#1 By: RotoViz, September 13th, 2016 14:48
Originally published at: http://rotoviz.com/2016/09/week-1-air-yards-wrs-to-buy/
Each week I will be breaking out wide receiver air yards and using the data to attempt to spot undervalued WRs. Air yards explained Air yards give us a complete view of a WR’s game. They show us what volume of yards are thrown at a guy, what amount he caught, and how many yards…
#2 By: iamjacks, September 13th, 2016 15:57
Very cool! I don't understand why Fuller wasn't on that first list. It would appear that he was tied for air yards with Robinson when sorting the second table. Either way, holy shit batman...just watched his highlights against the Bears.
#3 By: Jordan, September 13th, 2016 16:28
So was actually offered Dez/Floyd for Deandre...according to this article it should be a no brainer, right? Was a victim of Keenan going down
#4 By: Ginoooooobliii, September 13th, 2016 16:36
Both Fuller and Tyrell are on my ww. Out with Keenan and Torrey, in with Fuller and Tyrell (hopefully)
#5 By: PatW, September 13th, 2016 16:59
So how much do we love Fuller? Would you make this deal?
Fuller + Lacy for Jamaal + Desean Jackson
I think at this point in time, Jamaal and Lacy are probably pretty even for me, so it likely comes down to whether you like Fuller or Desean more.
#6 By: dkpsports, September 13th, 2016 18:05
Any idea of how consistent Team Air yards are from week 1 vs rest of season? I guess I'm asking how game script dependent they are, or can we expect some consistency going forward?
In particular, I'm looking at TY Hilton (high air yards, low MS) vs Sammy Watkins (lower air yards, very high MS).
I guess we can qualitative try to think about it, but I was wondering what the numbers might show.
#7 By: Dennis, September 13th, 2016 19:38
good question, wondering too
#8 By: Josh Hermsmeyer, September 13th, 2016 21:40
He beasted out. I'm incredibly bullish on him. Thanks for the kind words.
@j2cain I would probably do that given your situation with Keenan.
@turndownforwatt Do eeeet.
@wawaqueso I think Fuller could end up having the better year, and even if he doesn't there is a strong chance it won't be that much worse that a healthy Desean season.
@dkpsports I looked at Air years season over season (~.4 correlation) but not game to game. In general, game to game correlations are very poor. This is a large reason why I do not prefer DFS to seasonal. Too much variance.
As for Hilton vs Watkins, Sammy had unreal air yards to end the year. But you want to balance that against target volume and health. I think TY is the better play with the information we have right now, but that could very well turn out to be wrong. Sammy's ceiling is probably higher.
Thanks for the comments! Much appreciated.
#9 By: murph, September 15th, 2016 14:38
In a 12 team non PPR league, Kenny Stills was just dropped. Do I drop Steve Smith (or Vincent Jackson) for him. Is that a good move or an overreaction to Stills' air yards in week 1 and Smith not doing anything on 9 targets? My top four wideouts are Green, Hopkins, Landry, and Sanders so I'm really looking for upside and I like the Dolphins offense better than the Ravens.
#10 By: Ginoooooobliii, September 16th, 2016 14:58
@friscojosh Hi Josh,
I am trying to turn my roster around a bit. I currently have Cobb, and Gordon and through a few trades, I might be able to get Marvin Jones, Jennings ad Decker. Would you do that trade?
#11 By: Josh Hermsmeyer, September 17th, 2016 11:23
If the trade is Cobb and Gordon for Jones, Jennings and Decker absolutely!
#12 By: Matt, September 17th, 2016 11:48
How high are you on Jordan Matthews ROS? I just looked at Yahoo!'s projections (done by Pro Football Focus) for my 0.5ppr (and 0.25 for 1st down regardless of carry or rush) for ROS and they have him as WR11. I've got TY Hilton and was intially gonna try to trade TY for Matthews + a small piece but I noticed that TY is projected to be WR16, so according to their projections I should be the one who's adding. I'm really high on Matthews (which is why I'm trying to trade for him) but do we really think he'll be a WR1 ROS? How much stock do we put into that first game?
#13 By: Eric, September 17th, 2016 13:13
Looking over these while projecting in the PM and noticed how few AY that Sanu had last week. The team as a whole really didn't have that many either. Gives me something more to consider on Atlanta.
#14 By: Ginoooooobliii, September 17th, 2016 15:41
Not exactly, I was hoping to get Jennings but owner only wants to give Vereen. Basically one owner wanted to give Marvin Jones + Vereen for Cobb. Another owner wants to give decker for Gordon. So in essence it turns out to be Jones Vereen and decker for Gordon and cobb
#15 By: Dennis, September 19th, 2016 11:42
Do it, vereen seems to be Eli's preferred guy...Jones with stafford's play, lions schedule + Decker's stock up a bit with marshall's mcl sprain... make this worth worth it..and im not positive jennings will be better than sugar shane anyway