#1 By: Adam Eraky, July 30th, 2018 17:18
Thought we could get some keeper discussions going, especially as those decisions will likely need to be made in the next few weeks (if they haven't already). Feel free to add your question on and we can create a thread to post in for keeper questions.
In my main league, you're allowed up to 3 keepers, for whatever draft pick it took to acquire them the previous year. If they were a waiver wire claim, they cost your last pick (round 15). If you keep a player for a 2nd year in a row, it'll cost you your 1st round pick.
Also, this league is fairly QB heavy. With that in mind, here are my options:
QB: Luck (10th) Cousins (5th)
RB: David Johnson (1st) Gordon (1st) Hunt (3rd) Ingram (7th)
WR: Mike Evans (2nd) Keenan Allen (3rd) Amari (1st) Tate (6th)
TE: Gronk (5th)
Suffice it to say, I have a lot of options. I'm currently zeroed in on the following group: Johnson, Hunt, Keenan, Gronk, Luck. If I go Johnson & Hunt, I'd probably want to grab a WR in the 2nd, but I don't have a 4th round pick, so I'd hopefully get a solid WR1 and then whatever remains in the 5th (up to 30 players being kept).
If I cast David Johnson out, I could keep Hunt, Gronk & Luck, and hope that I could get some combo of OBJ, Julio, AJ Green & Thomas with my 1st & 2nd picks (going with a psuedo zero-rb style draft).
Anyway, would appreciate some input!
#2 By: Matt, July 31st, 2018 13:09
What's the scoring format? PPR, 1/2, standard? How many flexes? Is it superflex?
#3 By: Adam Eraky, July 31st, 2018 16:25
1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 2 FLEX 1 TE, PPR league. Sorry, that was probably relevant info lol.
#4 By: devinmci, August 1st, 2018 21:12
How does it work with Hunt/Keenan both 3rds. If you keep both, do you give up your 2nd & 3rd round picks? Or can you only keep one player from any given round?
I'd be pretty tempted to go Hunt/Keenan Gronk, if you somehow get a 1st and 2nd pick still. But if not, it's pretty tempting to go DJ, Keenan, Gronk.
#5 By: Adam Eraky, August 2nd, 2018 19:28
If I kept Hunt & Keenan, I'd have to give up my 2nd & 3rd.
I'm leaving towards DJ, Hunt & Gronk, and hope for a stud WR in the 2nd, but I'm on the fence for sure. Because Keenan might be there in the 2nd, but so could Julio potentially, or even OBJ if I get extremely lucky (roughly half the teams won't have 1st round picks is my current guess on keepers).
#6 By: devinmci, August 2nd, 2018 22:25
I don't think you can go wrong really with either choice. In full PPR, Keenan could really eat this year. Would have no problem pairing him with whatever WR falls to you in the 2nd.
#7 By: Matt, August 3rd, 2018 12:19
You've got a lot of good options. Gronk is a no-brainer, and I'd keep Keenan Allen over Hunt with the 3rd rounder (it's the zero rb in me). Not sure what I'd do for the 3rd one but like I said, you've got a ton of options to work with. I would not keep a QB since it's not a superflex league and I think the QB position is deeper than it's ever been.
#8 By: Matt, August 3rd, 2018 12:43
I'll throw my hat in the ring for advice as well. 0.5 PPR, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 W/R/T, can keep 3, 1 round escalation each year, can't keep last year's 1st round picks, no limit on number of years you can keep guys, UDFAs can be kept for a 6th, if two picks in the same round are kept, then one of those picks goes up a round (i.e., keep 2 UDFAs, 1 costs a 6th, the other costs a 5th).
Here are my keeper options:
Alvin Kamara 12th rounder (thanks to @FF_Contrarian for your zero rb draft targets--hope you do them again this year)
Jerick McKinnon 6th rounder
Devonta Freeman 5th rounder
Stefon Diggs 4th rounder
Kamara is a no-brainer. I'm leaning towards keeping all 3 RBs as a way to win the flex, and I'm getting more value that way (i.e., 4th + McKinnon is more valuable than 6th + Diggs). And I can just hammer WR for several rounds (while also trying to get Gronk or Kelce if I can).
Here are the guys in the top 30 or so ADP who will likely be kept:
David Johnson (9th), Kamara (12th), Michael Thomas (9th), Davante Adams (10th), Devonta Freeman (5th), Jordan Howard (5th), Jerick McKinnon (6th), Doug Baldwin (11th), Tyreek Hill (5th), Adam Thielen (5th), Stefon Diggs (4th), Zach Ertz (7th). As you can see, not very many top 15 picks but a lot between 15 and 35, so by the 3rd round you're really drafting 4th round guys. But you can also see that I have really good keepers relative to the rest of the league.
I don't know where I'm drafting. It will likely be in the back half of the 1st round. My league isn't particularly WR heavy (I'm the only zero rb guy) and I'd guess that they'll follow the trend of trying to get those RBs early.
My ideal draft would be to get a top 5 WR in round 1, Gronk in round 2, and another top 15 WR in round 3 (Diggs, Hilton, Cooper, Fitzgerald), but I'm not sure they'll fall that far, which is why I'm still considering Diggs. My perception of the WR position is that it's not as deep as it once was in terms of high scoring players, but maybe that's just recency bias and remembering last year's wr scoring drop.
#9 By: devinmci, August 5th, 2018 04:56
I think you're right that the scarcity at WR is higher.
- Carson Palmer is gone
- Brady/Brees a year older
- No clear WR1 in New England with Edelman suspension
- Jameis suspended, plus a great deal of competition rising for Mike Evans
- Tyreek/Watkins stuck with promising but unknown QB
- Two of the most exciting young QBs coming off major injury in Wentz/Watson
- Jordy downgraded to Carr, and no clearcut 2nd producer in GB
- Dez not on a team
- Kelvin Benjamin stuck with Josh Allen, and then unknown target situation in CAR
- Josh Gordon maybe returning, but also stuck on same team as Jarvis, possibly eliminating two WR1 contenders
That said, I still think you go with Freeman. You get your 4th round pick, and if Diggs doesn't fall to you in the 3rd (pretty likely), you can still probably trade Freeman for Diggs+, because he's a powerful keeper for next year as well and has a generally higher ADP anyway.
#10 By: Alex, August 8th, 2018 18:53
Diggs as a 4th rounder feels like a no brainer for me, I really think you would struggle to find better value than that. Seagle pumped Will Fuller heavily in that podcast where he did a mock draft, so maybe consider him.
#11 By: Alex, August 8th, 2018 19:03
I have a question I would love to have more input from you guys. I play in a keeper league where we get to keep 2 players at no cost. It is an Auction, 0.5 ppr 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 1flex league.
So I had a great team last year and I can choose 2 from Antonio Brown, Alvin Kamara, and DeAndre Hopkings.
I will definitely keep Kamara, just think this guy's talent is absurd, sure td and yd/carry regression, but I still expect him to be way above average in both categories (so lower than last year's insane level, but still high). Also 2WR format drops WR priority a notch I think.
Now my question as crazy as it sounds is do I keep Brown or go with Hopkins? Naturally I expect Brown to have a better year in 2018, but I don't expect it to be by such a wide margin and considering Roethlisberger and Brown's age I feel Hopkins might be a better choice longterm (with little cost to this year).
Like I said this is auction and I could still buy either of them if I bid strongly, but I could also go after Barkley, or maybe go for Gronk... what do you guys think?
#12 By: Matt, August 9th, 2018 11:19
For this year only I'd go AB. Josh Hermsmeyer actually likes Julio over Hopkins this year. Long term I think Hopkins just because he's younger, but I wouldn't be surprised to see AB ball out for another 2-3 years at least, assuming he has a QB that is at least mediocre. Keep in mind, both of them are GREAT options, so it's not like there's a wrong answer to your question.
#13 By: Jason, August 9th, 2018 11:57
Play in a .5 league where you can only keep 1 guy each year.
Can’t help but think Tev Coleman is an absolute steal in the 5/6 - seeing as he should be a top 20 pick next year right?
#14 By: Matt, August 9th, 2018 12:05
I would think so, depending on where he lands. I think it's a virtual certainty that he does not stay in Atlanta (can't afford him, drafted Ito Smith to presumably replace him) and he has a much better track record than Jerick McKinnon and look at where McKinnon is going in draft. That being said, McKinnon went to the absolute perfect destination and we have no idea where Coleman will end up. But he has a fairly obvious path to increased value 12 months from now.
#15 By: devinmci, August 9th, 2018 17:33
@aduhart Keep Kamara for sure. With 24 kept players, top RBs will be insanely expensive, while you might have a shot at a player like Davante Adams or AJ Green. The appeal of keeping Hopkins year after year is appealing, but presumably you'll find a 3rd valuable keeper at some point in the next 2-3 years that could replace AB, and he's just been in a situation that provides him too much value to bet against.
#16 By: Alex, August 14th, 2018 12:26
Thanks for input! I will go with Brown, unless something unexpected happens during pre-season. There was an article in Rotoviz about how hopkins is being valued at his ceiling, made sense and difference with expected value from Brown was like 40pts or more which is pretty significant.
#17 By: devinmci, August 14th, 2018 22:21
AB outscored Hopkins by 1.5 ppg last year, and Hopkins got insane targets, in part due to the collapse of the receiving group--Fuller, Braxton, Bruce Ellington, Tyler Ervin, Fiedo, Ryan Griffin all injured. I mean they had Andre Ellington playing WR by the end of the year. Hopkins played 100% of Houston's offensive snaps.
#18 By: Julie Davis, August 15th, 2018 11:54
I need a little help with a decision I have to make. I need to choose between keeping K. Allen or D. Adams, usually it’d be an easy choice I’d take Allen right? However Rodgers is my QB so keeping Adams would allow me to stack every week which is very appealing to me.
Thanks for the help guys!
#19 By: Adam Eraky, August 15th, 2018 14:45
What is the cost to keep the two? In a vacuum, despite the stack, I'd still probably go with Allen. Depending on cost though, it could swing in favor of Adams
#20 By: Julie Davis, August 15th, 2018 18:05
We have a strange dynasty/keeper system with a $200 budget. We use yahoos values & we’re allowed to use $100 of our budget on keepers & our keepers we get at 1/2 price. That’s our reward for drafting well. Yahoos price will fluctuate before our draft but I don’t anticipate them moving much? My current roster is as follows...
Rodgers- $29 my price $15 we round up
K Allen- $48-$24
K Hunt- $50-$25
D Adams- $46-$23
D. Lewis- $18-$9
J Nelson- $8-$4
I have others but I’ve limited my choices to these players. I’m leaning to keeping Rodgers although QB is so deep this year I could be talked out of it? Right now I’m thinking about keeping
Rodgers, Adams, OBJ, Hunt, Mack that would put me at $100 on the nose.
OBJ, Hunt, Allen, Gronk, Mack $99
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