#1 By: RotoViz, October 11th, 2017 11:07
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2017/10/the-buy-low-report-week-6/
A rash of injuries to players like Odell Beckham offered a harsh reminder of the brutality of the NFL. Bye weeks are currently in full swing, and the waiver wire pickings are looking slim. Let’s try and find some assets that are mispriced. Welcome to the Week 6 Buy Low Report. “One day my lady Selma’s going to have a…
#2 By: Dennis, October 11th, 2017 11:23
Great stuff i was just thinking about Landry! Im with you and do see him as a buy low tho im trying to determine his ROS and playoff value. someone expressed interest in Landry and Duke johnson for Davante Adams in .5ppr would u do that?
What about D-Hop, Duke, Landry, ASJ for A. brown, j Reed, d. adams?
landry has the better upcoming tho adams is starting to appear matchup proof with Jordy and Cobb staying beat up and sneakily being Aaron's favorite guy lately, no?
(this is the team i took your advice and traded Hunt pre-week 1 for D-Hop, Duke, and Tyrell. (looks almost even now)
my other rbs are aaron jones, mark ingram, derek henry, c. ivory
#3 By: DR, October 11th, 2017 12:05
Looking at the Fitz conditional Sell, would you advocate selling High on Fitz and Buying low on Baldwin? The juicy matchup vs TB makes me hesitate to do it now, but waiting could be worse if Baldwin starts to look great again
#4 By: DR, October 11th, 2017 12:19
D-Hop + Landry side wins; so i'd say stay with what you gotz
#5 By: Jason Humes, October 11th, 2017 12:30
Picked up McGuire on waivers cause I have Powell... I'm good with the spot start this week vs. the Pats but am not sure what to do once Powell gets healthy...don't want to be stuck with 2 RBs in a committee.
Do you think if McGuire has a good week he can become defacto #1?
Will return of either/both Powell, Forte make this a complete mess that I don't want any part of?
#6 By: Dennis, October 11th, 2017 12:36
yeah ok thanks. what about the Jarvis and Duke for Adams version?
Id absoutely do fitz out doug b in. id even kick in filler to get that one. with the groin injury the slow start etc. now's the time.
#7 By: Dennis, October 11th, 2017 12:37
yeah don't forget about forte. if u think u can win without elijah id even look to trade the duo now if u can. it's like seattle now. even if u hold those two what if they go back to forte as starter? no thx
#8 By: hrr5010, October 11th, 2017 13:09
I agree with @DR_B here. I'm kind of glad that moving Hunt for your haul worked out, because my sell Kareem Hunt call is smacking me in the face. On the plus side, Hopkins is the entrenched WR1 and is getting crazy volume. A possible finish as a top-5 WR is well within his range of outcomes.
Adams himself is coming off an ultra scary injury. Mad props to the kid for coming back and killing it last week. His WOPR and target share is similar to Jordy's. However, Cobb isn't too far behind. All three of them split the targets currently.
Thing that's boosted Adams's fantasy production are his TD's. He's already caught 4 TD's through 5 weeks and he's a third of the way to his TD total from last season. But I wonder how the target share splits out when TyMo returns and if Aaron Jones stays hot.
Landry is unsexy but even in 0.5 PPR he's worth it. He's a target hot and is amazing at converting targets into catches. With the volume that he sees, he's still converting a lot of them into FF points. Plus, because he's such an unsexy name you're not getting the kind of return you're looking for.
@DR_B I would absolutely try and buy Doug. If he's available for Fitz straight up, it's well worth the swap.
@jasonhumes I'm not quite certain about the defacto #1. The Jets seemed hesitant to make Powell the bellcow when healthy (explains his split with McGuire two weeks ago) so it's likely this trends into a split between the two. I'm not sure what's happening with Forte and it seems his return his far off. On the bright side, it looks like NYJ has a strong schedule for RB's. I'd say take it week by week. We are unsure of Powell's return timeline/usage.
#9 By: DR, October 11th, 2017 13:21
I tried moving Landry for Doug B, so i'm going to offer a choice of Fitz/Garcon/Landry + Tarik for Baldwin. Any recommendation on the rankings ROS between Fitz/Garcon/Landry/Baldwin?
#10 By: hrr5010, October 11th, 2017 13:26
TBH, your guess is as good as mine for ROS value. SF also have a sneaky brutal schedule Week 10 on. But I'd say enjoy Fitz's/Garcon's production for now if your opponent won't be looking to move Doug.
Landry probably has the most value if you're in a PPR league though.
Fitz craters towards the end of the season, but he's used a lot like a TE. So he might have value going forward. Maybe try with Garcon + Cohen and be willing to move up to Fitz + Cohen
#11 By: Dennis, October 11th, 2017 13:32
id prob go Doug landry fitz garcon there....doug has a ruff playoff schedule so his edge over landry is tricky to determine but id take the risk there. the other two are easier for me id do it altho the buy low machine says SF has the 9th best fantasy playoff schedule
#12 By: Adam Eraky, October 11th, 2017 14:04
What is everyone doing with Hyde & TyMo? They are both on my roster, and both are starting to make me nervous.
I mean, TyMo has been pretty inefficient, and Aaron Jones just came in and destroyed the Cowboys. May lose his massive volume.
Ditto Hyde, who may have fallen into a timeshare with Breida.
#13 By: Dennis, October 11th, 2017 14:06
i think Hyde's is because of his hip. he always gets hurt so that may not improve. but if it did....assume hed regain some volume. Aaron jones looked like the better runner than tymo so itd take some pete carrol like committment to ignore that and just hand the reigns back to tymo. id assume a legit split there and possibly worse if they want a real wait and see approach with tymo's ribs seeing that AJ33 can handle the load
#14 By: Jason Humes, October 12th, 2017 08:57
Just caught this article on Powell... doesn't sound good.
Do you think Powell should be dropped next week if McGuire plays well and Forte gets back soon?
Jets coach Todd Bowles said Bilal Powell’s status is up in the air, and the running back did not practice Thursday.
That assessment is perhaps putting off the inevitable for this week.
Going back and looking at the video of a catch at the end of the first half last week against the Browns, it appears Powell suffered a significant calf strain. He limped off flat-footed and did not contract his calf muscle or push off on the ball of his right foot.
Powell is fortunate it was not an Achilles tendon injury and, thus, has avoided surgery.
Still, the problem is that calf injuries tend to linger, especially for explosive athletes. A running back needs a healthy calf to run on his toes and plant and cut.
Many remember how limited Aaron Rodgers was at quarterback with his strained calf during a playoff run. The Packers QB was clearly hobbled, unable to scramble. If he was a running back, he would not have played.
Given the severity indicated on video, I would anticipate Powell does not practice this week and anticipate he will be ruled out for at least Sunday’s game against the Patriots. It could easily be several weeks before he returns, and it could be December before Powell puts this behind him
#15 By: hrr5010, October 12th, 2017 14:21
Several ways to go with this, but the best answer I've got at this moment is: It depends.
Not a great solution, so here are the several things to look at while making this decision:
1) What's your record? If you're 4-1 or 5-0, go ahead and drop him for a higher upside play.
2) How does the rest of your roster look? I.E - assuming if Powell is fully healthy, are you slotting him in as an every week no brainer play?
3) Scoring format?
#17 By: Jason Humes, October 12th, 2017 14:56
hanks for the reply! should've added those things you mentioned.
My record is 4-1 (full PPR 12 teamer) although I have Shady/AJG on bye this week and will probably lose.
My RBs are:
I have both Powell and McGuire and would alternate between ellington/riddick/powell based on matchups for my RB2.
Vereen and Prosise are available and I'm seriously considering dropping Moncrief for Vereen...
#18 By: hrr5010, October 13th, 2017 10:59
Great record. I'd actually be looking a bit to the "for the playoffs" section that I'm adding for ideas about what to kick around.
Powell in this scenario is unplayable IMO unless you need a bye week guy. I'd prefer to go for upside in the longer term. @BenGretch pointed out the league winning upside that Prosise holds in this weeks Stealing Signals. Also, the Vereen/Gallman split should be intriguing as both Perkins and Darkwa are declared out this week.