#1 By: devinmci, September 15th, 2018 17:17
We've been having some good discussion over in the Re-draft trade thread, but I wanted to start a general thread to discuss topics raised in my weekly trades column. If you were a regular reader last season, welcome back. If you're new, hello!
A quick reminder that my emphasis in this column is anticipating changes in player value and identifying trade windows that may be opening or closing. I will frequently suggest trading away players that I think will continue to play well or even improve their value (i.e. George Kittle)--because these are players that other owners actually want, and will give up good assets for. I will tend to avoid recommending buying players that are obviously skyrocketing in value (Tevin Coleman), unless there is reason to believe the price correction isn't going far enough (Chris Thompson).
No column can address every type of league at once, so this will be a good space to delve into more specific real life situations, as well as to revisit situations that may be changing throughout the week. The emphasis will be on Redraft leagues, but dynasty talk is welcome, especially when we get into the later stages of the season.
#2 By: devinmci, September 15th, 2018 17:26
There's been a lot of chatter this week about Alex Collins and Buck Allen after the Thursday Night Game. Baltimore players may be locked for trading in your league settings, so this may not be immediately actionable, but Alex Collins is a player to target right now.
There is a growing narrative that Collins is not delivering on his ADP, and that Buck Allen was an underrated threat to his receiving and goal line touches.
It's true that if Buck Allen continues to get a chunk of GL work, that hurts, but Collins is a player whose perceived value is decreasing while his actual value has increased, due to the Ken Dixon injury. Real value going up while perceived value is going down is our ideal trade target situation.
Thursday night was a good gamescript for Allen, with Baltimore trailing. Yet Collins looked excellent in the passing game, and Allen continued to look inefficient in all phases (not including his GL carry). Ken Dixon played ~30% of the snaps in Week 1 and is on the shelf. Yes, this helps Allen, but not at Collins' expense. Collins should also be trending up right now, so considering getting offers out there, especially if you have an 0-2 Collins owner in your league.
#3 By: hrr5010, September 15th, 2018 22:53
Weird how the plurality of fantasy analysts love themselves some Buck Allen, the player who lost his job to Alex Collins.
#4 By: devinmci, September 17th, 2018 00:55
BUY - RECAP
Jimmy G - Regardless of how good Garoppolo is, Shanahan is going to put him in position to succeed. This is probably the bottom of the market for Garoppolo.
- Two TDs in a solid bounceback in a game where he only had to throw 26
times to win.
Matt Breida - Take advantage of the negativity around Breida to snag a strong committee member, who retains great upside in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
- Breida went off. 11 for 138 and a TD, adding 3 for 21 on 4 targets
(equally as many as any other 49er). 4th highest RB score of the week
Chris Thompson - An owner may be tempted to “sell high” when in fact we may not have seen Thompson’s ceiling yet in the passing game.
- 6th highest RB score, with 13 catches on 14 targets for 92 yards.
Alex smith is creating a monster.
Derrick Henry - Marcus Mariota’s injury could be bad news for the offense, but that may also make Henry a bit easier to acquire.
- Blaine Gabbert will not be good news in the short term, but he was
able to lead three scoring drives, and Henry's 18 carries are nice.
TEN has a tough early season schedule, and is playing without their
THREE best offensive tackles. The buying window remains open, but the
injury picture really clouds the outlook for this offense for now.
Proceed with caution, but Henry remains an option if you need to get
a solid committee RB on the cheap.
Ito Smith - Hill has now been promoted to the active roster, possibly signaling more concern for Devonta Freeman’s knee than has been publicly acknowledged. In dynasty or deeper redraft leagues, look to add Smith as a throw-in before rather than after he sees opportunity in the passing game.
- In fact, Freeman has now been declared out for a while, and Ito
played quite a bit against Carolina. He only saw one target (and did
have a fumble that fortunately was recovered by ATL), but got a
healthy 9 carries for 46 yards (5.1 ypc). An auspicious debut overall
for the rookie.
Pierre Garcon - The buzz is mostly around Dante Pettis and George Kittlebut with Marquise Goodwin possibly limited, the arrow is pointing up on Garcon, even as he remains under the radar.
- Goodwin did in fact sit out. Not a huge game for Garcon, but he did
lead the 49ers in receiving with 4 catches for 57 yards, and neither
Pettis or Kittle did anything.
Phillip Dorsett - The window will be closed if Brady and Dorsett connect on a deep ball.
- Jacksonville gave New England a ton of trouble and will probably be
their most difficult matchup of the year. But Dorsett led Patriots
WRs with 7 targets and 5 receptions, and almost got a deep ball down
the sideline that Brady overshot him on.
Sammy Watkins - If you’re buying Geronimo Allison, you are absolutely buying Watkins who played 91 percent of snaps on an offense that looks poised to blow the doors off. This doesn’t appear to be the last shootout the Chiefs will be in, so I’m buying in cheap if I can.
- Sammy went for 6 catches and 100 yards, adding a 31 yard rush. He
somehow didn't get a TD despite Mahomes tossing six of them. This
offense is on fire right now.
David Njoku - The big box score number for Njoku was his 88 percent of snaps.
- Another quiet result for Njoku, but he tied Landry and Higgins with 7
targets. The opportunity continues to be there.
Jack Doyle - Doyle ran an incredible 55 routes against the Bengals.
- Another quiet one for Doyle, but he was second on the team in targets
after Hilton with 5, in a low-volume passing game that Indy led
wire-to-wire. Again, the opportunity looks to be there.
Jimmy Graham - Graham’s ugly Week 1 line is feeding off-season narratives that Graham is a touchdown-dependent low-upside player at this stage of his career. That is belied by Graham’s 98 percent snap count, which is rarified territory for a tight end.
- Graham was 2nd on the Packers in targets with 8, and put up an
impressive 6 recs for 95 yards. He's not done yet. He's been around a
long time, but he's the same age as Jared Cook and six years younger
than Ben Watson.
#5 By: hrr5010, September 17th, 2018 14:12
Time for a quick story about how I traded George Kittle.
I took over an orphan dynasty team in a league with some pretty cool quirks. Namely:
1) No waivers in season
2) Combined rookie/veteran draft held in the offseason. There's multiple phases to this portion, so it spans the entire offseason.
3) In season rosters are 35 players. We are required to cutdown to 20 players once the season is over.
4) Vanilla PPR, with no TE premium
The orphan that I took over was in poor shape. It still kind of is and I need to try to make more trades going forward.
Anyway. This orphan had Kittle, Kyle Rudolph, and Delanie Walker on it. I shipped off Walker as soon as I took over, but also wanted to turn either Kittle or Rudy into assets that can help this team compete today. The lack of premium for TEs means that a high-end TE is a nice to have, and I'd be fine with only one of Kittle/Rudy as my set and forget player. I'll live with the volatility.
I was able to convert Kittle into Keelan Cole, and the other players 5th and 6th round pick. This means i should have first crack at any productive veterans after cutdowns occur. Luckily this trade was accepted an hour or so before the 1 pm kickoff, or I'd have not got the value I required in order to move Kittle.
But of a bummer I couldn't squeeze slightly more out, but my initial counter to his opening offer was quite aggressive. Luckily he was motivated to snag Kittle, and I was motivated to move him so I'm fine losing value.
#6 By: devinmci, September 17th, 2018 15:49
This is such a good example for thinking about how and why to trade in dynasty. It's difficult to evaluate if you're good or bad at trading, but if you trade conservatively, looking to exploit recency bias, and to sell short term production for long term value, then you can assume your trades are positive over the long term.
One conclusion, then, is that you should trade as much as possible, within your parameters of "good trades", and that each week of news creates trade windows that are a limited resource.
If Sammy Watkins results had been one week delayed, you could have been looking at a situation where you could go from Kittle, a borderline dynasty TE1 pre-season, to Cole in Week 1, to Sammy in Week 2, and suddenly have what might be the best WR on the best passing offense.
#7 By: Randy Marsh, September 18th, 2018 09:38
As somebody who invested in David Johnson, can you share your thoughts on if he's a buy, hold or sell?
If he is a sell, can you share a few targets to trade him for?
#8 By: Trey, September 18th, 2018 09:59
We talking redraft or dyno here?
#9 By: Randy Marsh, September 18th, 2018 10:09
Sorry I should've been more specific. Redraft HPPR.
#10 By: Trey, September 18th, 2018 10:32
I mean if someone is going to offer you even close to the draft premium you paid I’d pull the trigger. Most likely you’re going to be getting low ball offers, but I’d definitely let it be known he’s available. Who knows maybe someone isn’t paying attention to how bad this offense is.
#11 By: Randy Marsh, September 18th, 2018 14:23
It's doubtful anybody would give me anything close to the premium I paid but at this point I'm getting vibes of 2016 Todd Gurley.
#12 By: devinmci, September 18th, 2018 14:46
@Randy He's a hold or a buy. Basically, I thought Sam Bradford's play style would be fine for DJ, even if the offense wasn't that good. That's looking like it's not quite true, but people are overreacting to this Rams game. The Rams have maybe the best defense in the league, and Sean McVay called this game this best defensive performance he's seen from them. They obviously wanted to take away David Johnson and did so. But the panic over him not getting targets is a little overblown, because he got 9 targets in week one--he's still on an 88 target pace. Also if Fitzgerald is going to miss any time, they're not going to have any choice but to use DJ in the slot as well, and he should rack up cheap points, even if the efficiency is not quite there.
In terms of selling, if you're 2-0 in particular and a gambler, I think you could consider trading him for Le'Veon, but that would take serious stones. Or if you want a package of distressed assets, you could try to get Dalvin Cook+ or LeSean McCoy++, but all of these seem worse to me than just sitting tight.
#13 By: kdenigris, September 18th, 2018 15:16
What type of price are you willing to pay to acquire Collins? So far I've got some solid ZRB hits and decent WR depth so I'm pretty content with the squad, but if Collins can be had on the cheap it may be worth it. Based on the below would you make a play for him?
BE: Ekeler, RoJo, Chubb, Burkhead, Robby A, Enunwa, K. Cole, Watkins
As a general trade strategy question, at what point in the season do you look to start parlaying depth pieces into studs in the form of 2 for 1s? I'm sure it is too early for that now, but probably want to start looking to do that somewhere near the midpoint before others are less willing to part with their studs for the stretch run?
#14 By: Ginoooooobliii, September 19th, 2018 02:44
@devinmci @hrr5010, I’ve been trying hard to get either Allen Robinson or Robert woods. I offered Tevin coleman + Allison for Allen Robinson. If that doesn't work out, I was thinking of offering Morris + Allison for woods. Both Arob and Woods' airyards and Wopr are very strong and Woods hasn't had a big game yet. Question is : have you seen any trades involving woods. Second, where would you place woods today? Do you think a Morris would be too low? How about Coleman for woods?
1pt ppr btw. Other wrs are MT, hill and Juju and rbs are Ingram barkley Coleman Morris ekeler Chubb kerryon.
#15 By: kdenigris, September 19th, 2018 07:21
Not sure I’d be in a rush to get rid of Coleman.. he’s looking at RB1 opportunity for the next month at least. Definitely not as a straight swap for Woods, who would be your WR4 on that squad. I’d try to get someone to bite on Morris/Kerryon + Allison. Morris’ upside is massively capped by Brieda and (as usual) Detroit can’t seem to sort out their backfield in a way that fantasy players can rely on.
#16 By: kdenigris, September 19th, 2018 10:49
@BRB_3 Great article, as always. Interested in Hunt as a buy-- what are you willing to pay for him? 12tm .5 PPR
BE: R. Freeman, Burkhead, Morris, A. Jones, Godwin, Fuller
I was thinking of offering something like like Conner/Thompson + Godwin/Fuller. I'm a bit shallow on WR depth so i'm a little hesitant to give up Godwin/Fuller, but my top 3 are about as studly as it gets so I'm not super worried about it. I don't think any of my bench RBs currently hold enough value to get him to bite so I'd have to offer Conner or Thompson. Or do I stand pat and continue to ride the free production of Conner as long as I can?
#17 By: Ed Haver, September 19th, 2018 11:11
Someone offered me Kareem Hunt & Jimmy Graham for David Johnson & Travis Kelce in a 1/2 ppr league. I agree with the earlier statement that Johnson will bounce back to some degree, but there's still a lot of risk in being a part of that Cardinal offense. I think Hunt's bounce back chances are much greater. However, giving up Kelce is a big price. I'm torn. I'm just curious about others' opinions on this deal?
#18 By: Matt, September 19th, 2018 11:47
I think the downgrade at TE is way too big to consider that.
#19 By: kdenigris, September 19th, 2018 11:48
I think Kelce is way too big a price to pay. The early returns on DJ are ugly but you'd effectively be giving up your 1st and 3rd rounder for a guy you presumably just took top 4 a month ago. It HAS to get better for DJ (right?????)
#20 By: Matt, September 19th, 2018 11:57
@devinmci a guy in my league is floating both Alex Collins and Sammy Watkins. It's a 10 team PPR superflex league, start 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 W/R/T, 1 Q/W/R/T. Here's my squad:
QB: Brees, Cousins, Wentz
RB: Miller, T Coleman, L McCoy, K Johnson
WR: Julio, Keenan, Diggs, Amari, Lockett (1 pt per 25 return yards makes him valuable), Robby, Dorsett
He has 4 QB (Mahomes, Dakk, Bortles, Carr) so any of my 3 QBs would be a fairly significant upgrade over his QB2. He's very deep at WR but only has 3 RB (CMC, Collins, Jamaal Williams).
Which QB would you offer? I was thinking of offering 1 of my QBs + McCoy + Robby for Collins, Watkins, and Bortles. I'm thinking that Wentz would have the most trade value relative to his likely production. He's due for regression, is coming back very early from the knee injury, and his WR core is pretty banged up both short (Alshon) and long term (Wallace). What are your thoughts?
next page →