#1 By: William Russell, November 1st, 2018 08:34
Just read @BRB_3 excellent BLR. I'm very interested in the Gronk part. A writer on a rival site has mentioned that he looks 'toast' a couple of times recently and I'm trying to see if this is in any way evidence-based. I suspect not.
Trying to acquire him in my PPR keeper league from his present owner, a friend who I know rates him highly and who asked my advice before trading away Zeke for him and Golladay earlier this season. Ben, from the stats you cite in the piece, am I right in focusing on the volume issue in NE as being the reason he should give up on Gronk? I know you said that the crowded WR core isn't the reason for Gronk's volume decrease, but trying to think of the right angle to play up here.
In terms of trade options, he has Jimmy Graham, so doesn't need another TE especially. I have an abundance of Zero RB type backs and some good WRs. I wonder if offering a 2for1 combo of Nick Chubb/Chris Thompson/Ito Smith & Funchess/Watkins/Courtland Sutton could get this done?
#2 By: hrr5010, November 1st, 2018 09:26
A little more nuance for Gronk is necessary because he's always a threat for retirement. So in a keeper league, that should factor in as part of the calculus. I'd definitely be trying to move Chris Thompson for him, but Thompson's been poor this season. Gronk's had 3 TE1 games this season FWIW, so the entire "looks" thing is kinda tough to tell.
You need targets to produce. in games vs. bad offenses, the patriots have 0 incentive to risk injury to their best receiver since they're a Super Bowl hopeful team.
Try offering CT + Watkins. See if this works out. I'd rather hold Chubb because his keeper price is probably fairly valuable relative to his role next season. And Sutton.. the guys ascended to WR2 status. His keeper price might also be very solid relative to Gronk's (who you might not be keeping anyway, if he retires)
#3 By: William Russell, November 6th, 2018 10:53
@hrr5010 Thanks for the response. Am now negotiating with the Gronk owner who needs RBs desperately.
For extra context, you can't keep anyone drafted in RDs 1-3, so Gronk is not keepable anyway. He is not a fan of Sammy after getting burned last yr (he traded for him, then traded him away to me just as he started scoring TDs!)
Agree I should try to keep Chubb for 2019. What about Sony Michel straight up? I wouldn't normally want to lose a Pats RB but with Cook coming back from injury, Chubb, Thompson, Ito Smith & Cannon (likely about to be dropped for Adams) I may be ok at RB.
Or should I try to package Smith/Thompson + Funchess (whose targets seem under threat)
#4 By: Ben_Battle3, November 6th, 2018 11:13
Sorry, sometimes I have trouble seeing when I'm tagged in stuff. Very much appreciate the question and sorry for the delayed response. In the future just aggressively tag me again if it's taking me forever to get back to you, or hit me up on twitter.
The efficiency metrics I posted suggest Gronk is just as good as he always has been. Not sure how people make the agument that Gronk has "lost a step" or "washed" when on a per target basis he is as strong as ever. Makes no sense to me, and seems like a clear opportunity to use numbers over a subjective eye test. Classic matchup of data versus subjectivity, really.
The 2 concerns with Gronk are volume and health. Both are very real concerns, health being the bigger one.
Gronk's value will spike once his TDR regresses to his norm, even if his volume stays below his norm. His per target efficiency suggests it's pure variance that has stopped his TDR from being at its usual godly level.
His back is a real concern, which I cannot evaluate myself. It puts more risk into buying him, but also can help you lower his price.
#5 By: hrr5010, November 6th, 2018 11:40
I'd genuinely much rather have the RBs (both Chubb & Michel) over Gronk ROS. It looks like Gronk is probably going to sit till the bye week, and Michel is more likely to play this week. Besides, RBs with guaranteed touches > TEs for me. You should send Michel for Gronk + another good player, but you should try packaging Smith + Thompson and see if it gets the job done. You gotta play the panic of the Gronk owner on this one.
#6 By: devinmci, November 6th, 2018 16:16
@Will Michel for Gronk straight up is a good offer, but Michel is likely to be the more valuable piece in a vacuum. Still, Gronk is a great backup for Graham, so I'd be unlikely to trade him a way for spare parts (like Ito+Thompson or whatever). If his lineup is thin enough that he'd start, say Ito and Sutton, that would be a fair offer. But Michel is probably that piece that would get it done.
I agree with Ben that it's the lack of TDs that makes Gronk look so bad right now. His old volume is never coming back, but with Edelman and Gordon in the mix now, it will probably open up a few more looks for Gronk in the RZ. I don't know if anyone has closely studied the RZ defenses against the Patriots, but my guess is that teams aggressively took away Gronk early in the season, and forced Dorsett/Hogan/White to beat them.
Gronk has rarely gone 3-4 games without hitting 9 targets in his career, and he hasn't hit that mark yet this season. He should probably be viewed similarly to Jimmy Graham, but on a slightly higher volume offense. But also as a risk to sit any given game, and a good regular season shutdown candidate. Gronk looks like he can still make many of the plays he used to make--he can just barely get back up off the ground afterwards.
#7 By: William Russell, November 7th, 2018 12:20
@devinmci @hrr5010 @BRB_3 thanks very much for the input, guys. I realised I have a bit of an unforeseen Gronk-plication, which is the Pats sharing a wk 11 bye with Njoku and the Browns. This wouldn't stop me trying to get Gronk, but it would be a factor in who I can offer, as Sony & Chubb will be on bye too next wk. Also our trade deadline is this wknd...
I'll have Dalvin Cook, Ito Smith and Thompson (plus Ware who I've future-stashed) available at RB. If I did get Gronk I would then need a third TE (urgh) on my roster for next wk. This would likely be be one of Seals-Jones, Davis or Vannett.
I'm considering trying to get Burton instead. He's available, but the guy trading is in 1st place and I don't want to add pieces to a roster already containing Brees, M. Thomas, Zeke, Hunt, Gordon & Ertz (I know, yikes). He could use an RB, as currently flexing Jalen Richard or McGuire.
Would any of you feel safe offering him Thompson or Ito straight up for Burton? I could also try Ware as his Hunt handcuff insurance...
#8 By: hrr5010, November 7th, 2018 14:41
I'd absolutely be trying to buy Burton low. He's not starting Burton over Ertz, unless Ertz is hurt. Try offering Thompson + Ware? maybe that's enough to budge the needle....
#9 By: William Russell, November 7th, 2018 15:16
Agree it's worth trying to buy low on Burton. He hasn't played him all year. Is this worth pursuing for me?
Can't figure out if Burton offers much above just streaming RSJ (v Raiders wk 11) or another TE off waivers to cover Njoku's bye. And will he be startable ROS?
#10 By: hrr5010, November 7th, 2018 15:27
Burton? Probably. IT's been a huge bummer seeing Njoku's target share take a hit, since I've been rolling with him as my lone TE option in multiple leagues. If he won't go for it, i wouldn't bother pushing since RSJ vs. OAK is just as sweet. actually... that's an eagle eye. I'm gonna see if RSJ is on waivers in a few leagues that run waivers tonight.
#11 By: Trevor.Moran, November 7th, 2018 15:47
I'm trying to get Lindsay after the post, what type of player would be best for a fair exchange? He wants a WR. But I was think of giving him keryon and a WR
#12 By: William Russell, November 7th, 2018 17:03
@IITrollface that feels a bit rich. Kerryon and Lindsay are similar in my eyes. Lindsay has the nice playoff schedule ofc.
To give you an idea of value, I used Lindsay + Amari to land Dalvin Cook when he had the bad hammy. I'd do it straight up but not plus a WR unless they were really disposable to you.
#13 By: William Russell, November 7th, 2018 17:05
@hrr5010 He's countered with Burton for Boyd. Or Allen for Burton and Marvin or Dede. Really?
I think I'd rather roll with RSJ next wk than deal with such stupid offers. To give the due credit, Jake Ciely at the Athletic was the one who noted they play the Raiders wk 11. Annoying that I might need to drop Ware to get him though. I want to have him stashed for the playoffs (and to deny the same Hunt owner the pleasure!)
#14 By: hrr5010, November 7th, 2018 19:03
yeah. you're fine without worrying about any of that noise. hahahahah my goodness.
That's a great catch by Jake! I think one of my bigger flaws is not utilizing our shiny new Fantasy Streaming App enough, particularly at the TE spot. I have been using the Buy Low, but haven't looked into it yet.
And as always, I can't wait to get into the Week 9 stat explorer @dcaban provides.
#15 By: hrr5010, November 7th, 2018 19:08
Fantasy Streaming App... its a fan!
And the Stat Explorer likes RSJ's playoff schedule. Someone tell @FFComedyHr_Pete and @pkerrane to not drop RSJ in the Main Event!