#1 By: RotoViz, May 18th, 2018 16:06
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2018/05/running-back-breakouts-should-you-draft-rookies-in-redraft-the-wrong-read-no-37/
Welcome to the 37th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes.…
#2 By: dkpsports, May 18th, 2018 17:47
I guess it ultimately depends on whether they are drafted in the top 24 for RBs in redraft to decide if they are a value.
#3 By: Blair Andrews, May 22nd, 2018 17:00
It's true, some rookie RBs might break out and still not be a value by ADP. But a lot of people assume you should avoid rookies altogether--as you might be implying, things are not so simple.
#4 By: William Russell, June 13th, 2018 06:34
@hba24 Blair, thanks for continuing this fascinating series. It's a must-read weekly, even here in the UK during the off-season. Who would be top of your rookie RB list for a 2018 league. I'm in a 3 player keeper redraft and thinking of hanging on to Chris Thompson drafted (R14) from last yr.
#5 By: hrr5010, June 13th, 2018 19:53
hey Will. out of curiosity, what do you give up in exchange for keeping the player? is it the 14th round pick or a round earlier? In either case, I would do that given that Thompson is currently going in the early rounds so the value you gain as a result is huge.
#6 By: Blair Andrews, June 14th, 2018 16:08
@Will Thanks so much--really appreciate it. Saquon is the top rookie and it's not close. After that I have Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman, and Rashaad Penny all in about the same tier. I really should update my rankings, but the top of the list won't be much different from what you see here: http://rotoviz.com/dynasty-rookie-rankings/
Thompson in the 14th is a great value. He should retain his role from early last season even with Washington drafting Guice.
#7 By: William Russell, June 15th, 2018 09:36
@hrr5010 Just doubled-checked our (slightly complex) league rules and drafted players who are kept go in the same round the first kept year and then go a round earlier each subsequent year they're kept. I'm unsure whether Thompson was ever kept previously (only been in the league 2 yrs) but if my interpretation is correct I'll get him in Rd 13-14 again. Which feels like a huge bit of value- my other two keepers will be JuJu (FA pickup = 10-12) and either Marvin Jones (11th), Marqise Lee (12th) or Funchess (also FA).
@hba24 My plan is to look to stock up on some good rookie RBs. I'll have solid WR core based on the above + drafting 1-2 bigger names in first couple of rounds, depending on what's available. Might be a good shout to grab Guice given that I'll have Thompson too. Where do you see him going in redraft?
#8 By: hrr5010, June 15th, 2018 10:26
@Will that's decent value for Chris Thompson, but i'd rather let him go for any of the other WRs you mentioned. Mostly because you'll have locked down several stronger options at the position for later round picks and can focus hammering RB early. This way you're able to snag three down bellcow RBs (think DJ/Gurley/Bell et al) without sacrificing your WR slot. meanwhile, thompson is a situational RB with the potential for blowup weeks but a very low floor.
i wonder if @hba24 agrees with this assessment.
#9 By: Blair Andrews, June 15th, 2018 11:32
@Will Jones and Funchess also appear to be great values in the double-digit rounds, based on redraft ADP. (Though tbh I see a lot of scenarios in which Marqise Lee outscores both of them.) JuJu is the best of the bunch so definitely keep him. I can see a case to be made for any of the other guys. Considering that you would probably be drafting Jones and Funchess somewhere around Rounds 5-6, I might rather keep them and focus on RBs in those rounds instead. Jones and Freeman should be there, or Tarik Cohen, or Tevin Coleman. All of those guys have more upside than Thompson. So I think I do agree with @hrr5010.
Guice is currently a fourth-round pick, which I think is too expensive. I'd rather have Penny, who I believe is going around the same time. I wouldn't worry about stacking that backfield if you keep Thompson. It might raise your floor to do so but it lowers your ceiling.