#1 By: RotoViz, September 12th, 2017 18:17
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2017/09/stealing-signals-week-2-afc/
Week 1 was a mess of information, and it’s hard to know what to apply and what is small sample noise. Here are the actionable notes for Week 2. Kansas City Chiefs Snap Notes: Chris Conley – 94%; Tyreek Hill – 72%; Albert Wilson – 58%; Kareem Hunt – 58%; Charcandrick West – 35% Key Stat: Kareem Hunt –…
#2 By: C.B., September 12th, 2017 20:48
First allow me to say this new series is one of my favorites on RV now. I try to steal signals myself, such as picking up Tarik Cohen & Charles Clay for free last week. Now I can kick my feet up with some week 1 wins under my belt already owning this week's top waiver pick. Damn that feels SO good.
100% agree with the James White analysis, and I wonder with Amendola out if we are going to see James White doing that Duke Johnson thing and playing primarily out of the slot. No doubt he will be catching more passes, and with the Pats defense looking so poor I wonder about every Pats game being a shootout therefore White being highly involved. I'm loaded up on Cooks, Hogan & White with a little Burkhead sprinkled in. Angry Brady + Cooks revenge game = Fireworks. Happy to see both Cooks & Hogan ranking in the air yards, big things to come and I intend to cash in on those points without recency bias of the poor week 1 showings.
1) NOISE: Charles Clay’s 32 percent target share
Not sure why you consider this noise, granted it's not a high powered offense but Clay's target's weren't a fluke. I picked up on chatter the last week about Clay's important role in an offense without many / too new weapons + involvement in preseason. I played Clay across DFS & rosters that had a late round TE/streamer. And look now, he's STILL a minimum cost option in DK Week 2.
2) RBs w/ Most Routes Run From WR Position (W1) 1. Matt Forte (11) 2. Ty Montgomery (7) 3. B. Powell, C. Thompson, David Johnson, J/ White (6)
Where is Duke Johnson in this figure, running slot for the Browns full time and his W1 league-high 87 air yards?
Stealing Signals on Duke:
ESPN's Fantasy folks analyzed his day and found that Johnson was in the slot on 42 snaps, at left receiver once, right receiver twice and (tecnhically) at tight end twice. He did not once line up in the backfield the way a running back traditionally would, per the fantasy game review.
"That was that plan for that game, and it will change as we go. [Duke] is a very valuable member of our offensive football team in both phases -- in the pass game and the run game," --Hue Jackson.
In the loss, Johnson tied for the second-most targets on the team with five passes thrown his way. He had two receptions for 20 yards. However, two of the three times passes not completed to him were big-play opportunities that were missed.
Signal: Duke's heavy involvement in the passing game paired with 2 missed big plays.
Noise: Jackson talking down veteran Britt
#3 By: Regression From the Mean, September 13th, 2017 08:39
Agree with everything you said except Jackson talking down Britt. Yes that was a very bad drop, and that is what he was reacting to, but I watched that game and despite the small sample size I really think that Corey Coleman is going to be the primary beneficiary of the vacated Pryor targets. He was the guy Kizer was looking for most often. At best, Britt is going to split that vacated volume with Coleman, not take the lion's share of it IMO.
#4 By: C.B., September 13th, 2017 12:28
Agree with your assessment of Coleman which is why I took him over Britt everywhere I could! The noise for me on that is even though I found Jackson's comments disrespectful to the vet, I think they were meant to serve as motivation. I don't think the Browns will actually bench Britt like Hue threatened to do in his presser.
I don't know why I love the Browns so much, maybe because they are using moneyball metrics and I see them making smart decisions in the draft & free agency? Maybe because they are the youngest team in the NFL? I feel like they will be good, really good... some day.
#5 By: Shawn Siegele , September 13th, 2017 12:39
Fantastic article from Ben.
I think the Browns WR situation is interesting. I was drafting both Coleman and Britt heavily since their prices were so discounted to the likely target volume, both in terms of market share and in terms of air yards. Unless Ricardo Louis, Kasen Williams, Sammie Coates, or David Njoku really takes a big step forward (which is possible), then Britt should come back with some strong performances. My biggest takeaway from CLE was that the rookie QB wasn't completely overwhelmed. That's an excellent sign for both Coleman and Britt going forward.
#6 By: Regression From the Mean, September 13th, 2017 13:58
@FF_Contrarian given the CLE offense, aren't we really hoping for one or the other to really take the lion's share of targets (unless best ball of course)? Otherwise I have a hard time seeing that offense support two WRs that are either regularly scoring enough to start or allow us to know when to favor one over the other. I'd guess you didn't plan on keeping both players on season-long rosters, but at some point drop the lesser one and use that roster spot for something else, right?
#7 By: Shawn Siegele , September 13th, 2017 14:30
Last year both Pryor and Coleman were startable from a volume perspective. From @friscojosh and airyards.
To put that in perspective, Pryor was 10th in target share and 8th in weighted opportunity rating.
Meanwhile, Coleman and Britt were tied for 19th in weighted opportunity.
If you have two players who were in the No. 20 range in opportunity, and you have a top-10 player departing, then there should be plenty of opportunity remaining for both players (absent a breakout from another player, scheme change, etc.). The concern is efficiency, where Pryor and Coleman were both inefficient last year, converting air yards at RACRs of 0.50 and 0.40 respectively. Despite playing in an even worse offense, Britt converted at 0.78. (That's generally why we've been enthusiastic about Britt here at RotoViz. He was incredibly impressive last year given the context, and he was a collegiate and early career star before injuries derailed him.)
I drafted Coleman as a breakout player, assuming there was a strong likelihood of an efficiency jump coupled with a volume jump, and Britt as a veteran value, assuming he would maintain some of his efficiency and compete for the vacated volume.
If one of the two player emerges as a WR2, then drafting them both worked, but the scenario where one is a WR2 and the other a WR3 is realistic if Kizer plays well. (One of the reasons tools like the Projection Machine are so valuable is that it gives a feel for how different teams run their offenses. Some offenses - like Denver - support two WRs at high volume, while others - like NO - tend to have a pretty low volume ceiling even for the No. 1. I like CLE as a two-WR offense from a volume perspective, although it's possible it could be a zero-WR offense from an efficiency perspective [like 2016 Jacksonville]. That's one of the reasons Week 1 was mildly encouraging.)
All of that said, Britt's Week 1 performance was certainly disappointing.
#8 By: Dennis, September 13th, 2017 14:37
i scooped britt on 2 squads mostly cuz of Doc's optimism all summer. i think i even reached on him in the 7th once which i regret. now im tempted to hold and see based on his ability and this persuasive "hold" argument. but are any of these guys on waivers no brainers over britt: Amendola, hurns, shepard, agholor? (for .5ppr)
i generally like to follow advice you've given to hold the best 6 WRs I can, tho im hurting at RB an could also simply hold a carson, forte, Mack, ivory, breida and see if maybe Britt is still available later- thoughts?
#9 By: Shawn Siegele , September 13th, 2017 14:48
I don't think any of those guys are no-brainers, although you could certainly make a case for Agholor. (I expect the target competition from Jeffery, Ertz, and Smith will limit him, but Week 1 looked bad for Jeffery.)
As far as holding the RBs, the sentiment in general is always so anti-Britt that dropping him and picking him up later is viable option in a lot of leagues (certainly 16-roster spot leagues).
Another quick note on volume since it's complicated a little by Coleman missing a chunk of last season.
While this seems like a big issue at first glance, the target volume was different but still paced for 131 Pryor targets when Coleman played. It's fluky that Pryor was so much more efficient when Coleman was absent.
Another interesting split.
Pryor caught a lot more TDs and was targeted more often, but was surprisingly less efficient from a yardage perspective against weaker defenses.
#10 By: Allan Basso, September 13th, 2017 15:28
I'm late to the party but I have to agree that it is a fantastic article and one of the best in-season series on RV.
#11 By: Regression From the Mean, September 13th, 2017 15:54
Interesting. Really appreciate you walking through using @friscojosh's airyards app and the splits app in your evaluation. I also agree that it's a realistic possibility to pick up Britt again in a few games if whoever you drop him for doesn't end up being a keeper. I just dropped him for Golladay in one league, and at first I had some heartburn about it, but I didn't want to carry 7 WRs and need the roster spots to sift through the RB chaff
#12 By: dkpsports, September 14th, 2017 13:52
Thanks for pointing out the Tyler Ervin situation, seems very under the radar, but he's basically being used like Duke Johnson, or Tarik Cohen it seems.
I know Rotoviz was high on him last year. He also will have a rookie noodle-armed QB who may check down a lot, and I've heard they lost all their TEs.
Thoughts on his potential? I'm actually thinking he has a higher floor than D'onta Foreman, and is an arbitrage Duke Johnson/Tarik Cohen with good upside.
Am I reading too much into it?
#13 By: William Russell, September 20th, 2017 06:14
I've been pondering the same thing, although I have just picked up Foreman to fill an RB gap vacated by trading away Dion Lewis. The increased snaps for Foreman, plus the increased 1st quarter work and ineffectiveness of Miller thus far swung it in Foreman's favour. Wondering if I should also add Ervin as a handcuff/trade bait for future weeks.