#1 By: RotoViz, May 11th, 2018 16:15
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2018/05/wide-receiver-breakouts-how-long-should-you-hold-on-the-wrong-read-no-36/
Welcome to the 36th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes.…
#2 By: bmoff, May 14th, 2018 12:17
Incredible series. Thank you. All this information has significantly changed my dynasty strategy, especially towards WRs. Can't thank you guys at Rotoviz enough.
#3 By: Blair Andrews, May 14th, 2018 12:38
Awesome! I really appreciate it, and I'm glad it's proving valuable (well, I guess that remains to be seen ). What's cool about a lot of this information is that although it goes against some of the standard dynasty strategy stuff in the industry, it fits exactly with the strategies that a lot of other smart RV writers like Shawn Siegele, Brian Malone, and Pat Kerrane have written about or found to be useful.
#4 By: bmoff, May 14th, 2018 12:52
Exactly. I'm on board 100%. It's really changed my mindset as far rookies and pick values go.
Related to Mike Braude's article here (http://rotoviz.com/2018/05/corey-davis-chris-godwin-and-rookie-derangement-syndrome/), how would you classify the breakout chances of some of these second year players? Obviously, JuJu is there. Corey Davis SHOULD be there this year assuming he doesn't get hurt again. But should I invest resources in pursuing some of these other borderline guys? Golladay, Godwin, M. Williams, Zay Jones, Taywan Taylor, the Jaguar receivers, etc? After the first two, I'm on the fence.
#5 By: Blair Andrews, May 14th, 2018 14:47
I think Golladay and Godwin both have good chances to break out. Williams was probably overdrafted in the real draft but he was also maybe never really healthy last year, so he could do something. He's not someone I'm going out of my way to acquire. I feel similarly about John Ross but I like him a bit more and I think he's easier to acquire. Zay Jones has potentially the easiest path to a breakout, assuming this off-field stuff amounts to nothing and his QB play this year isn't so bad that it prevents him from doing anything.
Taylor and the Jaguars guys are a slightly harder case to make in part because they're competing with other potential breakouts. Neither Cole nor Westbrook quite has the draft capital to suggest they would necessarily be early breakouts. One of them could easily take the WR2 role there, but which one is a harder question. Taylor's cost is so low at this point that there's little downside to investing.