#1 By: Jeff, August 12th, 2018 12:25
Will you be doing your top 15 zero RB candidates articles this year? Its half the reason i subscribe
#2 By: Shawn Siegele , August 12th, 2018 12:40
I will Jeff, and I really appreciate the note.
15-11 is written and will go out sometime, probably in the afternoon, on Monday.
The next two sections should also be out this week. I can say that I got a good chunk of the players off my list in the Apex Experts draft that just concluded.
#3 By: Husky8585, August 12th, 2018 23:37
It's the reason I subscribe. Can't wait to get more insight into your analysis and thought process.
#4 By: GoodOne, August 13th, 2018 12:59
I've been waiting all summer to see who the next Kamara could be!
#5 By: Matt, August 13th, 2018 16:11
In the blurb on Ekeler you compared his efficiency to Kamara, Chris Thompson, and Corey Grant. Kamara and Thompson are household names in zero-rb circles, but Grant is not. He's someone I've had my eye on as he was really impressive in limited opportunities in Jacksonville, particularly in the playoffs. I know Yeldon is the perennial zero-rb guy in Jacksonville but he's never done much with his opportunities. But I also know that you said that you "emphasize backfields with two legitimate players as opposed to those with three or more", which may characterize Jacksonville.
Is Grant a guy not to draft but to keep your eye on to see how the workload shakes out between him and Yeldon? What sort of a chance do you think Grant would have if Fournette were out (which is not unlikely)? And is Grant someone you like in dynasty?
#6 By: Jason, August 13th, 2018 21:01
@FF_Contrarian I’m not sure he’ll make the list, but how high would you view someone like Chase Edmonds who has a lot of things working in his favor and seems to be a clear #2 in his offense... but is behind someone like DJ.
Seems like he’d only be startable in the case of a DJ injury (but in that case would be a solid start). When drafting a ZRB target, do you require someone who has alternative paths to relevance other than injury?
#7 By: Shawn Siegele , August 13th, 2018 21:06
@mateoloco Grant and Yeldon are in that tricky area where a Fournette injury would benefit both of them, but not enough to do more than stash them in really deep leagues and keep them on watch lists.
I like the No. 3 guy in some very specific circumstances - Cannon, for example, when the two guys ahead of him are really weak and he's a good bet for some standalone receiving value [and, of course, completely free price] - but it's tough to invest in backfields where you probably need multiple changes in touch allocation to get a viable flex starter.
Specifically with Grant, I like him a lot as a runner. While his explosive plays are possibly a small sample mirage, the Jaguars certainly need to at least find out what they have since Yeldon is a replacement level talent.
Unfortunately, Yeldon has demonstrated some mild ability as a receiver, which splits off a big chunk of the high-value touches in the case of a Fournette injury. So I'm more a fan of Grant on the reality side, but I do have him on my personal watch list.
@FantasyNerd Edmonds would probably be the next guy on the list, or, if you've missed on Ekeler and Breida and are still a little early for a last round (or watch list) guy like Cannon, he would be another option in that range.
Edmonds is a poor man's version of those two guys and would have a ton of value in the case of a David Johnson injury. When I'm putting together my initial rosters, I do lean toward players with standalone value. (It's better from a points perspective, and it keeps you focused on adding talented players instead of getting caught in the trap of wasting roster spots trying to play injuries.)
That said, Edmonds could end up with some standalone value as the RBs should be big targets in that offense, and they'll need to focus on not overworking Johnson.
On Williams/Jones, those are definitely important points. I do have a GB back in the next five, but I'm drafting both. While I've been a pretty big Jones guy, Williams is very tempting since he's inexpensive and they still go close to each other in most drafts. Montgomery does complicate matters, although if either Williams or Jones is the sole starter (with Montgomery as the change of pace) that starter will have big time value.
#8 By: Jason, August 13th, 2018 21:13
@FF_Contrarian you have mentioned in the past that the backup RB actually becomes MORE valuable than the starter when the starter gets injured. Would this lead you to want exposure to Aaron Jones? Or is the presence of TyMo (a 3rd RB) too much to overcome?
If this is the case and it’s easiest to predict early season RB production, would it make sense to target the cheaper backup in such a high powered offense since he seemingly stands to benefit greatly with an injury?
Sorry if all this will be covered in future updates lol
#9 By: Jason, August 13th, 2018 21:38
It’s kind of amazing RBs in GB, NE, IND are all so affordable this year. Agree with your thoughts on GB backs especially - find myself adding one in almost every single draft.
#10 By: kyle, August 15th, 2018 12:04
@FF_Contrarian is phillip lindsay going to be on the list Shawn?
#11 By: Shawn Siegele , August 15th, 2018 12:10
He's not, but I love him as a watch list guy and have him stashed on taxi squads. Colm and I talked about why he's such a bargain - and threat to Freeman - on the first episode of Overtime.
#12 By: kyle, August 15th, 2018 12:14
thanks for reply. Yea im loving the show. BTW. Having trouble deciding between Cannon/Boston Scott/Lindsay in taxi. May have to figure out a way to get all of them.
#13 By: Shawn Siegele , August 15th, 2018 13:08
Scott appears to have a little trickier path to value, but I love those late guys.
Thanks for the note about the show. Colm has done a nice job putting it together.
#14 By: Gutterballs, August 15th, 2018 13:46
Interesting thoughts on Jamaal Williams. I know you also are a fan of Tre'Quan Smith. Would you trade Williams for Smith in a dynasty league?
I feel like the window to "sell high" on Williams may be this offseason with the Jones suspension. However, you also seem to believe Williams has a decent shot of remaining the starting RB in Green Bay even after the suspension.
#15 By: Shawn Siegele , August 15th, 2018 14:12
I think he's got a good chance. Worst case - and it's not really worst case, but worst optimistic case - he has the opportunity to be the Mark Ingram to Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery co-starring as Alvin Kamara.
But I also think it makes sense to sell at the right price. I had a decent amount of Aaron Jones in dynasty, and I've been selling Jones all offseason and buying Williams, mostly because I've found I can get decent value for Jones (Bryce Love, most recently; that's probably a whole separate discussion, but Love looks undervalued in devy.) and can get Williams included as a throw-in.
That specific window may have closed, so I would consider buying and selling the other way now. Or certainly if Williams starts the season hot.
As far as Tre'Quan, you can probably get two players of his level for Williams (or some combination of two lesser playrs), but I absolutely love him. I expect him to be the No. 2 in NO already this season.
#16 By: Matt, August 15th, 2018 17:12
@FF_Contrarian in your two articles today you've were bullish on both Duke Johnson and Chris Godwin. I know that these articles are for redraft and not dynasty, but I've been using your Dynasty rankings as a reference for a start up and for both of those players your ranking was more pessimistic than your RotoViz brethren. For Johnson your ranking was 35 compared to the average of 23, and for Godwin it was 68 compared to the average of 36. Is there a reason for that? Is it possible that these rankings are old and the news about Godwin being the no. 2 has elevated his ranking?
One thing that would make the rankings more actionable is to put the date of the ranking above or near the individual ranker's name, things are happening every day that should affect the rankings (injuries, suspension, legal trouble, etc.).
#17 By: Shawn Siegele , August 15th, 2018 17:38
That's an excellent point @mateoloco, and we'll incorporate that again. (We had the dates listed for a while, but the method we were using was causing some other site problems.)
As to those specific guys, I started prioritizing Godwin for redraft purposes around the time of the 20 Rounds of Death. I have still have concerns about the offense and the direction of the team - and his specific long-term ceiling with Evans around - but I want to have exposure in redraft. I should represent that better in the dynasty rankings.
On Johnson, I'm higher in redraft than dynasty. (I think you can build more upside for the price in longer term formats.)
#18 By: Ryan Blakeslee, August 16th, 2018 00:33
I’ve been really low on Duke after targeting him last year. It’s not the presence of Hyde/Chubb but Landry that worries me about Duke. I’ve always assumed Landry would own the slot but perhaps that assumption is wrong. I guess the comp might be Tate/Riddick from the Lions sharing low adot territory.
#19 By: Shawn Siegele , August 16th, 2018 01:12
I'm of the belief that a contemporary NFL offense almost can't have too many quality underneath targets, but it is always good to be aware of how target overlap might cause a problem. And you've hit on a good comparison with Tate/Riddick. Riddick averaged 5.7 receptions a game in 2016 during a season where Tate had 135 targets. (Tate's numbers were much worse in the games Riddick played; we also saw last year with the injection of Kamara in NO that the WRs suffered, not the backs.)
Another comparison might be Julian Edelman and the Patriots backs. Shane Vereen had 69 targets when Edelman had 151 in 2013 (other backs added another 50), and James White had 86 targets when Edelman had 159 in 2016 (other backs added 32). Last year, without Edelman, White had 72 (other backs added another another 76).
We also have a lot of evidence to suggest that Landry is a bigger talent than Tate/Edelman and that Johnson is a bigger talent than those respective backs, and I anticipate the Browns using them in ways that reflect that. But it's also true that Detroit and NE have much better QB play, and that can make a big difference as you think about ceiling.
#20 By: Jason, August 16th, 2018 07:53
@FF_Contrarian I’m sure this change would be reflected in ADP as well - but how would Dez signing and/or Gordon returning affect your view of Landry? I’m assuming he might even become a stronger buy at a reduced price?
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