#1 By: bskoczylas, May 7th, 2017 11:22
I'm interested in Rotoviz's opinion on the Sammy saga up here in Buffalo. With his contract on the line, I could see Sammy blowing up this year. We really don't have any other option in the passing game other than Clay. I would hope the new regime opens it up a little more than Rex's "ground and pound". The schedule looks daunting - lots of possible negative game scripts with Sammy extra motiavted to put up numbers. Hell, TyGod will need to put up numbers with his new deal (I see the Bills drafting a qb top 10 after we suck again this year) and who else will help him put up numbers other than Sammy and Shady out of the backfield?
I can't see the Bills winning more than 6 games after starting the season possibly 2-0. Injuries could break in our favor obviously but they haven't for 17 years, why would these breaks start now?
The 2nd surgery is scary (middle of January?). Is this typical with the type of injury Dez had (too lazy to look it up)? Is Sammy "injury prone" or has he had poor luck. According to @fantasymansion, the only player "injury prone" in the league is Jordan Reed.
Sammy has proven (2nd half of 2015) when healthy, can put up monster numbers (top 5?). He could be a steal in the 4th round or he could suck the life out of fantasy squads yet again in 2017.
Seems like this could be an intriguing topic as we wait for mini camps.
#2 By: Justin Winn, May 10th, 2017 02:47
I don't really buy the "contract year" theory, but he doesn't have much competition and is a proven producer. He should have a strong year and he's a probable buy. I think people are probably holding the fact that Buffalo didn't exercise his option against him, which makes no sense in dynasty. Heaven forbid he's the WR1 on some team that isn't as run-heavy as Buffalo.
#3 By: JLaps, May 10th, 2017 09:00
To be fair, I think the dynasty reaction to his option not being exercised isn't really about him possibly not being in Buffalo.
I think people are more concerned that a team who desperately needs WRs, and theoretically knows more about his health than anyone except Watkins himself, decided it wasn't prudent to exercise a team-friendly option year for a year down the road. Reading between the lines there, it can be inferred that the Bills think his health problems might never be fully "fixed" and that even a year from now he still won't be fully healthy. It's being perceived as a vote of no-confidence in his health.
Obviously there's no way to know for sure if that's really the reason they didn't exercise the option and it's basically reading tea-leaves, but chronic health issues torpedo dynasty value faster than underperformance. With Watkins' history, I don't think that fear is entirely misplaced.
#4 By: Hostage, May 10th, 2017 09:13
so what is group consensus on what it would take for Sammy owners to sell?
or, conversely, what would you offer to buy him?
he's definitely a target of mine too, hoping to buy him for 60 cents on the dollar, so what would that be? mid-late 1st? random 2018 1st? jimmy graham?
#5 By: Adam Eraky, May 10th, 2017 12:42
I'm considering offering my 1.05 rookie pick when it's on the clock for him, unless Corey Davis somehow falls that far (doubtful)
#6 By: bskoczylas, May 13th, 2017 09:41
The only option concern I have is Buffalo should have inside information regarding his surgeries and his health. Not picking up his option may be an indictment towards his health. I would hate to trade for damaged goods. If he's healthy Sammy has proven to be a top 10 wr in fantasy and is entering the famous 3rd year for wide receivers.
It would make sense for the new administration to center the entire offense around Shady, Watkins and Tyrod's mobility. I think all three should be heavy buys this year with the information at this point.