#1 By: Shawn Siegele , October 1st, 2018 19:18
The people have spoken. A lot of requests to keep the name.
In this week's edition we see Kamara challenging history, Elliott inadvertently taunting Bryant, and some luck in RB starts.
We also learn that you should listen to @hrr5010 (something we, frankly, knew already).
What do you guys think this week's biggest development was?
#2 By: Matt, October 2nd, 2018 10:25
Dynasty question. How would you rank these rookie WR? Tre'Quan Smith, Antonio Callaway, Keke Coutee. And where would Ito Smith fit into those rankings?
I'm curious to see what New England's offense looks like the rest of the season in terms of pass volume and where the targets will go. Hogan has been a massive disappointment and Gronk hasn't done much outside of week 1. I'd guess that outside of Sony and White, owning NE offensive players thus far has been disappointing, and I'm not sure that's going to change going forward. I really regret drafting Hogan and not drafting any Rams WR: I wasn't sure where the targets were going but it looks like that offense can support all 3 WR most weeks.
I'm not sure if this is a trend or it has to do with just my perception, but it seems like the gulf between innovative and stagnant offenses has never been greater. I traded Russell Wilson last week for Big Ben because Brian Schottenheimer kills Wilson's fantasy (and real life) production. It's probably always been this way to some extent, but drafting players on innovative offenses (Rams, KC, Philly [once they get healthy]) seems more important than evaluating talent (see David Johnson, Russell Wilson). I guess what I'm saying is that fantasy scoring seems more concentrated than ever. I've completely faded Seattle, Dallas (I don't have zeke), Buffalo, Arizona, NYJ (dropped Robby but have some Enunwa on my bench). I feel like I'm rambling and not making a convincing argument,
so here's a tweet from Ben Gretch:
We talk a lot about regression, and long-time football fans know why.
But there have also been a lot of observations about the widening gap of forward-thinking offenses and everyone else. Starting to wonder if that gap creates an atmosphere for some historical stuff this season.
#3 By: Shawn Siegele , October 2nd, 2018 12:07
In dynasty I would still prefer Tre'Quan and then Callaway and Coutee are close, but I'd probably give the edge to Coutee. Ito would be after them for me, since RB depends a lot more on how coaches allocate snaps and an RB can be much more easily blocked by a single player. (In redraft I would move Ito up and Tre'Quan way down.)
Preseason, one of the biggest mistakes drafters make - and I think experts are worse on this than normal players - is to draft with concerns about how target volume will break down as opposed to drafting based on talent. This is where things like The Wrong Read are really helpful. Knowing how age- and experienced-adjusted production give you insight as to a player's true talent level is crucial in winning fantasy drafts.
High stakes players were much more aggressive on guys like JuJu and Kupp than experts. (Experts are far too conservative with second-year players in general, even though the evidence is right there and we wrote extensively about it all summer; this is one area where I think RotoViz provides a big advantage.) At the receiver position, good players will carve out target share even with competition, and lesser players can struggle even when it's there.
(That's not necessarily to say that Hogan was a bad pick. I liked him in Round 7, as his production/opportunity profile was certainly enticing. He suffered from a surprisingly poor passing offense, which was possible with such limited overall talent, but still unexpected.)
I agree whole-heartedly with Ben's statement. That's one of the reasons I was recommending players like Kamara and McCaffrey before the season. It's valuable to be aware of both elements, that things like extreme efficiency and crazy volume are likely to snap back, but also that situations do change - sometimes due to innovation, sometimes due to other factors - and that by the time many analysts will be willing to give something credence, it's already far too late to take advantage of it.
For me, most of this goes back to draft structure and the realization that there's a lot to be gained from embracing the elements of uncertainty that can provide an advantage. This is one of the big reasons that contingency-based drafting provides such a strong advantage over the types of drafting that focus on fragile projections (which are widely available, provide very marginal advantages, and still predict the future very poorly).
#4 By: Adam Eraky, October 2nd, 2018 12:34
I've lined up a bid for Zach Pascal, and I'm about to spend $40 of my remaining $47 FAAB bucks (out of $100 total) on him. It's fairly deep league (12 teams, 25 roster spots & 4 TS spots for rookies), but is that too much to spend week 5? Leaves me with $7 the rest of the year..
#5 By: Shawn Siegele , October 2nd, 2018 13:09
If you have essentially 29 roster spots, I think that kind of bid makes sense. It depends a lot on your personal preferences for how to construct rosters and how to attack waivers. Pascal could disappear again next week and be gone for good, but I wanted to pick him out since he's someone Jon Moore and I discussed several years ago as a player with an interesting resume.
Getting down to $7 isn't that big of a deal unless you have to churn defense/kicker and don't have FCFS after regular waivers.
#6 By: Adam Eraky, October 2nd, 2018 13:28
We do have FCFS after waivers, so picking up a defense/kicker on bye weeks shouldn't be a huge concern.
Thanks, just wanted a gut check to make sure I'm not off in left field.
#7 By: Progression From the Mean, October 2nd, 2018 15:08
wow... 40% on Pascal?? That seems really steep to me, but can you give some examples of pickup prices the past few weeks?
#8 By: Adam Eraky, October 2nd, 2018 15:20
CJ Beathard went for $15
Darren Sproles went for $15
Anthony Sherman went for $35
Bruce Elington went for $20
Antonio Gates went for $11
The rest were $1-3 for kickers & defenses for the most part. There really isn't a lot on the wire.
#9 By: devinmci, October 2nd, 2018 15:43
Salty and sweet, loaded with dough, & a saccharine facade of canned Americana, this sundae shall be known as . . . the Cherry Jones.
#10 By: Progression From the Mean, October 2nd, 2018 17:05
Then sure why not? Not like there is gonna be much else to spend your $ on later in the season right?
#11 By: Adam Eraky, October 2nd, 2018 17:16
Yea. That is what I'm thinking as well.
#12 By: Dennis, October 2nd, 2018 23:21
Hasan is very smart, he knows stuff and has a good sense of humor. great addition to this community. i like the name the 15 also
#13 By: Husky8585, October 2nd, 2018 23:56
Shawn's last paragraph is gold and cannot be emphasized enough.