#1 By: RotoViz, November 26th, 2016 13:11
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2016/11/where-will-the-2017-class-fit-in-the-dynasty-top-100/
Recently I published my midseason dynasty rankings, looking at the top 50 in Part 1 and 51 to 100 in Part 2. Many leagues currently have a moratorium on trades, but others have no such limitations. Our evaluations of players likely to go in the 2017 NFL draft are obviously preliminary, but making informed trades…
#2 By: Eric, November 27th, 2016 00:59
Excellent work as usual Shawn. Ive been interested in how I should value 2017 picks with regards to current players and this really helped put things in perspective.
The one player on your list that really stands out is Alshon Jeffrey. Why so low on him? Injuries? Situation? Work Ethic? Ive been trying to buy low on him but it seems most owners I deal with want around 2 1sts worth of value which has been too steep for me. Im wondering if he is even worth pursuing.
On the opposite side of the spectrum Ive been snatching up Diggs on the cheap everywhere. Usually for late 1sts. The highest price I paid was Cobb. I think you and Rotoviz have been way ahead of the dynasty community in properly valuing him.
Thanks again for your insight.
#3 By: Shawn Siegele , November 28th, 2016 14:31
Thanks, I really appreciate that. On Jeffery, all of those issues you mentioned, plus poor performance when available this season. He could end up with a lot more target competition next year, and he's no longer a clear trade target based on age. (I'm a past and current owner, too, so he's a guy I've liked a lot in the past.)
#4 By: Austin, December 27th, 2016 18:10
The guy that surprises me is Tyrell Williams. I traded to get him with the 1.11 and thought I got good value.
#5 By: Jake B, January 9th, 2017 17:25
Ancient article, I know. You have any expanded thoughts on AP? DFL December mocks have him around 125.
Bought an orphan needing a viable RB starter for 2017. Worth giving up the 2.05 to take a flyer on him?
#6 By: Shawn Siegele , January 9th, 2017 17:56
It would be tempting to acquire him at that price since it likely represents something of a floor. If he ends up on a team that either has better run blocking (Oakland) or a better overall scoring environment (Washington, for example), then you can probably resell him for a lot more value. If he ends up back in Minnesota or on another unfavorable squad, then you haven't lost a lot and can probably still re-trade at a similar price.
The 2017 draft has lost a little firepower with Freeman and Chubb staying, but 2.05 can probably be used on someone like Jeremy McNichols in something of a worst case.
My personal preference would be to own the 2.05, but a short term Peterson trade might be a bridge to trading back into the first round.
#7 By: Jake B, January 9th, 2017 18:35
Awesome response, thank you!
1st dynasty experience... I have much to learn.
#8 By: Jake B, January 9th, 2017 19:29
The offeror also tossed out Yeldon for AP in lieu of the 2.05.
More or less comfortable with that?
I'm really but sure what to make of Yeldon. Ivory busting helped, but that's barely an NFL offense.
#9 By: Shawn Siegele , January 10th, 2017 20:46
I would much rather have the 2.05 than Yeldon. His flexibility as a receiver offers a tiny bit of hope that he could turn his career around, but he wasn't a particularly good prospect and has now had two poor seasons.
(Another thought as you build this dynasty team: In making trades at this point in the offseason, I'd emphasize total value and not worry about positional depth/strength at all. I was looking at one of my teams the other day, and after one season, 16 of the 26 players currently on the roster were acquired through trades or FA.)
#10 By: Jake B, January 11th, 2017 15:15
I wound up eeking out AP & a 2018 3rd rounder for Yeldon. Very happy.
Your second point on emphasizing value is a timely one. This orphan I picked up is in a superflex, and I'm rocking Brock O and Carson Palmer as my only viable QBs. What feelers I've sent out for upgrades give me the impression that I'll have to overpay big time if I want to have even 1 plug and play option. I've floated the 1.05 with nary a glimmer of hope.
It's about time I learned to be patient.
#11 By: JS56, March 2nd, 2017 14:42
This is a great way to think about the draft picks in the context . When is the update coming? Specifically, how should I think about Dez Bryant?
#12 By: Shawn Siegele , March 2nd, 2017 15:14
Thanks, I'm hoping to have an update pretty quickly here after the combine. Freeman, Chubb, and Sutton didn't declare, which obviously makes this a bit dated.
We're getting the rest of the deep looks at the WRs by class (RJR, SR, RSR) out today. And we'll hopefully have a pre-combine look at our predicted ADP. (The combine is starting to roll now, but we did our composite a few days ago so we could get a feel for how it changes things.)
So we should have a ton of information on this broad topic today and through next week. And then hopefully the update. It's fun for me, and hopefully for readers. And then it definitely helps me try to decide on trades and picks. I'm in a Dispersal draft today, and the 1.01 and 1.05 were both in, so those were tough choices.