall away.
Shepard is certainly a guy I'd look to acquire but in situations where he's more of a clear throw-in. He's been impressive this season but profiles as their long term No. 3 behind Beckham and Engram.
If you're looking to sell Robinson, I'd include him in a variety of offers to other owners and see what the responses are. (The value of being a friendly and high-volume trader is that it's much easier to identify the other owner who has the highest value on players you're trying to sell if you've established yourself as easy to trade with.)
#8 By: hrr5010, November 4th, 2017 21:31
Stealing this for the column as well.
#9 By: Dennis, November 4th, 2017 22:35
Stealing all this for my column....if i had 1
#10 By: Dennis, November 4th, 2017 22:39
these be the willing trader thoughts remind me of poker...it's really important to not play so conservatively that opponents never "do business" with u. if theyve seen u make a 1 or a number of what they think are suboptimal decisions...theyll play hands with u and bet that they have u beat. in poker u essentially "buy" the reputation of someone who makes SOME mistakes sometimes. and then hopefully make less of them when u play for big money.
might be some of that happening here, as well as all the info u gather by simply negotiating communicating .
#11 By: McG, November 6th, 2017 09:06
Not as seasoned as @FF_Contrarian but would agree about establishing yourself as the willing trader.
It's a role I have in my primary league. I've been offered trades because people would rather engage with someone who will deal instead of trying to auction a guy. I've also dealt with less haggling around the margins because people know if this trade is a little unfair, we can make it up down the line.
#12 By: hrr5010, November 6th, 2017 10:13
@JollyG804 and @McG stealing this for the column as well.
This is a fantastic discussion.
#13 By: Jordan, November 6th, 2017 14:18
I ended up dealing parker...it has definitely had people offering me more trades. The same guy now wants Diggs/1st for Michael Thomas, but I dont think that fits into my re-tooling and getting picks.
He also said he wants Golden Tate. Is it crazy to offer him Tate/2nd for Corey Davis? Seems like Tate has more value ROS
#14 By: Dennis, November 6th, 2017 14:25
honored, and lookin forward to it. something I try to do is remind people of the worst trades ive made , sometimes i even screen shot my offers that people reject. people in my league joke that i always send offers which is true. so theyre not always good for me. i screen shot a preseason offering of Hunt and Fitz for McCaffrey and Martavis which looked particuarly awful before the Palmer injury and Benjamin trade.
I made sure to show it to the McCaffrey owner who turned me down weeks later and remind him how much of a "gambler" i am. later that week the same guy sent me McCaffrey for Jarvis. I checked in with you here before declining. but the offer came cuz i have the rep now as the zany trader
#15 By: hrr5010, November 6th, 2017 14:48
@j2cain We actually have an upcoming dynasty mock article so keep a look out for it. I actually think that gamble is one that I would consider, no questions asked. Corey Davis and Rishard Matthews are the only 2 WRs under contract for next season. I actually wrote up Corey Davis as a great buy-low opportunity here.
@JollyG804 I enjoy the strategy side of things and this is the kind of stuff I was hoping to add to the Buy Low Report ROS. Primarily because I just want people to keep reading even if their teams are eliminated. There are lots of lessons to be learned from others and trading is certainly the art that most players need to master to be EV+ in the long run.
I'm getting smoked in a league after trading away Kamara/Duke Johnson for Ajayi/White. Injuries to several WRs (Diggs, Sanders) plus that trade single handedly sunk my team. I executed that trade before the AP deal, not after. I figured Ajayi's been so god awful he's bound to see more TDs whereas Kamara would be hard pressed sustaining this run of production going forward. Although I took an L in the trade, my WR struggles are what doomed my team and not the trade. Plus I took a few hard luck losses early in the year where most of my H2H losses were ~2 points or less. Sometimes you just run bad for a few weeks. It's why I prefer the dynasty aspect because of the long run pay off.
#16 By: Jordan, November 6th, 2017 16:07
I will keep my eye out for sure, but that trade was nixed - he feels giving up Corey Davis for Tate and a second is too much. He has offered Chad Williams and Willie Snead, but I dont think that is enough for Tate.
What kind of value does Tate hold in a dynasty? This being my first dynasty league, it's hard to gauge value, as everyone is all over the place. My thoughts on Tate would be a WR 2 in PPR for the next 3 or so years, and I try not to look further into the future than that.
#17 By: McG, November 6th, 2017 16:36
@j2cain you're correct that people value players way different in dynasty and especially in the first few years it can be hard to find agreed upon value.
You might also look an players who are on IR. If a team if close to the playoffs, they might make a trade they wouldn't make in the off season.
I made a trade last year of Ajayi and a 3rd round pick for Keenan Allen. I already had Gurley and Freeman, so Ajayi was a luxury and I saw it as an opportunity to get a top-12 WR.
#18 By: Dennis, November 6th, 2017 17:10
Great stuff, and yeah. i get that. i think the trades are the most mentally consuming and frustrating elements of a seasonal league. ill be on my way home from work listening to music and suddenly deep in the tank about whether or not i should move AJG for mike thomas +1 for playoff schedule. lol. and i hate when theres a shady trade.
i feel like theres PROBABLY some sort of untapped market for being in leagues where u can buy/sell trade guys for several weeks at a time. i often want to trade then trade back later. loving your columns on buy low guys and often feel relief when i read them like "ok whew! i considered this now i know to do it!" thanks for such great insight.
when Kamara broke out i got multiple of offers and after pulling the trigger twice (1) Kamara and D-Watson out for Ingram and brees in. and 2) kamara and garcon out for Cooper, jordan howard and r. wilson in) i couldnt part with him anymore cuz of Shawn's lofty expectations. and glad i didnt. he and diggs and tevin were my most owned guys preseason. gonna need them to carry me home cuz Cooper, Evans, Keenan, Julio r bummers so far
#19 By: hrr5010, November 6th, 2017 19:37
Certainly been rough with respect to the WRs. But good think you're making a move for the playoffs.
I believe @FF_Contrarian plays in several leagues that are very liquid. Most owners are very risk averse as they don't like to outright "lose" trades. It makes owners feel dumb. However, the converse of that is true as well. I.E - owners get so obsessed with winning a trade, they can't justify a fair trade where the other team wins.
For example I received several offers for Funchess in a dynasty league AFTER the Kelvin Benjamin news. One offer was Alex Collins for Rod Smith + Funchess and the other was a late second round pick for Funchess. I countered both trades looking for a younger player with a path to playing time and both times was told my ask was too aggressive. Now, Funchess is still 23 years old and is set to see a significant target share in the near future. Maybe he tops out as a WR2, but I need that this season.
But Funchess lacks brand equity. So if I see him as a valuable WR3+ over the next few years and other owners do as well (since they're looking to trade for him), why NOT give up a productive player. It's the only way you get one in return after all.
#20 By: William Russell, November 7th, 2017 10:25
This thread is fascinating. I'm approaching my (keeper) league's trade deadline and am trying to convince the Amari Cooper owner to do a trade for my Funchess.
He was ready to do it before the 44pt PPR explosion a few weeks back. But has since cooled and wants the iron price. Should I even bother trying to do this anymore?
I'm unsure, considering I picked Devin up off the waiver wire and can keep him as a Rd 10-12 next year, per my league's rules.
Rest of my roster is as follows:
WR K Allen, Watkins, Funchess, Marvin Jones (keeper), Marqise Lee, Juju S-S, Zay Jones & TJ Jones
RB Mixon, DeM Murray, Abdullah & D'Onta Foreman
TE Gronk and Brate (keeper)
3 X WR default, plus 2 x FLEX (W/R, W/R/T). Minimum 1 x TE. Typically start 5 WR if everyone is available.
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