#1 By: Shawn Siegele , October 24th, 2018 14:59
Hey folks, we've been talking about the imminent arrival of the new weekly Sim Score app, and while ace programmer @jim_kloet is still making adjustments, we have a version we'd like to share with our forum participants.
To give you a sense of what you're looking at, the app starts with the player and current stats. (You can also choose to select game log in the other tab.)
It then provides several options for scoring format and how to visualize the weekly Sim projections.
And finally, you can browse the game log for the Similar players. (Jim will explain a little more about his secret sauce for creating the similar "player-games" soon.)
Try this out, and let us know what you think. We're still in testing on this, but we wanted to put it out there for you to explore and provide feedback.
Also, the Weekly Explorer is ready for Week 8, and I strongly encourage everyone to check that out. In addition to the GLSP information, there are so many cool stats and visualizations, like this one from Blair's just published look at EP from Week 7.
#2 By: Daniel Schultz, October 25th, 2018 13:25
I would be curious to see a discussion on how this calculates scores vs how Dave's Programs calculates scores though I realize it might not be possible since we are probably dealing with proprietary programs. Perhaps it could be discussed to some extent without revealing the inner workings. Other than that, I'd like to see both numbers tracked to determine if one program is more accurate than the other. It would be a lot of work but interesting.
#3 By: Shawn Siegele , October 26th, 2018 12:41
Just a quick note that we've added the Sim Score app to the menus and removed the old version. You now have the new app and the GLSP in the Weekly Explorer to peruse and compare/contrast for projections based on historical player/defense matches.
We're still looking for feedback on the new app from users as we continue to develop, and I appreciate the great feedback from @Badger.
#4 By: mrh, October 27th, 2018 22:13
I looked at the new app. Some comments:
First, I would like a way to filter what games of the player to include. Let's use Alex Collins as an example. Right now, I judge him to be the lead ballcarrier in BAL who will get some targets. Therefore, I do not think his time in SEA or in the first several games in BAL last year are relevant to how he'll perform this week. I'd like to be able to filter out those games. I also think the first couple of games this year aren't relevant either - he got 7 and 9 carries in G1 and G2. Since then he had had no fewer than 11. Maybe he'll be under 10 carries in certain game scripts, but I'd at least be able to filter out those games. It appears I can select certain games in the Game Log tab but I don't see any changes to the projections for Collins.
Second, when I look at the "Similar Historic Player-Games" for Collins, the first name is Reggie Bush in 2014. Bush was 29 then and past his prime. Most years he was primarily a receiving back although he did have a few seasons with 200+ carries. I have a hard time seeing the similarity between an aging receiving back and a young (24) RB who is mostly a runner with some use in the passing game. I understand you may want to keep your "Similarity score" formula proprietary, but it can't spit out guys like Bush, at least at age 29, when he averaged 7 att/game. Bush in 2011-2012, with 14 or 15 carries and 3-4 targets per game is still a little old (26-27) to be a comp for Collins, but at least the usage pattern is similar to my expectations for Collins.
To me, a similar player ought to be +/-1 year in age, have about +/- 10% or even 20% of the per-game carries and targets in the range of the input game logs and with +/- 10% of the main efficiency stats (YPA, YPR, catch rate).
Let's take Collins from Game 5 last year thru last week. I'll include G! and G2 this year for this example. In that span, he was 23 and 24 years old (using Dec 31st age) of 2017-2018) had 231 carries and 44 targets per 16 games or 14.4 and 2.7 per game. He averaged 3.9 YPA, 7.8 YPR, and 67% CR. To me, "similar" RBs would be 22-25 years old and in their seasons at those ages have had between 11.5 and 17.3 att/g and between 2.2 and 3.2 tgt/g (using +/-20%). Their efficiency on those opportunities would be 3.5 to 4.3 YPA, 7.0 to 8.6 YPR, and 60% to 74% CR (using +/- 10%). Maybe those are too wide or too narrow, some tesing would need to be done, but at least those are roughly "similar" RBs who'd seem more like Collins than 29-yo Bush (and maybe I'm harping too much on one outlier).
I didn't give the same attention to the defense sim scores, but I'd expect the relevant games to those against team defenses roughly similar to 2018 CAR (or maybe the last 16 games of CAR - maybe I could filter that input too to account for teams whose D personnel has radically changed - i.e. the Bears with Mack or the Chiefs w/o Peters).
Finally, I don't play on ESPN, DraftKings, or Fan Duel and therefore their scoring systems are unfamilar to me. I'd at least expect PPR or non-PPR plus maybe 1.5 TE PPR (see, I know FPPC). For QBs I'd want to be able to select 20 or 25 yds = 1 FP and TD passes = 4 or 6 FP.
I really liked the old GLSP apps that gave me a lot of what I wanted if not everything. So far neither the new app nor the Weekly Explorer gives me the same functionality.