#1 By: Daniel Schultz, December 6th, 2017 13:33
Prior to the season, I read most of the player A vs Player B profiles and noted which ones I favored. In some cases, it may have been due to my own thoughts but in many ways it was swayed strongly by the more convincing argument. So, in case any of the writers of the various Players A vs Player B are interested, here were my thoughts after reading the various articles. the players shown on the left (players A) are who I felt "won" the argument over player B and I've added the scores from espn PPR.
Crowell 101 Miller 159
Riddick 100 Perkins 14
Crowder 112 Snead 8
Ingram 198 anderson 104
Adams 171 Watkins 115
Kelce 188 reed 57
Luck x Brady
Gurley 247 fournette 167
Montgomery 83 ware x
Jones 172 Britt 50
Hunt 192 Prosise 15
Gordon 192 Freeman 115
Rudolph 126 Bennett 54
Thomas 138 Nelson 116
Hilton 136 Robinson x
Jones 188 Beckum x
Gore 108 Peterson 71
Landry 180 Allen 205
Fuller 89 locket 81
Looking at the results, the articles appeared to help sway me in the correct direction in most cases. Thanks for putting together the series. It would be kind of neat of the various writers could say which players they covered if they happen to see this.
#2 By: devinmci, December 6th, 2017 21:18
I took Michael Thomas > Jordy Nelson
The gist of MT was that there was a narrative that Jordy was guaranteed high target volume and MT wasn't, due to the Saints offense. I said the opposite was true, and that pretty much played out, although Rodgers going down largely made it moot by Week 6.
Jordy Nelson’s 150 target seasons have been driven by necessity, not offensive philosophy. He got there with an enormous target market share (28.2 percent) due to teammate injuries in 2013, and an unusually large number of pass attempts due to injuries in the secondary and running game in 2015. Nelson is a stud, who commands deep targets and end zone targets, and has earned the absolute trust of his quarterback. He’s also 32 years old, has sustained serious injuries in consecutive seasons (torn ACL, broken ribs), and has the strongest group of complementary receivers he’s had in many years.
Give me Michael Thomas, who just turned in one of the best rookie seasons ever, will be a focal point in the red zone, and who promises to be both the target leader and a plus receiver after the catch. The biggest risks to Thomas’ upside are if the Saints add Anquan Boldin, the defense takes a major step forward,
or if Drew Brees gets hurt. These last two are real risks, but ones faced by almost every wide receiver in the league.
At this point in a draft, I am taking a shot on the best receiver in the biggest passing offense. The efficiency is repeatable, and the cap on his volume is a myth. If any of his teammates falter, Thomas could be the first Saints receiver to catch 100 passes in a season.
#3 By: devinmci, December 6th, 2017 21:43
I also took Devonta Freeman > Melvin Gordon
Both guys obviously have huge upsides, but my recommendation was to embrace Freeman's safety in the passing game. Gordon's inefficiency as a runner and injury history was too much risk for me in Rd 1, given that his backups were both passing game backs--even the small chance that he started ceding passing work made him a huge landmine.
These things all have played out over the Chargers season (although with Ekeler replacing Barner), but Gordon's season has been buoyed by just massive work in the passing game. 96 of his fantasy points are receiving points, so that gamble has definitely paid off so far. Although we've seen Ekeler steadily eat into his touches, so the playoffs will be the test if Gordon is able to stay healthy and keep the heavy workload to deliver championships.
On the flipside, the bottom has totally fallen out of the Falcons passing game to the RBs. I probably should have weighted the new coach more, but given how successful Freeman has been in the passing game, it came as a big surprise to me how much they've abandoned that part of his game. Of course Freeman has missed a little time, but even aside from that, he's not going to pace the floor I gave him of 40 receptions.
I think both my piece and Eric Moody's piece hold up pretty well. Fortunately for me, I almost always drafted Michael Thomas with my late 1st round pick instead of taking a RB.
These guys will steal targets from Gordon this year, and if it even appears to help Gordon stay fresh as a runner, they could steal a lot of targets. Even the small risk of Gordon being primarily an early-down back makes him too expensive for me with Freeman still on the board.
It’s certainly possible to view Gordon–a first round pick in 2015–as a rising third-year player with room to grow into a true bell cow. But if I’m spending a first round pick on an RB, I’m embracing the safety of Freeman’s role as an elite pass-catcher, who is also guaranteed starter-level carries. Barring injury, Freeman is a bust-proof pick with the potential to put up the bonkers numbers in the passing game that we expect again from Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson.
#4 By: hrr5010, December 7th, 2017 08:42
I took Ware over TyMo: http://rotoviz.com/2017/06/spencer-ware-ty-montgomery-fantasy-face-off/
I also took Crowder over Snead: http://rotoviz.com/2017/06/jamison-crowder-willie-snead-fantasy-face-off/
However, I should add that I was against TyMo's spiraling ADP around draft season: http://rotoviz.com/2017/08/love-ty-montgomery-hate-price/?hvid=4JlPsy
While Ware's injury certainly made my discussion moot, I think the Crowder piece holds up reasonably well. With Crowder you were buying Cousins's most efficient receiver who entered a target vacuum. Look who's sitting on the top of the target totem pole now?
#5 By: Adam Eraky, December 7th, 2017 10:59
I'm going to chime in here and also say that I loved this series from the summer. Really hoping Rotoviz brings it back again for next year!
#6 By: hrr5010, December 7th, 2017 13:12
I'm hoping we do as well. It's especially fun if you play in MFL10's, because you can refer to guys with similar ADPs. This is my first season playing best ball leagues, and it's been fun. keeps that FF itch going over the off season