#1 By: RotoViz, May 18th, 2018 16:06
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2018/05/running-back-breakouts-should-you-draft-rookies-in-redraft-the-wrong-read-no-37/
Welcome to the 37th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes.…
#2 By: dkpsports, May 18th, 2018 17:47
I guess it ultimately depends on whether they are drafted in the top 24 for RBs in redraft to decide if they are a value.
#3 By: Blair Andrews, May 22nd, 2018 17:00
It's true, some rookie RBs might break out and still not be a value by ADP. But a lot of people assume you should avoid rookies altogether--as you might be implying, things are not so simple.
#4 By: William Russell, June 13th, 2018 06:34
@hba24 Blair, thanks for continuing this fascinating series. It's a must-read weekly, even here in the UK during the off-season. Who would be top of your rookie RB list for a 2018 league. I'm in a 3 player keeper redraft and thinking of hanging on to Chris Thompson drafted (R14) from last yr.
#5 By: hrr5010, June 13th, 2018 19:53
hey Will. out of curiosity, what do you give up in exchange for keeping the player? is it the 14th round pick or a round earlier? In either case, I would do that given that Thompson is currently going in the early rounds so the value you gain as a result is huge.
#6 By: Blair Andrews, June 14th, 2018 16:08
@Will Thanks so much--really appreciate it. Saquon is the top rookie and it's not close. After that I have Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman, and Rashaad Penny all in about the same tier. I really should update my rankings, but the top of the list won't be much different from what you see here: http://rotoviz.com/dynasty-rookie-rankings/
Thompson in the 14th is a great value. He should retain his role from early last season even with Washington drafting Guice.
#7 By: William Russell, June 15th, 2018 09:36
@hrr5010 Just doubled-checked our (slightly complex) league rules and drafted players who are kept go in the same round the first kept year and then go a round earlier each subsequent year they're kept. I'm unsure whether Thompson was ever kept previously (only been in the league 2 yrs) but if my interpretation is correct I'll get him in Rd 13-14 again. Which feels like a huge bit of value- my other two keepers will be JuJu (FA pickup = 10-12) and either Marvin Jones (11th), Marqise Lee (12th) or Funchess (also FA).
@hba24 My plan is to look to stock up on some good rookie RBs. I'll have solid WR core based on the above + drafting 1-2 bigger names in first couple of rounds, depending on what's available. Might be a good shout to grab Guice given that I'll have Thompson too. Where do you see him going in redraft?
#8 By: hrr5010, June 15th, 2018 10:26
@Will that's decent value for Chris Thompson, but i'd rather let him go for any of the other WRs you mentioned. Mostly because you'll have locked down several stronger options at the position for later round picks and can focus hammering RB early. This way you're able to snag three down bellcow RBs (think DJ/Gurley/Bell et al) without sacrificing your WR slot. meanwhile, thompson is a situational RB with the potential for blowup weeks but a very low floor.
i wonder if @hba24 agrees with this assessment.
#9 By: Blair Andrews, June 15th, 2018 11:32
@Will Jones and Funchess also appear to be great values in the double-digit rounds, based on redraft ADP. (Though tbh I see a lot of scenarios in which Marqise Lee outscores both of them.) JuJu is the best of the bunch so definitely keep him. I can see a case to be made for any of the other guys. Considering that you would probably be drafting Jones and Funchess somewhere around Rounds 5-6, I might rather keep them and focus on RBs in those rounds instead. Jones and Freeman should be there, or Tarik Cohen, or Tevin Coleman. All of those guys have more upside than Thompson. So I think I do agree with @hrr5010.
Guice is currently a fourth-round pick, which I think is too expensive. I'd rather have Penny, who I believe is going around the same time. I wouldn't worry about stacking that backfield if you keep Thompson. It might raise your floor to do so but it lowers your ceiling.
#10 By: William Russell, June 25th, 2018 08:08
@hrr5010 interesting to hear your point on Thompson. In an ideal scenario then I could start with one of the 'big 3' RBs in rd 1, a top WR/Gronk in 2 and then look to pick up Thommo later on. I'm having issues using the MFL10 ADP at the moment, (it's all greyed out) so can't see where he's going on average. But figure he'll be available fairly late on.
@hba24 I'm a big fan of Marqise Lee. To me, the definition of a solid volume guy in PPR. I'm leaning towards keeping JuJu (obviously) and Marvin. Funchess and Lee are a bit of a coin flip. I have this vague feeling of unease that Funchess regresses more towards his career production to date with Panthers having added DJ Moore as their potential WR1, + with a healthy Olsen and having added Anderson to boost their running game...
#11 By: hrr5010, June 25th, 2018 10:35
@Will the issue with Thompson is that his ADP over the last week, he's routinely selected around pick 72, which is ridiculously high for a player with his skill-set. He's got a similar role as Riddick/James White but is going ahead of Rex Burkhead and Kerryon Johnson. both of Burkhead/Johnson could eventually become lead RBs in their respective committees, or at the very least have a more stable role than one that Thompson currently has.
You want to buy the guys who have the chance to become bellcows. Another similar guy would by Ty Montgomery, who represents a good warning regarding what MIGHT happen to CT this season. You could always draft him, but don't forget about the other RBs who should provide similar value this season.
#12 By: Blair Andrews, June 27th, 2018 00:01
Lee is the best bet to be the Jags' No. 1 option. Meanwhile it's not that hard to see Funchess finishing with the 4th-most targets on the Panthers, behind CMC, Olsen, and Moore. So I would tend to agree with you, and lean toward Lee. That said, Funchess is going off the board several rounds earlier, so Lee will be much easier to draft if you keep Funchess for what it sounds like will be a double-digit-round pick. If you wanted to try to go into the season with both, keeping Funchess will make that easier.
#13 By: William Russell, August 14th, 2018 07:02
@hrr5010 @hba24 Just wondering whether Guice's unfortunate ACL injury should affect my plans to keep Funchess (11th), Marvin Jones (11th) and JuJu (undrafted so 10th-12th RD) over Chris Thompson and Marqise Lee.
Does his blowup potential increase sufficiently to justify keeping him in RD 13? (keepers go a round ahead of last year)
#14 By: hrr5010, August 14th, 2018 08:14
I think you can still get by with those 3 as your keepers, since you can still address the RB position right from the top of the draft. That way you're still acquiring players with 3-down potential over Chris Thompson, who's likely not going to repeat his incredible efficiency.
But I'd love to hear @hba24's thoughts here.
#15 By: Blair Andrews, August 14th, 2018 08:47
Guice's injury may not increase Thompson's role that much. Thompson was always going to be the main 3rd-down back, and most of Guice's carries will likely go to Perine/Kelley. He's a good value in the 13th, but that was true before Guice's injury -- probably not that much has changed in terms of Thompson's value.
I'd still keep JuJu, no question. Although I like the value on Lee, he's going to be easier to draft if you want him, so I think I'd still keep Marvin & Funchess over him if you like all three. (I personally expect breakouts, or something close enough, from Golladay and Moore, so therefore I expect both Marvin and Funchess to underperform their ADPs -- but in the 11th that risk is already priced in.) Thompson in one way is safer than both those guys, because his role is not going to diminish from last year, and as we saw last year he does have nice upside. But as Hasan says, he's not getting a 3-down role.
You can look at ADP as a way to gauge who is going to be easier to add to your team in the draft and therefore less valuable as a keeper. Funchess and Thompson are about even:
#16 By: William Russell, August 14th, 2018 12:16
@hba24 @hrr5010 thanks again to you both for your detailed answers. Really helpful. I have just realised another keeper dilemma- I completely forgot I traded for Tevin Coleman late last season. He was drafted in R5, so would be a 4th round pick if kept for this yr.
I'm not sure if pt1 of the Zero RB candidates piece has been posted yet, but am reasonably sure he'll remain a top 10 candidate once again. should I be shifting my keeper priorities to snag him in Rd4, or is that too high i.e. should I take my chances with him in the draft itself?
#17 By: William Russell, August 14th, 2018 12:30
Having just since read the @Cort piece on What to look out for with Zero RB candidates I'm pretty sure I need to consider changing my keepers ahead of my upcoming draft...
#18 By: Blair Andrews, August 14th, 2018 12:46
Good question. The 4th is a little rich for Coleman, not in terms of his actual value to your team, necessarily, but in terms of where he's going in most drafts. You should probably be able to pick him in the 5th or 6th round. I think I'd rather have a 4th-round pick and the very good chance to get Coleman later, rather than guarantee Coleman but lose a high-leverage pick. Does this make sense?
There are a lot of good players you can often get in the 4th: ARob, Cooper sometimes, Landry, Ertz sometimes ... You could pair one of these guys with Coleman if you don't keep him for a 4th.
#19 By: hrr5010, August 14th, 2018 14:15
Just to add to one of the notes that @hba24 mentioned - Coleman's upside is baked into his redraft cost. The influx of RBs into the league has pushed a high value handcuff, with moderate FF value out of the high leverage rounds (rounds 1-5), allowing you to take him later.
Basically - you're drafting him below where he'd go in the event that Freeman got injured. So you're getting the bellcow scenario for free. It's not a good idea to lose a 4th round pick to make that exchange, since Freeman could remain healthy all season.
Additionally, you've addressed part of your WR corps, freeing you up to freely chase 3-down RBs earlier, before supplementing with additional WRs. It's a lethal combo, especially if guys like Marv/Funch/JJSS are still nominally productive. I personally expect Marvin Jones and Funchess to see some clawback in FF production, but they're no brainer picks if they ever fall to the 11th. They're going in the 6th round right now, so you're gaining almost 5+ rounds of equity there.
#20 By: William Russell, August 16th, 2018 15:44
@hrr5010 @hba24 thanks again to you both. Very insightful and these writer interactions are one of the main reasons I love Rotoviz. Have decided to keep JuJu, Funchess and Marvin based on the above and will take my chances with nabbing Coleman in 5th or 6th as suggested.
Now all I need is the rest of my league to confirm their keepers, so I can put it all in the Draft Dashboard and start doing some mocks before the draft itself.
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