#1 By: RotoViz, November 7th, 2017 18:15
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2017/11/tuesday-morning-trades-week-10/
Welcome back to Tuesday Trades, a weekly column that will highlight players to target today before their prices change tomorrow. That old Fitzmagic has me in its spell. That old Fitzmagic that you weave so well. Despite entering almost every season as a backup, Ryan Fitzpatrick has averaged 13.5 games played over the last nine…
#2 By: Vincent, November 7th, 2017 18:45
I like the Hundley/Jordy calls and think it's a good idea to buy low with the abysmal showing still fresh in everyone's mind however does the schedule concern you? GBP face CHI, BAL, and PIT the next 3 weeks. There seems to be significant challenges other than the poor QB play/chemistry.
Can you expound more what your expectations are for the GB offense moving forward?
#3 By: Matt, November 7th, 2017 19:23
Do you like Celek vs NYG more than Ebron vs Cleveland? @devinmci
#4 By: Ginoooooobliii, November 7th, 2017 21:18
Thanks @devinmci, I started Hundley last week for 18 points, thanks in large part to his rushing TD. It was interesting to see TyMo's usage last night. Your words on Jordy are quite encouraging.
Anyhow, I am 5-4 in a 14 team league, currently at 4th place.
WR: Jordy, Cooper, Diggs, Coleman, JuJu
RB: Doug M, Rex, TyMo, C West and Foreman
TE: Gronk, Olsen...
If I can get a couple of weeks between 10-13, I should be in PO.
with that in mind, I am thinking of turning,
1. Corey Coleman + Doug M for CMC (his usage since Benji's trade is interesting, Dougie gets game scripted out too much). It can be Olsen here as well, but CAR has good schedule.
2. Jordy for Tyrod + Corey Davis (but owner isn't biting, on an unrelated note Jordy's value in my league has tanked to Hades' world)
3. Jordy straight up for Ingram or Kamara, no response there as well.
My biggest asset is Gronk at this point, any suggestions on how I can trade him and shore up some other position?
I hope to start, CMC, and Rex Burkhead along with 4 of Jordy, Diggs, Amari, Juju, Olsen as my 4 WRs with Gronk at TE.
Edit: My league is weird in the sense that every team roster's 2 QBs despite being a 1 QB league.
#5 By: How, November 7th, 2017 22:28
Would you trade Melvin Gordon (keepable for a 1st round pick) for Kamara (keepable for a 12th round pick) in a 12-team ppr league? I'm battling for a playoff spot and could use the Gordon boost, but is Kamara a small enough step down to stomach for the keeper value?
#6 By: devinmci, November 8th, 2017 01:44
@Violator The schedule definitely concerns me--it's a little like what happened to Goff last year when he got thrown into the fire. But CHI & BAL are a little less worrisome in the sense that they are less likely to be able to dominate the ball like Detroit did, so GB should have a couple more chances.
I do think the way to play the GB situation is through Hundley. He'll vulture scores and add points--maybe a lot of points--on the ground. But Jordy is going to be on a lot of benches right now, and so if you need a WR2/3 you might be able to get him at that price. He's risky, but if you are in a pinch, he has some upside, because they will look to him deep. I don't think GB will suddenly be a dynamic offense, but I also don't think they will always have so few downfield plays, or that they will connect on zero of them, so it feels like the bottom of the market to me.
I also didn't think the game was that abysmal. Mostly it was bad because they took the ball out of Hundley's hands to give it to their playmakers in space and hope they made plays. He threw a bunch of screens to Cobb and Jones that just got blown up behind the LOS. If they continue this strategy, it could be rough . . . but how long do you continue it if it never works? That's the gamble. McCarthy makes me nervous, but the WR group is too good to never throw past 5 yards, and Hundley hit on several throws in the 4th quarter . . . not just dumpoffs against prevent def.
Basically, if they make a couple more plays it might've been a ball game. And Hundley's running shortens the field. He can score on the ground from the 20. But in this game, he only got starting position past the 30 yard line ONCE. That's tough. They still scored on 4 of 9 drives. One drive killed by no-call on Slay. One drive killed by Adams drop. One drive hurt by Kendricks drop, then Hayden broke up a perfect throw to Adams with a great/lucky play. The last two drives were killed by called screens to Cobb to convert 3rd and short and 4th and short.
They're not getting a new play caller. But I thought Hundley executed the calls competently for the most part. People don't love his decision making or pocket presence, fine. It's his second career game, and you didn't see any of the crazy throws we're seeing from Simien, Osweiler, Bortles, etc, and they have still been supporting fantasy WRs. So it's a bad situation, but the badness is priced in, and I don't think the sky is falling.
#7 By: devinmci, November 8th, 2017 02:02
@mateoloco I need to update this entry because I didn't see that the 49ers have signed Logan Paulsen back to the roster. Celek is more of the blocking TE and Paulsen can catch, so this could be more risky. Celek is still an ok dart throw, but we don't know for sure, and it's not guaranteed that he takes over a bunch of routes. I would roll with Ebron, just because CLE is such a good matchup, and the Lions can't run on anybody, so EE could get some end zone targets. NYG is a good TE matchup, but we can't count on a lot of TD opportunities for SF.
@turndownforwatt Yeah, this is why I included Jordy--because he's going to be priced like a WR4. You're not going to be able to sell him for like Rishard Matthews in a lot of leagues. I would absolutely trade Coleman/Doug for CMC, but I doubt they accept--he's a low end RB1 in ppr. Ingram/Kamara are 1st/2nd round picks right now . . . Jordy is like a 7th/8th rounder or something, so that offer isn't close. I mean, you never know, but this would only work on those owners that always draft players that were great 3-4 years ago. 14 team league I probably hold Gronk...just such an advantage over everyone. I think I'd only do it if I could maybe downgrade to Evan Engram, and get maybe Devonta Freeman or better back. (I also think TyMo will get more run again, because the offense moved well with him. It'll be key to see if he gets the start, or if they try to "establish the run" with Jones to start the game again. McCarthy did make a point to say Jones wasn't in the doghouse or anything after the game.
@HowFantasy Since AP got traded Kamara and Gordon have been nearly identical. If I were cruising into the playoffs I would probably keep Gordon, because he has a little more chance, to my mind, to just drop a 3 TD game and lock up a playoff win. But Kamara's receiving work seems like one of the safest things in fantasy right now, and shouldn't change next year, so I would probably do that deal. I couldn't really tell you which RB will score more the rest of the way, and obviously a 12th is awesome compared to a 1st.
#8 By: Ginoooooobliii, November 8th, 2017 02:29
Hey @devinmci, thanks for your response. I am thinking of upping my offer to include Juju + Doug for CMC.
Secondly, I saw this tweet from Graham Barfield.
GrahamBarfield: If you combine WR and TE scoring (PPR Points), Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, and Rob Gronkowski would be WR5, WR6, and WR7 in PPG.
So, that got me thinking. What if I can trade away some of my WRs, and get Kelce and Ertz. We can start 2 Flex, and 2 WRs. So I can start Jordy, Amari/Diggs, kelce, Ertz and Gronk..
Basically I am assuming that everyone is not aware of this development and may not value these TEs as high. Thoughts? This is not a TE premium, just to clarify.
Edit: Using RV screener, TEs are better than the WRs I have on my team, except Amari. But not by much.
#9 By: devinmci, November 8th, 2017 03:35
Maybe you could get Ertz for Jordy + Juju if you're really lucky, because he has a bye plus a hamstring injury.
I dunno why anyone would be unaware of how good Kelce is . . . it's not like fantasy points are a secret stat. You're going to have trouble offering a guy with 100 fantasy points for another guy with 144...
#10 By: adrian, November 8th, 2017 08:12
Riddick ( ew)
R Kelly ( ew)
Somehow I'm 6-3... I had Beckham.... but
For some reason I really want Tevin coleman....would it smart of me to trade away Kelly or Williams? its a half PPR... lmk thanks!!!
#11 By: kdenigris, November 8th, 2017 10:05
.5 PPR, start 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE
QB: TyGod, Mariota
RB: Jerick, Duke, CJA, Booker, Lacy, Damien Williams
WR: AJ Green, Evans, Keenan, Diggs, Corey Davis
Have a AJG for Melvin straight up tabled until next week by the Melvin owner (who I'm playing this week). Do I hold off and pick up that conversation next week or do I explore either of these 2 options this week:
AJG + Mariota for McCoy
AJG for Freeman/CMC + Jordy
#12 By: Vincent, November 8th, 2017 10:05
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I pulled the trigger on Jordy as I am satisfied with the risk:reward ratio in this instance.
For those on the fence about GBP players take a look at this article. It helped me feel a lot better about the prospects of GBP offense moving forward.
#13 By: devinmci, November 8th, 2017 23:14
@headcoach Williams is probably going to outscore Coleman ROS, unless ATL starts throwing the ball to their RBs much more consistently. It may be that Sark is too mediocre to take advantage of those passes effectively. I'd trade Kelley though, whose upside seems firmly capped.
@kdenigris If you're intent on having that go-to RB, I would probably start negotiating now, because lots of things can happen to those owners' teams to make those players unavailable. I probably would not trade AJG for Freeman right now, even in half ppr, just because I don't know what's going on with ATL's offense--the passing usage is just not there for him so far. But I would try for the McCoy deal now, and I think I'd be open to CMC too--I have slightly less feel for ppr studs like CMC in half-ppr, but I imagine he compares reasonably favorably to AJG, and the possibility of him adding 10 carries a game would put him close to on par.
#14 By: Tuddy Roosevelt, November 9th, 2017 01:23
@devinmci In a standard league would you trade L.Miller + R.Matthews for M.Crabtree?
Houston offense is a huge concern. Miller provided decent value last year in similar circumstances although is now competing with Foreman for touches. Thoughts? Thanks.
#15 By: How, November 9th, 2017 08:13
Thanks for the advice! Does it change anything that I have Mark Ingram on the roster already (keepable for a 3rd next year)? And I'm on the playoff bubble, so I need as much as possible now.
#16 By: kdenigris, November 9th, 2017 10:23
@devinmci not worried about McCoy's usage last week? Considering it a 1 time blip as opposed to a potential longterm injury/game plan concern?
#17 By: Jason Humes, November 9th, 2017 11:38
I'm trying to find a way to pick up Mark Ingram. The guy that has him needs WR help and I have a few.
I'm thinking about trading AJG for Ingram & Jarvis Landry in PPR.
My other WR - Shep, Sanu, JuJu, Sanders
My RBs are - McCoy and DMartin
His WR are Landry, Fitzg, Marquis Lee
Am I overpaying by sending AJG away? Seem like a fair deal?
According to the buy low machine CIN is a sell for WR ROS and NO is the top buy for RB.
#18 By: Jason Humes, November 9th, 2017 11:42
I just sent this trade out this morning... it's on Yahoo and their point estimates are messed up so it is hard to "make" a trade look good...
Am I giving up too much?
I also tried this one but doubt he bites....
Thoughts appreciated !! Trade deadline is Saturday.
#19 By: devinmci, November 9th, 2017 18:54
@TuddyRoosevelt Probably would hold Miller--even in standard, the targets he's getting have been solid, and the run game will probably see even more emphasis without Watson. If you're desperate at WR, I'm okay with it, but it's a pretty expensive upgrade.
@HowFantasy I don't think so. Ingram has been excellent.
@kdenigris I'm a little concerned that McCoy tweaked his groin injury, but I haven't seen any reports about it whatsoever, and he's historically been good at playing with minor injuries. I would probably try to confirm his practice participation, etc, this week before trading for him. I'm not worried about a game plan change, only concerned about his health.
@jasonhumes Landry and Ingram seems more than fair for AJG. Hard to evaluate trades with that many players, but if the other team needs a TE badly, ASJ is a fine swap for DJax, and Julio/Crow are probably comparable to Green/Williams. I'd want the Julio side, but if they are worried about Julio's health, or that WR depth really helps in this league, maybe getting Sanders/Fuller compensates. Definitely not giving up too much, I don't think...Sanders/Fuller real question marks with their QB situations. I would probably take DJax out of the trade to help it go through, and take out whichever of Sanders/Fuller they don't want.
#20 By: Matt, November 9th, 2017 19:59
0.5 ppr. Here's my squad:
QB Wentz, Fitzpatrick
WR AB, Baldwin, Diggs, Cooper, Keenan Allen, Shepard
RB Kamara, James White, Aaron Jones, Alfred Morris, Burkhead
TE Gronk, Engram
Start 3 WR, 2 rb, 1 TE, 1 W/R
Since I can only start 1 of Gronk and Engram, I've been trying to trade Engram, Jones, and Morris for an upgrade at RB and a downgrade at Gronk injury insurance. Sent out offers for Hunt/ASJ (threw in Shepard as well but was rejected), waiting to hear on Freeman/Brate, Miller/H Henry, McKinnon/Doyle. My fear is that people don't realize how good Engram has been since the Giants receivers got hurt.
So, would you just stand pat (I'm averaging 15 more ppg than the 2nd highest scoring team) or offer up Gronk for someone like Fournette and hope that Engram's production continues to compare to Gronk's? Trade deadline is Saturday.
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