#1 By: RotoViz, April 18th, 2018 10:00
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2018/04/rethinking-nfl-age-curves-for-wrs-the-wrong-read-no-33/
Welcome to the 33rd installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular
#2 By: jesseross99, April 19th, 2018 00:13
#3 By: jesseross99, May 23rd, 2018 20:09
This series is so super interesting. As I do a startup, it really starts to crystallize - like, what should we be doing about guys like Adam Thielen (age 27), TY Hilton (28) and Doug Baldwin (29) if one of the key takeaways of your research is that we should probably be selling players earlier than we think? Do we take Will Fuller and DJ Moore instead? Or Alex Collins or Kenyan Drake types? I use those examples because they were all on the board when I just took TY at pick 44 of a startup, a decision I felt pretty good about until I remembered this article haha
#4 By: Blair Andrews, May 24th, 2018 20:59
Good question. Hilton and Baldwin are pretty clear sells for me in dynasty. Later breakouts like Thielen also tend to have repeat performances less often, and I also expect Diggs to become the true No. 1 there soon—like this season. I think all three will be fine this year and I’m not too worried in redraft, but I’m not looking to acquire any in dynasty unless they’re great values. Hilton at 44 maybe isn’t that bad, but of course it really depends on who you might have missed out on. I would definitely prefer Fuller and probably even Moore over all those guys in dynasty.
I traded Hilton and Derrick Henry this offseason for what amounted to Moore, Evan Engram, and Nyheim Hines, so that might give you some idea of what I’m thinking in terms of value.
I’d probably prefer Hilton or Baldwin or Thielen to Collins or Drake. I don’t think either RB has as secure a situation as their ADP might suggest, especially Collins. This one’s close enough that I might change my mind tomorrow though.