#1 By: Patrick Waterman, August 11th, 2017 09:49
I'm in a .5 PPR league starting 2 RB, 2 WR, and 1 flex, with only 6 bench spots. This is an AUCTION league, so the strategies are limitless. Since this only starts 3 WR's at max and is .5 PPR, zero RB is not as powerful as other formats.
With the love Rotoviz is showing for cheaper WR's like Garcon, Britt, Tyrell Williams, Robert Woods, and Diggs, am I crazy to want to try and get 4-5 of the top 15 RB's, and roll with a WR cast of the above? I am still considering going zero RB (but a slightly toned down approach). Would love some input on how others would attach this format.
#2 By: hrr5010, August 11th, 2017 11:05
Hi @Patwtweets. In my opinion, you don't have to go robust RB here.
The select few top RBs might go for an absurdly high valuation, and you might be better served spending that money on a few top end WRs. (Depending on how savvy your league is, Britt could be had quite cheaply!)
People have weird blind spots when it comes to RBs and it's especially true in auctions. For example how do others value several unsexy RBs such as Ware, JStew, Rob Kelley, Forte etc?
Also Dave Caban has done tremendous work on auction drafts.
1) http://rotoviz.com/2016/08/supply-demand-and-auction-drafts/?hvid=519jJv2) http://rotoviz.com/2016/08/a-tier-based-approach-to-fantasy-auction-drafting/
#3 By: Patrick Waterman, August 11th, 2017 11:14
Thanks, I've read one of the articles you mentioned, but must have missed the other one - i'll take a look.
It seems like a better approach would be to use Zero RB, but tone it back. Perhaps grab 2-3 of the top WR's and maybe an elite TE, a bunch of "un-sexy" RB's in the $3-5 range, and then fill in with a few high floor WR's (garcon, britt, etc).
#4 By: hrr5010, August 11th, 2017 12:14
Right! That's a good way to look at it. You don't want to marry yourself to a strategy in auction drafts in my opinion. Auction values are constantly in flux. So there's a chance that the pricing on several elite RBs is soft.
Real example: I finished an auction where TyMont went for more $ than Shady. Sometimes the scarcity at the position ends up with owners panicking and grabbing guys who are at the end of a "tier". (This is a live league and not a mock.)
Additionally, the enthusiasm around RBs this season has led to depressing the value of "questionable" WR's. There's a fairly good chance that you end up with guys like Sanders for below his perceived value. So you don't want to end up in a situation where you have too much money left over and you're overspending on scrub WRs.
#5 By: devinmci, August 13th, 2017 01:19
With only 5 RB/WR starters, I think you want to have elite guys at both positions. Those WRs you mentioned are liked by RV generally, but again, especially in PPR because of the floor their volume of targets provides as team WR1s. But the composite staff projections have Britt, Tyrell, Woods all below 1,000 yards and all four guys below 6 TDs.
I think a good construction could take advantage of ZRB principles by putting most of your capital in two high TD potential WRs, and then build depth at RB through the middle and then get a cheap WR3 like Britt.
Jordy - 48
Dez - 32
Britt - 10
Ajayi - 40
Ware - 22
Abdullah - 14
Kelley - 9
QB - 1
TE - 1
Bench - 1
Bench - 1
Bench - 1
#6 By: Patrick Waterman, August 14th, 2017 11:39
Thanks for the input-- its a good point that you really want more elite guys with less starters. I do like that team you listed, though i can't help but think it might be better to start Ingram instead of Ajayi, and put the 40 from Ajayi into someone like Amari Cooper to start as flex.
I think i'm leaning towards a zero RB approach that focuses a bit more into the RB position than a typical zero RB approach (maybe $30 instead of $10-15)
#7 By: devinmci, August 14th, 2017 15:48
The issue is that you only have to start 2 WRs, so some teams will load up on RB, because you need depth to win, and just have Rishard Matthews or Tyler Lockett or Cole Beasley as their WR2--basically free guys.
Because it's auction, you won't know if you can get Ingram for cheap. The top 24 RBs might all be very very expensive. And then if you didn't buy a RB1, you'll be screwed, because your money is gone, and there are all these cheap WRs, but you are starting Perine and Terrence West.
So, the reason I advocate getting Demarco or Ajayi is that your still paying less for RB1 than half the league, but you are also getting one of the very few guys that could truly dominate snaps. Murray was regularly getting 95% snaps, which is insane. After the drop off of the elite group, you can usually get these guys at a fair price. Then you have one RB locked in, and have flexibility to just punt RB all the way down to Shane Vereen if you like, or if there are values, you take them. Otherwise you are at risk of having to pay $30+ dollars for Ingram, and you wish you'd bought an elite guy instead.
But if you're really set on just not putting capital into RB at all, then yeah, I would get three truly elite WRs, and then just look for any fair priced RB in the RB20-30 range. Like I'd try to buy OBJ, Julio, Thomas for $160 or something, and not let any other teams dominate from WR and have to compete over RBs.
#8 By: hrr5010, August 14th, 2017 16:09
@devinmci nails it. By starting only 2WR as opposed to 3, there isn't enough scarcity at the WR slot. Even if you're buying AB, OBJ, Julio for 90% of your budget, others will surely be able to float by with other top-36 WRs.
The RB cliff is steep, and by willingly paying up for an "undervalued" starting RB set to dominate the snap share early in the season, you can "punt" the second RB slot. Although, given the auction format, I'd recommend not fully fading the second RB slot. If someone like Spencer Ware is available for less than your budget, you'd be sitting pretty with two starting RBs + 2 elite WRs.
#9 By: Patrick Waterman, August 15th, 2017 11:55
Thanks for the responses. My plan will now be to target a couple of elite WR's, and then maybe a backend RB1 with a clear starter role, but may be a bit cheaper -- guys like Crowell, Lamar Miller, Dalvin Cook, Gurley. I'll then probably fill in with a few other starting RB's that are cheaper (west, fat rob, ware, blount), and then some high floor WR's (britt, garcon, cobb, maclin, edelman) and some cheaper zero RB flyers.
I think my biggest decision at this point is whether to grab 2 truly elite WRs (Julio/odell/AB) for about $60 each, or grab 3 different $30-50 WR's to lock down the flex - Jordy, Evans, AJ, Amari, Demaryius, Dez, Hopkins, Baldwin, Hilton.
#10 By: hrr5010, August 15th, 2017 12:21
Hmmm... I fear guys like Crowell and Gurley are over valued by the larger public. Crowell has a secure workload, but given that scarcity drives auction value, I think some GM will overpay a bit for him. I think guys like lesean McCoy and Jordan Howard could be had for a similar-ish price as Miller/Crowell (depending on your league mates' tendencies).
Since you're only starting 2WR, I'd try and pair AB/Julio/OBJ with two of the guys you mentioned. I would say that AJ should be a guy to target. It's not outside the realm of possibility that he sells for less than Evans.
Alternatively, don't be afraid to go for other WR's who would help in this format. Guys like Sanders and Crabtree seem to always get lost in the shuffle of auction drafts because they're unsexy names. These guys could help save you a few bucks in the auction process.
#11 By: Patrick Waterman, August 15th, 2017 12:54
Agree on crowell/gurley. Seems like it might make sense to go for a middle RB1 (lesean, jordan howard). I may end up nominating someone like crowell early on to see where we sit with the back end RB1/high end RB2 value.
we can start up to 3 WR's because of the flex-- given that, would you still target AB/Julio/OBJ with 2 of the $30-50 guys?
thanks for all the help/discussion, it's helping me
#12 By: hrr5010, August 15th, 2017 13:50
It's my pleasure. I like chatting auction because of the fluid dynamic of the draft. If you nominate Crowell early, hopefully your fellow GM's overpay.
I'd still target AB/OBJ/Julio but won't be too bummed if I have to pivot to AJG/Evans as well. To fit 3 of the $60 tier and one of the $30-$50 tier, you will be spending a lot of your budget. It could prevent you from successfully getting a high end rb2/ low end Rb1
I would caution approaching with a true "stars and scrubs" approach as that could devestate your team if one high priced guy got hurt.
#13 By: craig, August 15th, 2017 14:33
I am in 2 similar auction leagues and I will be going ZeroRB in both. I wouldn't worry about the top 24 RB's getting picked, as that is part of the point of ZeroRB. The RB's you buy will be cheaper and you can pour your money into less fragile roles. Your roster will become stronger as those more expensive options fail or get injured. A draft is always fluid, but I will be allocating $160 to WR's, $10 to QB/TE/K/D and $30 to RB. Don't be afraid to pass on those RB's...that's part of going ZeroRB.