#1 By: RotoViz, May 21st, 2018 11:00
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2018/05/projecting-upside-the-predictability-of-receiving-touchdowns/
If targets are the lifeblood of fantasy scoring and the addition of air yards helps us explain 80 percent of a wide receiver’s receiving yards, then volume can be viewed as the force that drives opportunity to collect fantasy points. But touchdowns act as the fantasy point multiplier. Therefore, it’s valuable to determine what is and what isn’t predictive of touchdown scoring.
#2 By: bmoff, May 21st, 2018 14:37
Thanks for the insight, Michael. I might do this on my own for last year but maybe also historically. Query: are there guys who are due for regression but always seem to succeed in redzone?
Here are a few big outliers I looked up really quick (negative is underscored TDs, numbers are slightly rounded for simplicity):
Julio -16 career (-6 2017)
Thielen -6 career (-4 2017)
Golden Tate -6 career (-1 2017)
Larry Fitz +16 career (-1 2017)
Antonio Brown -4 career (-1 2017)
Dez Bryant +27! career (+1 2017)
AJ Green +5 career (+1 2017)
Doug B +6 career (+2 2017)
Davante Adams +9 career (+5 2017)
Gronk +29!!! career (+1 2017)